I'm almost hoping Open Carry fails… here's why

[TexasCajun]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that initially we'll see a lot of 30.07 signs if OC passes. The loons that continue to make this an uphill battle won't be able to contain themselves. Those that have a CHL will go hog wild, and those that don't will oc as a way to protest the CHL requirement. It will be the loons that the 30.07 will be in response to.

[steveincowtown]

It is somewhat ironic to me another state is working towards allowing concealed carry while we are working to allow open carry.
https://www.nraila.org/articles/2015021 ... sentatives" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is actually more of a "Constitutional Carry" bill than a concealed carry bill. IIRC, it will allow New Hampshireman to carry concealed without a permit.

This bill:

I. Increases the length of time for which a license to carry a pistol or revolver is valid.

II. Allows a person to carry a loaded, concealed pistol or revolver without a license unless such person is otherwise prohibited by New Hampshire statute.

III. Requires the director of the division of state police to negotiate and enter into agreements with other jurisdictions to recognize in those jurisdictions the validity of the license to carry issued in this state.

IV. Repeals the requirement to obtain a license to carry a concealed pistol or revolver.

[TVGuy]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that initially we'll see a lot of 30.07 signs if OC passes. The loons that continue to make this an uphill battle won't be able to contain themselves. Those that have a CHL will go hog wild, and those that don't will oc as a way to protest the CHL requirement. It will be the loons that the 30.07 will be in response to.

I'm confused...You think "activists" without a CHL will OC handguns if SB 17 passes?

[TexasCajun]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that initially we'll see a lot of 30.07 signs if OC passes. The loons that continue to make this an uphill battle won't be able to contain themselves. Those that have a CHL will go hog wild, and those that don't will oc as a way to protest the CHL requirement. It will be the loons that the 30.07 will be in response to.

I'm confused...You think "activists" without a CHL will OC handguns if SB 17 passes?

I hope that they don't. But recent events tells me that if a licensed oc bill passes, they will not go quietly into the night. Heck they can't even keep quiet when we're gaining ground or when the situation starts to appear hopeful.

[TVGuy]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that initially we'll see a lot of 30.07 signs if OC passes. The loons that continue to make this an uphill battle won't be able to contain themselves. Those that have a CHL will go hog wild, and those that don't will oc as a way to protest the CHL requirement. It will be the loons that the 30.07 will be in response to.

I'm confused...You think "activists" without a CHL will OC handguns if SB 17 passes?

I hope that they don't. But recent events tells me that if a licensed oc bill passes, they will not go quietly into the night. Heck they can't even keep quiet when we're gaining ground or when the situation starts to appear hopeful.

If they unlawfully OC (assuming SB 17 passes) they would face some stiff legal penalties. Wouldn't be very smart.

[mojo84]

It is somewhat ironic to me another state is working towards allowing concealed carry while we are working to allow open carry.
https://www.nraila.org/articles/2015021 ... sentatives" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is actually more of a "Constitutional Carry" bill than a concealed carry bill. IIRC, it will allow New Hampshireman to carry concealed without a permit.

This bill:

I. Increases the length of time for which a license to carry a pistol or revolver is valid.

II. Allows a person to carry a loaded, concealed pistol or revolver without a license unless such person is otherwise prohibited by New Hampshire statute.

III. Requires the director of the division of state police to negotiate and enter into agreements with other jurisdictions to recognize in those jurisdictions the validity of the license to carry issued in this state.

IV. Repeals the requirement to obtain a license to carry a concealed pistol or revolver.

I understand that. I'm not debating or commenting on what New Hampshire is doing other than just pointing out the irony of us wanting to unconceal and them wanting to be able to conceal.

It wasn't intended to be an in depth opinion on New Hampshire law.

[PaJ]

In Louisiana, OC is legal. I have spent a lot of time in Lake Charles, Baton Rouge and north Louisiana in rural towns. When I say "a lot" of time, I practically lived in BR in 2012 and 2013. I still go back frequently for work. Since I stayed in a hotel, I was in restaurants three meals a day for most days of the week. My inlaws (from both marriages) live in rural north La. towns. Many people I know are CHL holders, and I don't know of anyone who is anti-gun or anti CHL. Guns are very much a part of the culture there. It was during that time that I got my CHL, so I was even looking for people who would OC, but I have never saw it - not once - in either a rural or city setting.

