NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month

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Paladin
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NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month

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Post by Paladin »

NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month
The numbers for the National Instant Background Checks (NICS) and approximate gun sales are in for August of 2022. The month is the third highest on record for both NICS checks and gun sales. This has been a trend in 2022.

...While the numbers have dropped a little since the record year of 2020, there is enough uncertainty in the world and in the US governmental system to provide incentives for a high level of firearms sales.
Given current trends, there will be more than 500 million firearms in the United States’ private stock by the end of 2023.
Interesting that Darth Brandon is due help set new records in US private firearms ownership.
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Re: NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month

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Post by Paladin »

Recent firearm industry retail data revealed first-time gun buyers especially, totaling more than 5.4 million in 2021 and 8.4 million in 2020, are seeking training opportunities with their new purchases.
NSSF

With these high gun sales I wonder how many first time gun buyers there will be in 2022?
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Tex1961
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Re: NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month

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Post by Tex1961 »

I can tell you that my classes for the past few months have all been full.
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Re: NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month

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Post by Rafe »

Last month was the 3rd highest August behind only 2020 and 2021, in that order. The same was true for July: was the also the 3rd highest July, behind only 2020 and 2021. If you guessed that June was the 3rd highest June, you get a prize! :mrgreen: Well, at least the satisfaction of guessing correctly.

May 2020 came in 4th...but only barely. It saw 2,340,802 checks, edged out for 3rd by 2019 with 2,349,309. April was back on form: 3rd highest behind 2021 and 2020, in that order. March was also 3rd highest, again after 2021 and 2020. February was beat out by 2021, 2020, and 2016, in that order. January was in 3rd after 2021 and 2020.

After the first 8 months of 2022, there have been 20,790,489 NICS background checks run. That exceeds every entire year of the program from 1998 through 2012. As of August 31, 2022--dating from November 1998--the NICS system has performed 432,366,543 background checks.

I maintain the running data and an Excel chart just for the sake of, well, maintaining it (attached). We're on a pace this year to top every previous year except 2020 and 2021.

I know there is, and we're reminded often, no direct correlation between NICS background checks and new gun sales. But there is a correlation.
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NICS-Firearm-Background-Checks-by-Year-and-by-Month_31Aug2022.png
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Re: NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month

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Post by txpilot »

Although I'm glad to see these types of numbers, I wonder if some of it isn't really gun saless, but instead background checks on ammunition purchases which are now required by a few states.

It would be interesting to separate gun sales from ammo sales in the stats.
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Re: NICS & Gun Sales in August 2022, Third Highest Month

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Post by Rafe »

txpilot wrote: Wed Sep 14, 2022 7:53 am Although I'm glad to see these types of numbers, I wonder if some of it isn't really gun sales, but instead background checks on ammunition purchases which are now required by a few states.

It would be interesting to separate gun sales from ammo sales in the stats.
I wish the data were separated, but I doubt that will ever happen. That's why there's always the caveat that the numbers aren't a direct correlation to gun sales, and why the NSSF uses other methods, like BATF reported manufacturer data, to estimate total new firearm purchases.

I've never had to do a background check for ammo purchases (thank goodness), and maybe this is a question for our FFLs. The last form 4473 I filled out was specifically titled "Firearms Transaction Record" and Section A was a list of firearms and serial numbers, and Section C, which the FFL fills out, starts out with the categories of firearms purchased.

Do "checked" ammo purchases use a 4473, or is there a different form? I can't find anything about ammunition at fbi.gov/services/cjis/nics. Some Googling leads me to believe that it isn't done through a 4473 and the NICS system. A description at CalWaterfowl.org describes California's options like this:
BACKGROUND CHECK OPTIONS

Standard Ammunition Eligibility Check – $1 – estimated to take 2-3 minutes. This is only for people who are in the California Department of Justice’s Automated Firearm System (AFS). If you have purchased a handgun since Jan. 1, 1990, or a long gun since Jan. 1, 2014, in California, you are in the system, but the name and address on your ID must match the address in the system, which depends on where you lived when you bought your most recent gun and whether your address or name has changed since then (more information below). You can also get in the system by registering a gun, which costs $19. There is no option for non-gun owners to get into the system, so if you are a new hunter who is still borrowing a firearm, you cannot use this option.

Note: Though this system uses records of past gun purchases, it does so just to show you cleared a background check. There is no requirement for the ammunition you purchase to match the gauge or caliber of firearm(s) listed in your AFS records.

COE Verification Process – $1 – estimated to take 2-3 minutes: People who have a valid Certificate of Eligibility – usually people who work for ammunition vendors and/or handle ammunition in the course of their duties – may use this option. COE holders only need their COE number; they do not have to carry the actual certificate.

Basic Ammunition Eligibility Check – $19 – can take several days. This is for people who are not in the Automated Firearm System. Unfortunately, using this option will not get you entered into the AFS, so until you purchase or register a gun to get in the AFS, you have to pay the $19 every time you buy ammunition.

Note: If you purchase ammunition while purchasing a firearm, you do not need to get a separate background check for the ammo – the check for the gun will suffice. But you won’t be able to take home your ammo until you take home your gun.
The California Attorney General's website clarifies that "Basic Ammunition Eligibility Check" this way:
Please note: this eligibility check requires a manual review of records by a Department analyst. As such, the Department may take longer to respond with a determination as to eligibility. Response times may take several days.
So it doesn't look to me as if, in California at least, background checks for ammunition purchases go through NICS; it looks like it's a purely state operation. And it makes me very glad to live in Texas.

That said, we know the NICS numbers do include all FFL transfers, not just purchases. And I believe that even includes transactions where people have pawned a gun, and then go back to get the gun out of the pawnshop (never done it, so don't hold me to that statement). And in some states going through an FFL is the only way to sell or give a gun to someone else. So even if without ammo data, I believe the NICS numbers will always be skewed on the high side.

But maybe not that skewed: with Texas as one example, if I have a LTC my new firearm purchase has to be logged on a form 4473, but it doesn't go through the NICS; and, of course, in this state I'm free to sell a firearm to another individual without involvement of an FFL or an NICS check. So those LTC firearm purchase transactions will, I think, offset to a small extent the mandatory FFL transfer numbers in some states.

Speaking of which, something that may not be completely clear about the NICS is that it isn't used the same way throughout the country. From https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/nics: "NICS provides full service to the FFLs in 31 states, five U.S. territories, and the District of Columbia. The NICS provides partial service to six states. The remaining 13 states perform their own checks through the NICS."
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