Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

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ScooterSissy
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby ScooterSissy » Wed Mar 18, 2015 8:22 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:... I wonder if I should start the long process (by law it's 10 days, but it actually takes months) of getting the data to compare Texas peace officers to the general population and to CHLs? It might prove handy when some folks try to water down or repeal the Texas version of the so-called "Castle Doctrine." :headscratch

Chas.

I would really like to know that statistic. Not that there's much victory in "winning an argument on the internet"; but I was thinking about that very statistic today when a fellow Texan posted that CHL holders shouldn't be allowed to open carry and that he trusted the police to protect him.


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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Rrash » Thu Mar 19, 2015 2:18 am

Charles L. Cotton wrote:
Rrash wrote:I notice it spiked considerably in 2013. Just curious, are many of these convictions tied to one offender? There seems to be a large number of sexual assault with a child and child indecency convictions, for example. All in all, it's an astoundingly small number, but I could see Bloomberg saying that crime stats among CHL's almost doubled over the last 2 years, for example.


With the miniscule number of CHL convictions, even small increases represent a large change in terms of percentage. Total CHL crimes went up by only 38, while the total number of CHLs increased by 123,198! As you noted, one person could account for more than one crime, but that information is not available.

Chas.


I thought about the increase in CHL's as well. In theory, as this number grows, we should expect more convictions. With the number of transplants moving to Texas, I would think that the increase in overall population should keep the percentages of non-CHL to CHL intact, meaning that we should continue to see somewhere around .2% conviction rates on average, which is where it is when you look at the last few years combined. No worries, I was just trying to make sense of the spike.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:00 am

The data for 2013 has been updated in the original post. I had uploaded the spreadsheet for 2013, but I got busy and didn't have time to upload the "Per 100,000" comparisons for 2002 - 2013 and for 2013 as a stand-alone document. I also forgot to update the text in the post. Everything is now up to date.

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby mr surveyor » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:27 am

Thank you, Sir, for the update. Very timely for my immediate "needs". More good, solid information needed for an upcoming meeting.


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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:40 pm

DPS has published the crime stats for 2014. The numbers just keep getting better, much better! For 2014, Texas Licensees are 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population (GP). in 2013, the general population had an overall reduction in crime of 19.6% which reduced the GP to CHLs ratio to 12.12 times less likely. The reduction in the ratio was the result of better crime figures for the GP, not poor performance by CHLs.

In 2014, the crime by the GP went down another 7.7%, yet the GP to CHL ratio still skyrocketed by over 83% to the current 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime. This is amazing folks. While the increasing number of licensees is certainly a factor in the percentage, the number of total crimes by Licensees went down from 158 to 111. That’s a total reduction of 47 (29.7%) at a time when the Licensee population went up 217,909 (30.8%).

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for person age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! Of course, Bloomberg liars will ignore the truth but that's nothing new.
Chas.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Jusme » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:52 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:DPS has published the crime stats for 2014. The numbers just keep getting better, much better! For 2014, Texas Licensees are 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population (GP). in 2013, the general population had an overall reduction in crime of 19.6% which reduced the GP to CHLs ratio to 12.12 times less likely. The reduction in the ratio was the result of better crime figures for the GP, not poor performance by CHLs.

In 2014, the crime by the GP went down another 7.7%, yet the GP to CHL ratio still skyrocketed by over 83% to the current 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime. This is amazing folks. While the increasing number of licensees is certainly a factor in the percentage, the number of total crimes by Licensees went down from 158 to 111. That’s a total reduction of 47 (29.7%) at a time when the Licensee population went up 217,909 (30.8%).

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for person age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! Of course, Bloomberg liars will ignore the truth but that's nothing new.
Chas.


That's great news Charles, I didn't realize the stats didn't include the 17-20 year old age bracket. That means that we as a whole are even more law abiding than our non-licensed counterparts.

A question I was asked, but couldn't answer, was whether these included out of state licensees, I didn't think so, since the State of Texas probably has no way to track them, but I was curious.

Thanks for the update, I'll take a look at the stats when I get a few minutes.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby LTCTLB » Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:00 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:DPS has published the crime stats for 2014. The numbers just keep getting better, much better! For 2014, Texas Licensees are 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime than is the general population (GP). in 2013, the general population had an overall reduction in crime of 19.6% which reduced the GP to CHLs ratio to 12.12 times less likely. The reduction in the ratio was the result of better crime figures for the GP, not poor performance by CHLs.

In 2014, the crime by the GP went down another 7.7%, yet the GP to CHL ratio still skyrocketed by over 83% to the current 22.2 times less likely to commit a crime. This is amazing folks. While the increasing number of licensees is certainly a factor in the percentage, the number of total crimes by Licensees went down from 158 to 111. That’s a total reduction of 47 (29.7%) at a time when the Licensee population went up 217,909 (30.8%).

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for person age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! Of course, Bloomberg liars will ignore the truth but that's nothing new.
Chas.