According to this report http://crimepreventionresearchcenter.or ... States.pdf, less than 5% of the population has a CHL. If this forum is an indication (unscientific of course), an even smaller group has a desire to regularly open carry (though most support the ability to). So, given that, I think the number of people who will OC will be very small.

Based on my experience and this data (both scientific and anecdotal), my opinion is I really don't think it's going to be a big deal.

[TexasCajun]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that initially we'll see a lot of 30.07 signs if OC passes. The loons that continue to make this an uphill battle won't be able to contain themselves. Those that have a CHL will go hog wild, and those that don't will oc as a way to protest the CHL requirement. It will be the loons that the 30.07 will be in response to.

I'm confused...You think "activists" without a CHL will OC handguns if SB 17 passes?

I hope that they don't. But recent events tells me that if a licensed oc bill passes, they will not go quietly into the night. Heck they can't even keep quiet when we're gaining ground or when the situation starts to appear hopeful.

If they unlawfully OC (assuming SB 17 passes) they would face some stiff legal penalties. Wouldn't be very smart.

And?

[TVGuy]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that initially we'll see a lot of 30.07 signs if OC passes. The loons that continue to make this an uphill battle won't be able to contain themselves. Those that have a CHL will go hog wild, and those that don't will oc as a way to protest the CHL requirement. It will be the loons that the 30.07 will be in response to.

I'm confused...You think "activists" without a CHL will OC handguns if SB 17 passes?

I hope that they don't. But recent events tells me that if a licensed oc bill passes, they will not go quietly into the night. Heck they can't even keep quiet when we're gaining ground or when the situation starts to appear hopeful.

If they unlawfully OC (assuming SB 17 passes) they would face some stiff legal penalties. Wouldn't be very smart.

And?

What they have been doing is completely legal with the exception of a few outlying incidents - even those are up for debate. I don't agree with their tactics, but they aren't illegal.

If they do what you say they would be straight up breaking the law. I'm not saying they are smart, but I also don't think they are felons or want that charge.

[Ruark]

I spent 10 days in Pueblo, CO, last August with my BTA90 9mm on my hip the entire time. I visited Walmart, Radio Shack, hotels, Walgreens, auto parts stores, various fast food and casual dining establishements in Pueblo. I saw no signs prohibiting guns. The single negative comment was from a northerner attending the same event that I was attending.

Just curious.... did you encounter any LEOs, and what was their reaction?

[TXBO]

I spent 10 days in Pueblo, CO, last August with my BTA90 9mm on my hip the entire time. I visited Walmart, Radio Shack, hotels, Walgreens, auto parts stores, various fast food and casual dining establishements in Pueblo. I saw no signs prohibiting guns. The single negative comment was from a northerner attending the same event that I was attending.

Just curious.... did you encounter any LEOs, and what was their reaction?

I lived in Arizona in the 90's. At that time open carry was allowed without permit and concealed carry required permit. Open carry was really a non-issue even back then. It really wasn't that common in populated areas. Everybody knew the law so it didn't really cause a reaction.

[TexasCajun]

I'll go out on a limb and predict that initially we'll see a lot of 30.07 signs if OC passes. The loons that continue to make this an uphill battle won't be able to contain themselves. Those that have a CHL will go hog wild, and those that don't will oc as a way to protest the CHL requirement. It will be the loons that the 30.07 will be in response to.

I'm confused...You think "activists" without a CHL will OC handguns if SB 17 passes?

I hope that they don't. But recent events tells me that if a licensed oc bill passes, they will not go quietly into the night. Heck they can't even keep quiet when we're gaining ground or when the situation starts to appear hopeful.

If they unlawfully OC (assuming SB 17 passes) they would face some stiff legal penalties. Wouldn't be very smart.

And?

