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If you really want a good idea about how good a forecast is, check out the scientific forecaster discussion for that forecast. Usually, whoever ran the models and wrote the forecast will explain their reasonings for what they predict, and what the weaknesses are in the forecast.

Most meteorologists know when their forecasts are going to be good, or not, and will admit so in the discussion.

If you use wunderground.com, they will even "translate" some of the weathergeek-eese into english for you.

And now, back to your regularly scheduled Texas CHL forum day discussion.