Accurate statistics

There is seemingly no end to the extent to which anti-gun people and groups will lie about guns and gun owners. Post links to articles by these masters of prevarication here.

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LDB415
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Accurate statistics

Postby LDB415 » Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:58 am

Apologies if this is the wrong place. Does anyone know of a good site that is also user friendly to get accurate statistics on firearm use and misuse? On one of my other forums a guy is saying in 90 days 720 children will be shot and killed. I don't believe that number but don't know where to find accurate numbers. Thanks.
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Pawpaw » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:13 am

That's a very tall order, but a good place to start is http://crimeresearch.org/
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Topbuilder
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Topbuilder » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:13 am

Looks like drivel from Brady campaign dot org stats.
Includes to age 19... Includes suicide.
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:17 am

LDB415 wrote:Apologies if this is the wrong place. Does anyone know of a good site that is also user friendly to get accurate statistics on firearm use and misuse? On one of my other forums a guy is saying in 90 days 720 children will be shot and killed. I don't believe that number but don't know where to find accurate numbers. Thanks.

Ask the guy for his authoritative source.

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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby NTexCopRetired » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:24 am

The last stats I saw indicated more children drowned accidentally in backyard pools than are accidentally shot by a handgun. If my child wanted to spend the night with a family that had a handgun in the house or a backyard swimming pool, I would choose the family with the handgun.

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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Skiprr » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:12 pm

A good read is also John Lott's new book (or newish, at least; published last August), The War on Guns: Arming Yourself Against Gun Control Lies. Reviewed last December by American Rifleman Magazine here: https://www.americanrifleman.org/articles/2016/12/13/book-review-the-war-on-guns-arming-yourself-against-gun-control-lies/.

The hardcover publisher list price is $27.99, but I picked up my copy from Amazon for $18.68...and the purchase was eligible for my AmazonSmile donation to the NRA Civil Rights Defense Fund.
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby ELB » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:15 pm

The antis like to pump up their statistics by calling any teen -- like 19 year olds -- "children", so when gang members shoot each other it "counts."

Like Charles said, make him source his statistics.
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby C-dub » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:27 pm

LDB415 wrote:On one of my other forums a guy is saying in 90 days 720 children will be shot and killed.

I hope you're misquoting this guy because this sounds like a prediction or threat.

You're probably aware that many statistics can be manipulated based on biased input data to come up with many different statistical outcomes. For instance, is this a worldwide prediction or just Chicago?
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby ShepherdTX » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:34 pm

LDB415 wrote:Apologies if this is the wrong place. Does anyone know of a good site that is also user friendly to get accurate statistics on firearm use and misuse? On one of my other forums a guy is saying in 90 days 720 children will be shot and killed. I don't believe that number but don't know where to find accurate numbers. Thanks.


Make sure you ask the guy what his definition of "Children" is. More often than not its the anti gunner bait and switch as I like to call it. They'll lead with tragic stories of toddlers shot and killed to get you thinking about that but when they provide the stats, the fine print is that "children" are defined as anyone 18 and under. Closer inspection always reveals the bulk of those numbers are teenaged gang members doing gang member things in gang member places.

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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Vol Texan » Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:35 pm

According to this source: http://www.gunfacts.info/gun-control-myths/children-and-guns/, that 'age 19 is a child' thing is not inclusive enough.

Myth: 13 children are killed each day by guns

Fact: Adults included – This “statistic” includes “children” up to age 19 or 24, depending on the source*. Since most violent crime is committed by males ages 16-24, the “13 children” number includes adult gang members dying during criminal activity. The proper definition of ‘child’ is a person between birth and puberty (typically 13-14 years old) and in 2013 only 1 child was killed on an average day nationwide, or about 0.02 children per state per day.

*source = Center for Disease Control WISQARS Fatal Injury Reports for 2013
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Jago668 » Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:23 pm

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr65/nvsr65_04.pdf

Is the final tally for 2014 from the cdc.

32,295 total deaths for 14 years old, and younger. Sadly the next step is 15-24 which kind of throws the ability to check anything under 18 for the most generous definition of child.
50 deaths due to accidental discharge of a firearm.
174 deaths due to intentional suicide by firearm.
225 deaths due to assault homicide by firearm.
10 deaths of undetermined intent by firearm.
1 death by legal intervention (I'll toss this in as that could be police shooting someone).
460 injuries by firearm.

Works out to 1.26 deaths per day by firearms.

Total firearm deaths for 15-24 is 6,143. Sub 18 year olds would account for 30% of the age bracket, so just to give some kind of number if you take 30% of the total deaths gives 1,843. Not exactly accurate but blame that on the government not breaking the age brackets down where you can see legal minors, and legal adults. Gives you 5.05 deaths per day, add that to the above and you get 6.31 deaths per day by 17 and younger. Over 90 days would give you 568 deaths per 90 days; 113 deaths per 90 days for more what most would consider children.

These are small potatoes compared to vehicle accidents, 738% higher for 14 and younger. Vehicle accidental death for 15-17 is 93% higher. Deaths due to drowning is 40% higher for the 14 and younger crowd. Suicides by other means is 46% higher for 14 and younger.
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Bitter Clinger » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:17 pm

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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby Pawpaw » Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:52 pm

A bit dated, but still illustrates the point:

​According to the CDC, there are roughly 32,000 deaths a year in the US and declining from "Gun Violence."

Let's break those numbers down:
60% are suicides. That's 19,200
3% are accidental. That's 960
4% are justified. That's 1,280
33% are homicides. That's 10,560
80% of homicides are gang related. That's 8,448

That leaves 1,712 in a society of 312 million people.

You have a 0.00010256410256410300% chance of death by gun.

If you don't hang out in the hood, are not planning to commit a crime, and if you do not plan on committing suicide, that chance drops to 0.00000548717948717949%

America DOES NOT have a gun problem.
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby jmra » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:30 am

Pawpaw wrote:A bit dated, but still illustrates the point:

​According to the CDC, there are roughly 32,000 deaths a year in the US and declining from "Gun Violence."

Let's break those numbers down:
60% are suicides. That's 19,200
3% are accidental. That's 960
4% are justified. That's 1,280
33% are homicides. That's 10,560
80% of homicides are gang related. That's 8,448

That leaves 1,712 in a society of 312 million people.

You have a 0.00010256410256410300% chance of death by gun.

If you don't hang out in the hood, are not planning to commit a crime, and if you do not plan on committing suicide, that chance drops to 0.00000548717948717949%

America DOES NOT have a gun problem.

I'm a little confused on the math and how you got down to 1,712. If 80% of homicides are gang related, that means 20% (2,112) are not. Add that to the accidental deaths of 960 (people have died at shooting ranges due to some one else's ND), and you get a total of 3,072.
Also curious about "gang related" deaths. If an innocent bystander is killed when a gang does a drive by shooting on another gang are those deaths considered "gang related"? If so, you can't eliminate all of those deaths.
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Re: Accurate statistics

Postby TreyHouston » Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:41 am

JMRA, about gang related.... these set to statistics do not apply if you live in Chicago! ;-) :roll:
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