Did we get shut out this year

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The Annoyed Man
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#31

Post by The Annoyed Man » Sun May 14, 2017 6:27 am

1911 10MM wrote:
The Annoyed Man wrote:
parabelum wrote:I would not be shocked if in 2-4 years Texas becomes purple State, and within next 10 years, a leaning Blue State.

Look at shift in demogragichs and inflow of Libs from Commie States.

That is precisely why we needed more offensive and aggressive pro-Liberty results in this session.
I keep repeating this over and over again, but people who think that Texas is a conservative state are burying their heads in the sand. According to the last numbers I saw, there is only a 4% difference between the numbers of registered democrats and registered republicans in this state. That is not a huge difference. Add in the fact that a lot of the republicans are, what can euphemistically be called, "moderate", and you have a state GOP that is not all that interested in expanding the RKBA. Yes, there are some stalwarts, but the fact is that Joe Strauss gets re-elected as Speaker each session because there isn't enough of a conservative GOP base to get a republican speaker elected without democrat help. It's not that the state GOP is "anti-gun" so much as it is that, for a lot of them, it's nowhere near their primary issue.

Those are the facts, and I don't see it getting any better, any time soon. THAT is why (A) political capital and (B) political realities are so important to the process; and the fact is that a certain segment of pro-gun advocacy people ends up shooting us in the foot time after time, because they refuse (very childishly in my opinion) to accept the battlefield as it IS, and not as they WANT it to be. Failure to properly recognize the actual battlefield conditions as they ARE instead of how they WISH it were, is the greatest sin of generals, as well as politicians, advocates, and voters alike.
I am not sure where you are getting your numbers but there is no registration of individuals to political parties in Texas. Voter registration cards do not indicate republican or democrat on them. Since you can vote in either the Rep or Dem primary but only once they wil stamp the voter registration and record the primary so you can't vote in both. There is no registration.
I did a google search about a year ago, and came up with the numbers that way. As I recall, it wasn't a registration list, it was a record of how Texans had actually voted. I've been politically active since 1970, and it was enough to convince me that things are not what they seem here, and Texans run the very real risk of getting complacent about the state's conservatism.
Give me Liberty, or I'll get up and get it myself.—Hookalakah Meshobbab
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#32

Post by canvasbck » Mon May 15, 2017 9:03 am

The Annoyed Man wrote:
1911 10MM wrote:
The Annoyed Man wrote:
parabelum wrote:I would not be shocked if in 2-4 years Texas becomes purple State, and within next 10 years, a leaning Blue State.

Look at shift in demogragichs and inflow of Libs from Commie States.

That is precisely why we needed more offensive and aggressive pro-Liberty results in this session.
I keep repeating this over and over again, but people who think that Texas is a conservative state are burying their heads in the sand. According to the last numbers I saw, there is only a 4% difference between the numbers of registered democrats and registered republicans in this state. That is not a huge difference. Add in the fact that a lot of the republicans are, what can euphemistically be called, "moderate", and you have a state GOP that is not all that interested in expanding the RKBA. Yes, there are some stalwarts, but the fact is that Joe Strauss gets re-elected as Speaker each session because there isn't enough of a conservative GOP base to get a republican speaker elected without democrat help. It's not that the state GOP is "anti-gun" so much as it is that, for a lot of them, it's nowhere near their primary issue.

Those are the facts, and I don't see it getting any better, any time soon. THAT is why (A) political capital and (B) political realities are so important to the process; and the fact is that a certain segment of pro-gun advocacy people ends up shooting us in the foot time after time, because they refuse (very childishly in my opinion) to accept the battlefield as it IS, and not as they WANT it to be. Failure to properly recognize the actual battlefield conditions as they ARE instead of how they WISH it were, is the greatest sin of generals, as well as politicians, advocates, and voters alike.
I am not sure where you are getting your numbers but there is no registration of individuals to political parties in Texas. Voter registration cards do not indicate republican or democrat on them. Since you can vote in either the Rep or Dem primary but only once they wil stamp the voter registration and record the primary so you can't vote in both. There is no registration.
I did a google search about a year ago, and came up with the numbers that way. As I recall, it wasn't a registration list, it was a record of how Texans had actually voted. I've been politically active since 1970, and it was enough to convince me that things are not what they seem here, and Texans run the very real risk of getting complacent about the state's conservatism.
If the numbers came from Primary voters, then it definitely isn't accurate. I'm among those who voted in the Democratic primary 8 years ago to lengthen the fight between HRC and BHO. This was referred to as "project chaos". A study looking at primary voters would say that I'm a Dem even though I haven't voted for one in a general election in decades.
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#33