This is great news.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:53 pm

DPS has published the crime stats for 2015 and the LTC track record gets better every year. There was a population correction for 2014 that changed the ratio. For 2014, LTCs were 20 times (actually 19.7) less likely to commit a crime than the general public. For 2015, LTCs are 21 times less likely to commit a crime.

The LTC population increased by 111,462 Licensees, but the total number of crimes by an LTC actually went down slightly. This is nothing less than astounding folks!

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for persons age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! I want the folks in Austin to explain to me why we need to retain any off-limits areas for LTCs.
Chas
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Jusme » Thu Sep 15, 2016 4:09 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:DPS has published the crime stats for 2015 and the LTC track record gets better every year. There was a population correction for 2014 that changed the ratio. For 2014, LTCs were 20 times (actually 19.7) less likely to commit a crime than the general public. For 2015, LTCs are 21 times less likely to commit a crime.

The LTC population increased by 111,462 Licensees, but the total number of crimes by an LTC actually went down slightly. This is nothing less than astounding folks!

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for persons age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! I want the folks in Austin to explain to me why we need to retain any off-limits areas for LTCs.
Chas




Thanks Charles,

And three cheers for our LTC family. :cheers2: :hurry: :hurry:
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby RoyGBiv » Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:38 am

Made a data presentation suggestion here: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=86037&sid=069e39c6e201ac5a06d3c9ae65871205#p1107010

Probably better fit for this thread. Apologies for the dup.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby bblhd672 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:09 am

Charles L. Cotton wrote:DPS has published the crime stats for 2015 and the LTC track record gets better every year. There was a population correction for 2014 that changed the ratio. For 2014, LTCs were 20 times (actually 19.7) less likely to commit a crime than the general public. For 2015, LTCs are 21 times less likely to commit a crime.

The LTC population increased by 111,462 Licensees, but the total number of crimes by an LTC actually went down slightly. This is nothing less than astounding folks!

Remember, the crime figures for the general population published by the DPS are for persons age 21 years and over. That's the only way to make a comparison with Licensees. Therefore, the crime figures posted will be different from the overall crime stats for the State, because those will include people who are between 17 and 20 years of age. In other words, the DPS data and my analysis are conservative because the total number of crimes for the general population would be higher if they included crimes committed by people in the 17 - 20 year old bracket.

Keep up the good work LTCs! I want the folks in Austin to explain to me why we need to retain any off-limits areas for LTCs.
Chas

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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:57 am

RoyGBiv wrote:Made a data presentation suggestion here: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=86037&sid=069e39c6e201ac5a06d3c9ae65871205#p1107010

Probably better fit for this thread. Apologies for the dup.


I have that data in the full spreadsheet with all of the details making up the summary I post. I don't post the entire analysis because 1) it's far too detailed for most folks; and 2) I don't want people to get lost in the weeds/details. The legislature uses what I post and I want them and their audience to be focused.

Thanks,
Chas.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby RoyGBiv » Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:46 am

Charles L. Cotton wrote:
RoyGBiv wrote:Made a data presentation suggestion here: http://www.texaschlforum.com/viewtopic. ... 5#p1107010

Probably better fit for this thread. Apologies for the dup.


I have that data in the full spreadsheet with all of the details making up the summary I post. I don't post the entire analysis because 1) it's far too detailed for most folks; and 2) I don't want people to get lost in the weeds/details. The legislature uses what I post and I want them and their audience to be focused.

Thanks,
Chas.

Copy that Red Leader. :mrgreen:

Thanks for all you do for the cause. :thumbs2:
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby ELB » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:17 pm

There is an error in the 2004 numbers in the report CHL crime comparison 2002-2015.

The Active License Holders for that year should be 239,940, per the DPS report at https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/r ... tr2004.pdf. The CHL crime comparisons 2002-2015 has 239,863 for 2004, the same as the preceding year, which is what tipped me off. It doesn't make a huge diff (barely makes a small diff) in the calculations or conclusions, but it is not right.
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby ELB » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:14 am

The reason I noticed the error above is I was transferring some of the data from Charles' pdf file to an excel workbook so I could experiment with some graphical representations.

The thing that makes graphical representations so hard is that LTC'ers are so law-abiding and convictions so rare that when you compare them to any other number variables, from active LTCs to the population of Texas, the tiny little conviction rate is overwhelmed and vanishes to a puny little pixel of color at the bottom of the graph.

This is the only decent (graphically speaking) result I was able to come up with so far:

Image

It would be interesting, in support of the bill to remove remaining prohibitions on LTC carry, to present the hearing committee with a chart that covers one wall entirely, and maybe part of the ceiling, and then point to a little bitty splash of color down by the baseboard and say,
"See that? Way down there by the baseboard? No, not that one, that big dot is a cockroach, look at the smaller dot. That's what the BradyMomsBloomersAgainstHonestCitizens says will cause untold carnage and bloodshed in the state of Texas if you don't disarm the other million or so LTCers."
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