Soccerdad1995 wrote:It's an interesting thought experiment if nothing else. To me, there are two fundamental questions that would impact the feasibility of a secession.
1. How would the federal government react?
2. What other states / counties, etc., would join Texas? Would all of Texas secede, or just a portion?
On #1, it would be a tad bit hypocritical if the federal government tried to stop secession by force. It might be hard to reconcile this with the U.S. government's position on the right to self government by other countries (Ukraine is an example) that were once part of another country. In a perfect world, the federal government would respect the wishes of the people living in an area, who vote for secession. They would then negotiate reasonable trade agreements, and agreements for immigration, transport, etc. Texas has it's own power grid, so we may not need to negotiate much in the way of power sales, depending on the answer to #2, of course.
If the federal government is likely to respond with military force, like the last time this came up, then I personally think it isn't worth the effort.
#2 could impact our need / positioning for trade agreements with other nations, and possibly military needs as well.
Assuming friendly relations with the U.S., I think an independent Texas could potentially thrive. We would lure businesses from the U.S. with lower taxes, and an educated work force. We also have a strong enough military to protect Texas. Probably not strong enough to get overly involved in foreign wars, though. There would be turmoil during the transition, but long term it might just work OK.
Sometimes you don't have to do it, just make the other side believe you'll do it and then negotiate from there!