Post by The Annoyed Man » Mon May 15, 2017 11:09 am

canvasbck wrote:
The Annoyed Man wrote:
1911 10MM wrote:
The Annoyed Man wrote:
parabelum wrote:I would not be shocked if in 2-4 years Texas becomes purple State, and within next 10 years, a leaning Blue State.

Look at shift in demogragichs and inflow of Libs from Commie States.

That is precisely why we needed more offensive and aggressive pro-Liberty results in this session.
I keep repeating this over and over again, but people who think that Texas is a conservative state are burying their heads in the sand. According to the last numbers I saw, there is only a 4% difference between the numbers of registered democrats and registered republicans in this state. That is not a huge difference. Add in the fact that a lot of the republicans are, what can euphemistically be called, "moderate", and you have a state GOP that is not all that interested in expanding the RKBA. Yes, there are some stalwarts, but the fact is that Joe Strauss gets re-elected as Speaker each session because there isn't enough of a conservative GOP base to get a republican speaker elected without democrat help. It's not that the state GOP is "anti-gun" so much as it is that, for a lot of them, it's nowhere near their primary issue.

Those are the facts, and I don't see it getting any better, any time soon. THAT is why (A) political capital and (B) political realities are so important to the process; and the fact is that a certain segment of pro-gun advocacy people ends up shooting us in the foot time after time, because they refuse (very childishly in my opinion) to accept the battlefield as it IS, and not as they WANT it to be. Failure to properly recognize the actual battlefield conditions as they ARE instead of how they WISH it were, is the greatest sin of generals, as well as politicians, advocates, and voters alike.
I am not sure where you are getting your numbers but there is no registration of individuals to political parties in Texas. Voter registration cards do not indicate republican or democrat on them. Since you can vote in either the Rep or Dem primary but only once they wil stamp the voter registration and record the primary so you can't vote in both. There is no registration.
I did a google search about a year ago, and came up with the numbers that way. As I recall, it wasn't a registration list, it was a record of how Texans had actually voted. I've been politically active since 1970, and it was enough to convince me that things are not what they seem here, and Texans run the very real risk of getting complacent about the state's conservatism.
If the numbers came from Primary voters, then it definitely isn't accurate. I'm among those who voted in the Democratic primary 8 years ago to lengthen the fight between HRC and BHO. This was referred to as "project chaos". A study looking at primary voters would say that I'm a Dem even though I haven't voted for one in a general election in decades.
I'm off in my recollection. It's not a 4% difference, its a 5.5% difference.......but STILL not anywhere near what a lot of people imagine - February 3rd, 2016: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188969/red-s ... cking.aspx
Scroll down to Texas......
Image

Now, I'll grant that this image depicts one day out of a daily tracking poll, but Gallup is a fairly reputable source, and it is significant to me that in 2015 - halfway through the 2nd term of a controversial hard leftist presidency, whose policies negatively impacted a large number of people - 5.5% leaning republican was the best Texans could do? It's no wonder that democrats thought the state could be flipped. After all, why not? They had successfully flipped other states with conservative reputations in the past, and it wasn't THAT long ago that Texas was a democrat state.

