What 74%?

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TexasGal
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What 74%?

#1

Post by TexasGal » Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:23 am

So I have seen several stories where the anti-s are saying polls are showing 74% of the NRA members want universal background checks. What? No one called our house nor any of the members I know. Everyone I know is 100% against universal background checks. Where did this bogus "poll" come from?
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Re: What 74%?

#2

Post by Beiruty » Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:32 am

In my humble opinion, I would not mind seeing all guns sales in gun shows only have to cleared with free Background check. You would be selling to a stranger, you just met him for 30 seconds while he was browsing your collection. What if he was an illegal immigrant?!!! or gang banger, or pusher of drugs or straw purchaser, etc....
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Re: What 74%?

#3

Post by SewTexas » Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:41 am

no gang banger or drug pusher is going to go to a gun show to buy a gun, come on....they buy an illegal gun off the street
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Re: What 74%?

#4

Post by Wes » Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:45 am

It was a poll of 945 people conducted in part by mayors agains illegal guns back in may

http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org ... 6-12.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: What 74%?

#5

Post by TexasGal » Tue Feb 05, 2013 3:23 am

It sounds so "common sense" to have mandatory background checks of all transfers at gun shows. I do think if a guy has a table rented then whatever guns he is selling should go through an FFL. BUT for the person to person personal transfer by individuals walking around, it is still essentially completely ineffectual to have this law. The criminals that we are worried about that are imagined to be there looking for other individuals to buy from will just avoid it. Any buyer and seller who wanted to avoid the check would simply agree to meet up elsewhere. How would the law prevent that from happening? That only leaves the good guys obeying the law, effectively creating a paper trail of the guns they purchase.

This whole thing is focused on banning the guns of the law abiding Americans or, failing that, creating a database of them for future grabs. This is one reason the idea of making it mandatory to have a background check for ammo purchases is gaining ground too. It is OUR guns they want to know the whereabouts and numbers of. Anyone with a shred of intelligence knows the criminals will not be stepping up. If we give them this, they will use it to come back for more. Jackals are not satisfied with one meal.
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Re: What 74%?

#6

Post by RPB » Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:16 am

But, what is the standard deviation/margin of error?
99% of statistics are just made up out of thin air, including this one.
Wes wrote:It was a poll of 945 people conducted in part by mayors agains illegal guns back in may

http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org ... 6-12.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
If MAIG had millions for a Superbowl ad, I"m sure they had enough $ to buy 1,000 cheap memberships for select people donating to MAIG org, and then poll those people. When you fish in a pond you stocked with catfish, but no trout, I'd expect to catch very few trout, if any. If you poll people exiting a Democrat National Convention, you'll get different results than polling people exciting a Southern Baptist Church. The wording of questions can also influence polls. "Do you think everyone should have guns in schools?" can be interpreted many different ways.

"Does the Second amendment give Americans the right to keep and bear arms?" No, it doesn't, it recognizes right we already have and is a contract by/promise by Govt to honor it. (If it GAVE the right, then the right could be rescinded by repealing that Amendment so you no longer have a right to own...) If you answer yes, they'll move to repeal the 2A, If you answer no, they'll say 99% agreed that the 2A does not give them the right to own ____ guns, so we are banning those ___ guns

Most of those dishonest type polls are push polls, DESIGNED to push an agenda.

When I hear a stat I wonder what was the question asked, and where.

One required College Textbook I recall was:
How to Lie with Statistics [Paperback]
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Last edited by RPB on Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:36 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: What 74%?

#7

Post by jmra » Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:31 am

Given the fact that the NRA does not publish their membership list, how did they know who to contact to begin with?

The poll is out right fraud.

Edit to add;
Found this at the bottom of the article -
The Luntz poll of 945 gun owners nationwide was conducted in May 2012 and was divided evenly by gun owners who were current or lapsed members of the NRA and non-NRA gun owners. The poll has a margin of error of + 3 percent.

1. How do you evenly split 945?
2. "Current or lapsed members of the NRA". So they could have polled someone who had a one year membership 15 years ago.
3. It's possible not a single person polled was a current member of the NRA.
4. The actual questions asked are not listed.
5. It doesn't say what area of the county was polled. Was it Chicago?

Many say "they didn't call my house". They may well have called my house, but if they did they didn't get any answers because as soon as a caller tells me they are conducting a poll the next sound they hear is ...
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Re: What 74%?

#8

Post by RPB » Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:35 am

jmra wrote:Given the fact that the NRA does not publish their membership list, how did they know who to contact to begin with?

The poll is out right fraud.
:iagree:
They'd know if they themselves purchased the memberships :)

3% Margin of error...

The margin of error is REALLY LOW when fishing for a catfish in a pond you stocked with only catfish, I'd not expect an error of catching a Bass.. I'd expect even less than a 3% margin of error, though it's possible that Bass were brought in by other means.
Last edited by RPB on Tue Feb 05, 2013 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What 74%?

#9

Post by K.Mooneyham » Tue Feb 05, 2013 9:38 am

@RPB and jmra: Excellent analysis. I am very sure that both of you have nailed this thing. I have a very difficult time trusting any polls anymore. The only ones I take any interest in are Gallup and Rasmussen, and then I only take them as general indicators, not as number specific.


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Re: What 74%?

#10

Post by srothstein » Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:55 pm

I noticed that on the Luntz Global web site, there is no way to research the polls he conducted. Most reputable pollsters will publish the poll questions and their detailed answers. Academic polls even publish their methodology and put the database of answers in a collection that almost anyone can use.

For example, Gallup polls published this on their web site about guns: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1645/Guns.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Note that they at least give you the exact wording of the question, with the answers. There is a lot more to consider, such as how the poll was conducted and what order the questions are asked in, but this is a lot more helpful than someone else's report of Luntz's poll. It makes me very doubtful of anything from Luntz, especially when it is tied to MAIG. Since luntz doe polling for clients only, I would bet the poll was a push poll, as stated by others.
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