Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

CHL discussions that do not fit into more specific topics

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mojo84
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby mojo84 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:21 am

ELB wrote:The reason I noticed the error above is I was transferring some of the data from Charles' pdf file to an excel workbook so I could experiment with some graphical representations.

The thing that makes graphical representations so hard is that LTC'ers are so law-abiding and convictions so rare that when you compare them to any other number variables, from active LTCs to the population of Texas, the tiny little conviction rate is overwhelmed and vanishes to a puny little pixel of color at the bottom of the graph.

This is the only decent (graphically speaking) result I was able to come up with so far:

Image

It would be interesting, in support of the bill to remove remaining prohibitions on LTC carry, to present the hearing committee with a chart that covers one wall entirely, and maybe part of the ceiling, and then point to a little bitty splash of color down by the baseboard and say,
"See that? Way down there by the baseboard? No, not that one, that big dot is a cockroach, look at the smaller dot. That's what the BradyMomsBloomersAgainstHonestCitizens says will cause untold carnage and bloodshed in the state of Texas if you don't disarm the other million or so LTCers."



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bblhd672
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby bblhd672 » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:28 am

ELB wrote:The reason I noticed the error above is I was transferring some of the data from Charles' pdf file to an excel workbook so I could experiment with some graphical representations.

The thing that makes graphical representations so hard is that LTC'ers are so law-abiding and convictions so rare that when you compare them to any other number variables, from active LTCs to the population of Texas, the tiny little conviction rate is overwhelmed and vanishes to a puny little pixel of color at the bottom of the graph.

This is the only decent (graphically speaking) result I was able to come up with so far:

Image

It would be interesting, in support of the bill to remove remaining prohibitions on LTC carry, to present the hearing committee with a chart that covers one wall entirely, and maybe part of the ceiling, and then point to a little bitty splash of color down by the baseboard and say,
"See that? Way down there by the baseboard? No, not that one, that big dot is a cockroach, look at the smaller dot. That's what the BradyMomsBloomersAgainstHonestCitizens says will cause untold carnage and bloodshed in the state of Texas if you don't disarm the other million or so LTCers."


:iagree:
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“Take away the undeserved from the undeserving and you get a tantrum. Steal the earned from those who earned it and you get righteous rage. One’s a firecracker, the other a volcano.” - Robert Gore

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WildBill
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby WildBill » Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:36 am

ELB wrote:The reason I noticed the error above is I was transferring some of the data from Charles' pdf file to an excel workbook so I could experiment with some graphical representations.

The thing that makes graphical representations so hard is that LTC'ers are so law-abiding and convictions so rare that when you compare them to any other number variables, from active LTCs to the population of Texas, the tiny little conviction rate is overwhelmed and vanishes to a puny little pixel of color at the bottom of the graph.

This is the only decent (graphically speaking) result I was able to come up with so far:

Image

It would be interesting, in support of the bill to remove remaining prohibitions on LTC carry, to present the hearing committee with a chart that covers one wall entirely, and maybe part of the ceiling, and then point to a little bitty splash of color down by the baseboard and say,
"See that? Way down there by the baseboard? No, not that one, that big dot is a cockroach, look at the smaller dot. That's what the BradyMomsBloomersAgainstHonestCitizens says will cause untold carnage and bloodshed in the state of Texas if you don't disarm the other million or so LTCers."

This gets the point across. :thumbs2:
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Charles L. Cotton
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Charles L. Cotton » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:49 am

ELB wrote:There is an error in the 2004 numbers in the report CHL crime comparison 2002-2015.

The Active License Holders for that year should be 239,940, per the DPS report at https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/r ... tr2004.pdf. The CHL crime comparisons 2002-2015 has 239,863 for 2004, the same as the preceding year, which is what tipped me off. It doesn't make a huge diff (barely makes a small diff) in the calculations or conclusions, but it is not right.

Thanks, I fixed the error. As you noted, it didn't change the ratios because it was off by only 77 people. I find it hard to believe that the CHL population went up by only 77 people in a year! My how times have changed.

Chas.
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Has your Texas Rep. co-sponsored HB560 yet?


K.Mooneyham
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby K.Mooneyham » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:57 am

I only have one question: have we hit the one million mark for current (active) LTCs?

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Flightmare
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby Flightmare » Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:02 am

K.Mooneyham wrote:I only have one question: have we hit the one million mark for current (active) LTCs?


http://texaschlforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=84154
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bblhd672
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Re: Crime Statistics: CHL v. General Population

Postby bblhd672 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:14 am

2015 Crime Stats have been published by DPS:
https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/RSD/CHL/Reports/ConvictionRatesReport2015.pdf

Charles Cotton's analysis of the 2015 Crime Stats:
https://www.texasfirearmscoalition.com/images/podcasts/CHL_crime_comparison_-_2015.pdf

Thanks to all of my fellow LTC/CHL holders for obeying and upholding the law.
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“Take away the undeserved from the undeserving and you get a tantrum. Steal the earned from those who earned it and you get righteous rage. One’s a firecracker, the other a volcano.” - Robert Gore


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