Please understand, I don't LIKE any of this. I came to Texas to seek refuge from California. I don't want Texas to become California. But remember that California elected Ronald Reagan as governor - TWICE - and never used to be as monolithically leftist as it is now. So I don't find a 5.5% difference very comforting. And also please understand that I mean no disrespect here, but California got flipped in no small part because Californian conservatives got complacent. Don't ever take Texas's conservatism for granted. This state is a target of the left......and they've only got to overcome a 5.5% difference in voter sentiments in order to flip it. I'm sorry to sound pessimistic, but what happened to California took place during my lifetime. I don't want it to happen here, but it could.......particularly if we take our current advantage for granted.
Give me Liberty, or I'll get up and get it myself.—Hookalakah Meshobbab
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#34

Post by Jusme » Mon May 15, 2017 11:36 am

I agree with TAM,

Texas has only been a so called "conservative State for a relatively short time. We were dyed in the wool Democratic governed for most of our history.
We have even had several former Democrats change parties, including former Governor Connely, so "conservative" is a tenuous, and relative term here.

Most Republican Legislators, didn't win in landslide victories, in their districts, so they still have to respect their liberal constituency. With more people moving in from left leaning states, our hold on the Legislature, is not a sure thing. Not only at the State level, but local, school boards, County commissioners, city councils, and Sheriffs, can easily change the political climate in an area, and bring large voting blocs to the polls.

We have to be vigilant, vote in every election, no matter how trivial, it may seem, and actively campaign, for those who share our values. We have only gotten here through hard work, and dedication, and we are only a few years removed from Californiaesque policies.
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#35

Post by canvasbck » Mon May 15, 2017 11:41 am

Didn't mean to imply that Texas in not trending left. No doubt it is and it's closer than most people think it is. Just going by results in statewide elections (president, Governor, and US Senate) we appear to be at more like 8-10%.

The underlying point is still valid. Were not going to get redder. Migration is towards our urban centers which are clearly left leaning if not dark blue.
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#36

Post by J.R.@A&M » Mon May 15, 2017 12:03 pm

Jusme wrote:I agree with TAM,

Texas has only been a so called "conservative State for a relatively short time. We were dyed in the wool Democratic governed for most of our history.
We have even had several former Democrats change parties, including former Governor Connely, so "conservative" is a tenuous, and relative term here.
From a historical perspective, the State's political divisions generally fell along pro-business, "John Connally Democrats" versus populist "Ralph Yarborough Democrats". Both groups tended to be culturally conservative back then.

All that aside, I agree with the need for modern conservative vigilance.
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#37

Post by RPBrown » Tue May 23, 2017 8:30 am

How sad is it that with a GOP house, senate, and governor, we can only get one 2A item passed.

I heard a report but cannot confirm or deny, that several GOP house members signed on to a few 2A bills AFTER they were dead just so they could say they were in support but couldn't get them moving. I hope that this report is incorrect. and maybe "fake news".
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#38

Post by TxLobo » Tue May 23, 2017 8:40 am

RPBrown wrote:How sad is it that with a GOP house, senate, and governor, we can only get one 2A item passed.

I heard a report but cannot confirm or deny, that several GOP house members signed on to a few 2A bills AFTER they were dead just so they could say they were in support but couldn't get them moving. I hope that this report is incorrect. and maybe "fake news".
I understood that HB 1911 was basically "dead" on 05/08/2017, as you can see from the list of "authors", several signed on after the bill was dead..

http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLook ... ill=HB1911

not knowing? .. getting there name on it so they can say they were for it? .. but looks suspicious..
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#39

Post by locke_n_load » Tue May 23, 2017 8:44 am

RPBrown wrote:How sad is it that with a GOP house, senate, and governor, we can only get one 2A item passed.

I heard a report but cannot confirm or deny, that several GOP house members signed on to a few 2A bills AFTER they were dead just so they could say they were in support but couldn't get them moving. I hope that this report is incorrect. and maybe "fake news".

So we passed SB16, reduction of LTC fees, and that was it, right?
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#40

Post by Papa_Tiger » Tue May 23, 2017 8:51 am

locke_n_load wrote:So we passed SB16, reduction of LTC fees, and that was it, right?
The session isn't over yet. There are still a few other bills that will benefit firearms owners/LTCs that are still being worked on.


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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#41

Post by imkopaka » Tue May 23, 2017 9:52 am

bblhd672 wrote:Unfortunately it is a fact that there are more liberty, freedom and pro-2A states than Texas.