What they have been doing is completely legal with the exception of a few outlying incidents - even those are up for debate. I don't agree with their tactics, but they aren't illegal.

If they do what you say they would be straight up breaking the law. I'm not saying they are smart, but I also don't think they are felons or want that charge.

When you're dealing with rational folks, sure, those would be valid assumptions. But that's not who we're talking about here. These folks have proven over and over that they only care about whatever it is they care about (I'm not really in a position to even guess what that would be), and they are only going to listen to their own self-congratulatory echo chamber for direction and advice. They won't be happy with a licensed oc bill, and given their history there's no telling what passage of it will stir up in them.

Given all of that, I still don't think many businesses will opt to put up 2 big ugly signs. Probably lots of 30.07, but not many more 30.06 than we already have.

[The Annoyed Man]

I don't think looking to the experience of other states is quite as instructive as some do. A lot depends on the culture and attitudes of the state you live in, and they are certainly not the same. Texas is particularly unique in that regard, so I wouldn't want to go out on a limb and predict what will happen.

Yesterday morning, I was on the phone with a CS rep for National Firearms Dealers Network because I am building a website for a local FFL who has just signed up with NFDN's service. NFDN is located in Arizona. At the conclusion of the business part of our conversation, I asked her about her personal observations of open carry in Arizona. I told her that I had (briefly) OC'd in Arizona while passing through, but although I knew it was a Constitutional Carry state, I had not personally observed anybody else OC'ing while I was there. I asked her if she saw it very often, and what her personal opinion of it was.

I figured that this woman, working for a national firearms distributorship located in Arizona, would be overtly enthusiastic about OC, but that wasn't so much the case. I would describe her attitude as "positive" toward OC, without being a cheerleader for it. When I asked her if she had seen a lot of people OC'ing, she said that out-of-staters have to remember that Arizona has only had Constitutional Carry since 2010. We tend to think of it as having been the case forever, but that isn't so. Prior to 2010, OC was legal, but CC still required a permit. The 2010 law simply got the government out of the business of requiring a permit for CC. As to the question of how common OC is, she said that she had rarely ever seen people OC'ing prior to 2010; but more remarkably, she said that for a long time after 2010, it still hadn't taken off yet. She said that is only more recently that she occasionally sees someone OC'ing in public. She said that at the NFDN offices, knows of only one coworker who OC's.

I think this will be a pretty fair picture of the future of OC in Texas......if it passes. It will take a pretty long time—on the order of years....perhaps a decade—after passage before we will begin to see Texans carrying openly in anything but rare numbers.

I made a mistake on this website a few years ago, when I averred that the percentage of CHL holders who actually carry is much higher than it actually is. I was set straight, and it turns out that the percentage is very small - something on the order of 6% if I recall correctly. That means that out of the 830,000 active CHL licenses, fewer than 50,000 of us actually carry.........and the number who carry daily is a subset of that. A surprising number of people on this site who posted in that thread admitted that they don't carry daily.....and because of the focused topical nature of this website, our members are probably not typical, and we probably carry in higher numbers than those CHL holders who are not members here.

I suspect that the experience with OC will be similar, especially if it is licensed OC. A lot of our members have stated (including me) that even if OC passes, we would probably only rarely OC ourselves. So that is a small percentage (CHLs who open carry) of a small percentage (CHLs who are members of this forum) of a small percentage (the barely 3% of people who actually have a CHL).

If OC is unlicensed, the numbers will be mostly the same, with the addition of a few OC activists who refused for philosophical reasons to obtain a CHL.....but in shear numbers, that is NOT a lot of people. Even if ALL CHLs who carry daily declared they would regularly OC, and we doubled that number to account for the addition of an equal number of OCers without licenses, we're probably still at less than 100,000 people. So either way, OC is just not going to be that common, whether it is licensed or not.

[oljames3]

Only one LEO encounter.

My point is that open carry seems to have worked out well where I have OCed: OK, CO, and NM. I don't expect that Texans will be any less successful.

