I feel the worst for the families, who seem to be a very long way away from having any closure.
Imagine not knowing the fate of your loved ones.
Tragic.
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- Wed Apr 02, 2014 8:15 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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- Tue Mar 25, 2014 8:15 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Interesting analysis and confirmed by checking against a known source. Good work, it seems.philip964 wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/inmarsat-interrog ... ector.html
Doppler effect use to determine the plane had taken the Southern route. Thus the announcement today.
Now, my only question on this data is... What other 777's fly that particular route into the abyss of the Southern Ocean?The company then compared its theoretical flight path with data received from Boeing 777s it knew had flown the same route, he said, and it matched exactly.
I fly over the North Pole frequently, when heading to Asia. Is a South Pole route typical from anywhere in the Pacific?
ETA: Answer seems to be yes... http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forum ... n/2372669/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
JHB to SYD would probably provide good data for comparison.
- Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:39 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
The investigation seems to be narrowing... Still, nobody's put a hand on any debris confirmed to be from that flight.steveincowtown wrote:Sounds like they are now saying it did definitely go down in the southern Indian Ocean.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/24/world/asi ... ?hpt=hp_t1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 went down over the southern Indian Ocean, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said Monday, citing a new analysis of satellite data by a British satellite company and accident investigators.
- Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:57 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Agreed.. Knowing where you are but not being able to tell anyone isn't very helpful.Keith B wrote:Provided you had cell coverage to call. A GPS does you no good without the capability of making contact. There is not cell coverage in many large areas of the world. Even the US has LOTS of areas that have limited to no cellular service.RoyGBiv wrote:Yes... Within a few feet anywhere in the world... My phone has GPSDragonfighter wrote:If you were taken hostage by hijacking and flown somewhere in the back of a plane, could you tell your loved ones where you are? Provided your phone wasn't discovered and taken in the first place I mean.philip964 wrote:I know the families are hoping the people are alive. If we imagine for a second they are alive. Think of the logistics of detaining 250 people for two weeks. No one escapes, uses their cell phone. None of your compatriots tells anyone where they are being kept. Deserted island somewhere? If it was Pakistan, or some place like that they would have been discovered already.
Time will tell.
However, I'd wager that anywhere that had a runway lng enough to land a 777 is close enough to a tower to make a call.
No so for a dirt landing in a remote desert, or a Siberian 4-lane.
- Mon Mar 24, 2014 8:14 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Yes... Within a few feet anywhere in the world... My phone has GPSDragonfighter wrote:If you were taken hostage by hijacking and flown somewhere in the back of a plane, could you tell your loved ones where you are? Provided your phone wasn't discovered and taken in the first place I mean.philip964 wrote:I know the families are hoping the people are alive. If we imagine for a second they are alive. Think of the logistics of detaining 250 people for two weeks. No one escapes, uses their cell phone. None of your compatriots tells anyone where they are being kept. Deserted island somewhere? If it was Pakistan, or some place like that they would have been discovered already.
Time will tell.
- Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:26 pm
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
If ocean currents average ~3kts and debris is discovered 14 days after the crash, that's 3 x 24 x 14 = 1,008 Nautical miles = 1,160 statute miles.Jaguar wrote:This flight has been gone so long without any evidence of where it is that even if they recover debris the actual resting place on the bottom could be hundreds of miles away with little hope of finding the black boxes.
Needle in a hayfield.
- Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:46 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Without looking it up, IIRC, they at least had a debris field to use as a starting place. They had only a short time between the last known transponder position and the crash location. So, they knew the location of the AF crash within some reasonable surface area. In the Malaysia case, there's not a shred of debris located so far and the area of possibility is a circle that encompasses a surface area roughly 6 times the size of the USA. Yes, they are doing things to narrow that down, but, it sure seems like educated guessing, rather than any certainty.cdc101 wrote:Maybe the 200' mark pushes them into a different insurance coverage bracket. ;)RoyGBiv wrote:I've been watching the news for too long. Something about 199' 11" stuck in my head.jmra wrote:You're correct. AP had it incorrectly labeled as 119'11" instead of 199'11".