The state's quest to attract businesses to relocate from deep blue states has been successful- the resulting shift to blue state shouldn't be a surprise to those in charge.
You also should consider the left has a long term agenda and the patience to allow the middle and right to help them along.

That's why I'm planning on moving to Idaho once I finish school. Plenty of land out there, and no hideous blue blots on the map (Austin, Houston, etc). It's a nice conservative state with an agreeable climate, a good economy, and a low cost of living. They've had permitless CC and OC for years. On the list TAM posted, it had the second highest 'conservative score' (so to speak).

This legislative session has been an utter disappointment. Taking 3- 4- and 5-day weekends for the first two months, then scrambling at the last minute to...completely ignore all gun-related bills except one. Just...sad.
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#42

Post by locke_n_load » Tue May 23, 2017 10:30 am

Papa_Tiger wrote:
locke_n_load wrote:So we passed SB16, reduction of LTC fees, and that was it, right?
The session isn't over yet. There are still a few other bills that will benefit firearms owners/LTCs that are still being worked on.
From what I hear, every gun bill that hasn't finished going through the process is pretty much dead.
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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#43

Post by Papa_Tiger » Tue May 23, 2017 11:33 am

locke_n_load wrote:
Papa_Tiger wrote:
locke_n_load wrote:So we passed SB16, reduction of LTC fees, and that was it, right?
The session isn't over yet. There are still a few other bills that will benefit firearms owners/LTCs that are still being worked on.
From what I hear, every gun bill that hasn't finished going through the process is pretty much dead.
That is quite possible, however, the following bills still have a chance (from my reading, more-so in the Senate than the House:
HB 14 - State Mental Hospital Clarification - Placed on Senate Intent Calendar
HB 1819 - De-regulation of Suppressors, other non-NFA items - Sent to Governor 5/22
HB 1935 - "Location Restricted Knife" - On Senate Local and Consent Calendar - not a gun bill but still a reduction in restrictions on weapons

SB 263 - LTC Qualification Caliber - On House Local and Consent Calendar
SB 2605 - Place of Worship Volunteer Security by way of amendment - Read second time yesterday, just needs 3rd reading and Senate Concurrence.

Still a lot of time left for things to go wrong, I agree and none of these are major bills, but they do improve some things for LTC holders, those who will qualify for them or other aspects of weapon/firearm ownership.

UPDATE - SB 2605 passed the House.
UPDATE - Did not mean to have HB 913 - should have been HB 1819 which was sent to the governor on 5/22
Last edited by Papa_Tiger on Tue May 23, 2017 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#44

Post by mojo84 » Tue May 23, 2017 12:45 pm

TxLobo wrote:
RPBrown wrote:How sad is it that with a GOP house, senate, and governor, we can only get one 2A item passed.

I heard a report but cannot confirm or deny, that several GOP house members signed on to a few 2A bills AFTER they were dead just so they could say they were in support but couldn't get them moving. I hope that this report is incorrect. and maybe "fake news".
I understood that HB 1911 was basically "dead" on 05/08/2017, as you can see from the list of "authors", several signed on after the bill was dead..

http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLook ... ill=HB1911

not knowing? .. getting there name on it so they can say they were for it? .. but looks suspicious..

If the bolded comment is true, it underlines the importance of identifying during the active session who the RINOS that are working against us in session. Now they will have a year and a half to convince us they are true conservatives that are for the 2nd Amendment. These same folks we were so afraid to offend are the ones quietly killing our legislation behind the scenes.

Both parties promote the opaque process as they think it will work in their favor. The problem is, one side has an inordinate amount of the power and is better at playing hardball politics than the other.


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Re: Did we get shut out this year

#45

Post by tx85 » Tue May 23, 2017 12:48 pm

Papa_Tiger wrote:HB 913 - De-regulation of Suppressors, other non-NFA items - On Senate Local and Consent Calendar
That's not what HB913 does. The latest version (passed out of Senate committee) bans "improvised explosive devices".

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