I visited my brother (retired USMC Lt Col) in Colorado Springs, CO, in May of 2013. My wife and I had received our CHLs that April. I had researched the laws for NM and CO, but was hesitant to open carry. My brother's son-in-law is a deputy sheriff for El Paso County, CO. He confirmed my understanding of the CO laws. His impression is that the Sheriff's department understood the law and was supportive. I promptly untucked my shirt. During that same trip, my wife and I spent several days in Pueblo, CO, during which I open carried without incident. I returned the next year for a longer stay, during which I open carried in Oklahoma and New Mexico as well as Colorado. This is far from being statistically meaningful, but I saw no signs prohibiting carrying and only had one even remotely negative comment.

I spent 10 days in Pueblo, CO, last August with my BTA90 9mm on my hip the entire time. I visited Walmart, Radio Shack, hotels, Walgreens, auto parts stores, various fast food and casual dining establishements in Pueblo. I saw no signs prohibiting guns. The single negative comment was from a northerner attending the same event that I was attending.

Just curious.... did you encounter any LEOs, and what was their reaction?

[PaJ]

I don't think looking to the experience of other states is quite as instructive as some do. A lot depends on the culture and attitudes of the state you live in, and they are certainly not the same. Texas is particularly unique in that regard, so I wouldn't want to go out on a limb and predict what will happen.

Yesterday morning, I was on the phone with a CS rep for National Firearms Dealers Network because I am building a website for a local FFL who has just signed up with NFDN's service. NFDN is located in Arizona. At the conclusion of the business part of our conversation, I asked her about her personal observations of open carry in Arizona. I told her that I had (briefly) OC'd in Arizona while passing through, but although I knew it was a Constitutional Carry state, I had not personally observed anybody else OC'ing while I was there. I asked her if she saw it very often, and what her personal opinion of it was.

I figured that this woman, working for a national firearms distributorship located in Arizona, would be overtly enthusiastic about OC, but that wasn't so much the case. I would describe her attitude as "positive" toward OC, without being a cheerleader for it. When I asked her if she had seen a lot of people OC'ing, she said that out-of-staters have to remember that Arizona has only had Constitutional Carry since 2010. We tend to think of it as having been the case forever, but that isn't so. Prior to 2010, OC was legal, but CC still required a permit. The 2010 law simply got the government out of the business of requiring a permit for CC. As to the question of how common OC is, she said that she had rarely ever seen people OC'ing prior to 2010; but more remarkably, she said that for a long time after 2010, it still hadn't taken off yet. She said that is only more recently that she occasionally sees someone OC'ing in public. She said that at the NFDN offices, knows of only one coworker who OC's.

I think this will be a pretty fair picture of the future of OC in Texas......if it passes. It will take a pretty long time—on the order of years....perhaps a decade—after passage before we will begin to see Texans carrying openly in anything but rare numbers.

I made a mistake on this website a few years ago, when I averred that the percentage of CHL holders who actually carry is much higher than it actually is. I was set straight, and it turns out that the percentage is very small - something on the order of 6% if I recall correctly. That means that out of the 830,000 active CHL licenses, fewer than 50,000 of us actually carry.........and the number who carry daily is a subset of that. A surprising number of people on this site who posted in that thread admitted that they don't carry daily.....and because of the focused topical nature of this website, our members are probably not typical, and we probably carry in higher numbers than those CHL holders who are not members here.

I suspect that the experience with OC will be similar, especially if it is licensed OC. A lot of our members have stated (including me) that even if OC passes, we would probably only rarely OC ourselves. So that is a small percentage (CHLs who open carry) of a small percentage (CHLs who are members of this forum) of a small percentage (the barely 3% of people who actually have a CHL).

If OC is unlicensed, the numbers will be mostly the same, with the addition of a few OC activists who refused for philosophical reasons to obtain a CHL.....but in shear numbers, that is NOT a lot of people. Even if ALL CHLs who carry daily declared they would regularly OC, and we doubled that number to account for the addition of an equal number of OCers without licenses, we're probably still at less than 100,000 people. So either way, OC is just not going to be that common, whether it is licensed or not.

as similarly stated above. Therefore, using your assumptive numbers, this is less than 0.4% of the population of Texas. And I think that's probably a high number.