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The 20% chance is probably the best estimate. There'll be a "sag" of cool stuff into the upper midwest, and the air in the northwest is confused right now. Good chance of stuff moving through here Thursday or Friday. The main threat Saturday may be from the south, with showers at the worst in that case. YMMV....

About four to five days out, I will be watching for fronts/cells out of the Gulf of Alaska, coming across Oregon. If they are tight, then weather *may* be on the way and will bear watching.

I also watch for low cells drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico; which will cause some scattered stuff.

So, give it a few days yet.
I always keep a jacket packed....