Watching that stat on the news graphics I keep thinking.... "Sooooo close, you'd think they'd have found a way to add another inch"
Serious question...does anyone know how they were able to find the Air France plane's black boxes 2 years after that one crashed off the coast of Brazil (I think it was Brazil?)? I keep hearing that the pings only last for 30 days...did they juist get lucky with the Air France plane to find them after so long? I realize they at least had an idea of where to look for those.
Still seems like a needle in a haystack for that too.
- Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:27 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
I've been watching the news for too long. Something about 199' 11" stuck in my head.jmra wrote:You're correct. AP had it incorrectly labeled as 119'11" instead of 199'11".
Watching that stat on the news graphics I keep thinking.... "Sooooo close, you'd think they'd have found a way to add another inch"
- Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:27 pm
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
wing span is 199 feet 11 inches. So it's not inconceivable that the floating debris at 75 feet is a wing. Time will tell.jmra wrote:Trying to figure out what part of the plane would still be afloat that would measure 80 feet. According to the experts about the only part of the structure that would float would be a wing. Any part of the cabin area would have sunk by now. The problem with it being a wing is the total wing span (wing tip to wing tip) is only 119 feet. 20 feet of that total is fuselage which means each wing is a max of 50 feet. Of course the only way a wing could be floating is if the engine detached from the wing.
- Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:50 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Lost shipping container?
- Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:38 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
I've been seeing this all morning... before I believe it, I'd like to know exactly how they know this.jmra wrote:So much for an emergency causing the change in flight path.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/18 ... ourse-was/
"The Malaysia Airlines flight that vanished nearly two weeks ago was already 12 minutes into its diverted course when the plane's co-pilot calmly told air traffic controllers that things were "all right," former FAA spokesman Scott Brenner said Tuesday on The Kelly File."
Strangely, all the reports on this new "fact" fail to explain how they made this determination or why it took 11 days to figure it out.
Color me skeptical...
Although, if this is true it makes it pretty clear that the disappearance was not an accident.
- Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:25 pm
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Need to be careful about not falling victim to intentionally vague words used to invoke emotional responses...jmra wrote:According to Fox News this morning, data received from the plane's systems show that the turn was preprogrammed into the navigation system and was not performed manually. It may have even been programmed into the system while it was still on the ground.
Another link http://news.iafrica.com/worldnews/908028.html
In this case "preprogrammed" very simply means that the pilot did not grab the yoke and turn the aircraft manually. Even the linked article later says that "preprogrammed" could mean.... (emphasis mine).
If your ship was failing and you needed your hands free to deal with the crisis, the best way to start heading immediately back to land would be to type a few keystrokes into the autopilot and get back to fighting the fire (perhaps literally in this case). I read somewhere earlier (possibly the article I linked above?) that the heading chosen would have put the aircraft on a course towards a 13,000 foot runway on Langkawi.Rather than manually operating the plane's controls, whoever altered Flight 370's path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer situated between the captain and the co-pilot, according to officials.
Impossible to know for sure until more is known about actual events, but there's nothing inherently sinister about "preprogrammed" in this case, except for the medias intent to cause alarm where none is yet justified.
- Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:33 am
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
I'm still placing my bets on some version of "mechanical/electrical/airframe failure/fire"
Here's another good hypothesis. Occam would be proud.
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh ... ical-fire/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Here's another good hypothesis. Occam would be proud.
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh ... ical-fire/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shaw was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.
Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.
For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.
- Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:19 pm
- Forum: Off-Topic
- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Apparently this is a difficult thing to both "schedule" and to "execute".jmra wrote:Makes a lot of sense.RoyGBiv wrote:Here's the first "hijacked" theory that has any resonance with me at all.
Facts re: SIA-68 not confirmed.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
How do you know where the other plane will be and exactly when?
How to you "catch up" to it in time to hide behind it when the timing needs to be just so and the difference between cruise speed and max speed isn't that great? (555Kts vs 590Kts).
I still believe it's likely not terrorism.
Either a cascading failure of equipment or possibly the pilot lost his mind.
- Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:40 pm
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- Topic: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Flight Vanishes
Here's the first "hijacked" theory that has any resonance with me at all.
Facts re: SIA-68 not confirmed.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Facts re: SIA-68 not confirmed.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;