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flintknapper wrote:True, but that does not speak to the odds of a particular hurricane hitting Texas, let alone Houston.

Yep; never said it did. But our own, actual history with TexasCHLForum day in September is only a 3-of-4 proposition.

The odds of a particular hurricane hitting anywhere are going to be driven by the climatological conditions at play during that particular storm. But we ain't sittin' pretty when you dig deeper into the overall, annualized probabilities from the past 98 years of data. About the only areas of the country that tie us in the overall probability of exceeding a Cat 1 storm in any given year in long-range projections (Journal of Applied Meteorology; "A Dynamic Probability Model of Hurricane Winds in Coastal Counties of the United States") is the southern tip of Florida and the eastern edge of North Carolina:



And given the overwhelming propensity for September storms compared to other months, I'm willin' to bet that the Harris-Galveston-Brazoria region will see a September tropical weather event again within the next four years.

Liberty is right: a hurricane just isn't very likely on a given weekend. Thank goodness for that!

But your best odds of seeing a hurricane or tropical storm are during the month of September. In that respect, Hurricane Ike hit at almost the exact peak of probability:



I knew about the tropical storm odds from research I did while anxiously watching Ike. But I learned some stuff this morning from Weather.com:

Monthly Average High and Low Temperatures for Greater Houston:



Makes us look more mild than I would have guessed. And I would have pegged August as the hottest month, not July. Go figure.

Monthly Average Percipitation for Greater Houston:



I wonder how much Tropical Storm Allison skewed the June averages?

Monthly Average Wind Speed for Greater Houston:



Kite flying is definitely a March-April thing.

Now, if were to move the event to San Diego, I'd bet I could do a pretty fair job of picking out a weekend with a great chance of mild temps, low humidity, and no rain.

I chose April. I think we learned that moving it out of hurricane season ain't such a bad idea, as MoJo mentioned. And having it in late April would give us a "tax relief" day to have fun and trigger-time with friends.