Gun Ownership Twice as High as Previously Thought?

[Rafe]

From Shooting Illustrated, August 3, 2023:

Gun Ownership Twice as High as Previously Thought?
https://www.shootingillustrated.com/con ... newsletter

Results from a Rutgers University New Jersey Gun Violence Research Center study, released in late June, indicate the number of Americans who own guns could be twice that of the widely accepted figure of roughly 30 percent.... The new report indicates the number is considerably higher and may run all the way up to 60 percent.

The study, titled “Predicting Potential Underreporting of Firearm Ownership in a Nationally Representative Sample,” was published by the Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology journal. The findings endorse a long-held belief in the industry that firearm owners put a higher value on their privacy than non-gun owners, particularly when it comes to questions about gun ownership.

...More urbanites, females and minorities are exercising that right than ever before and, as the study notes, “Our results highlight the potential that several groups, particularly women and individuals living in urban environments, may be prone to falsely denying firearm ownership.”

The left will be troubled by this and will choose to completely ignore it, which is probably why--despite being published almost two months ago--there hasn't been even a single mention of it that I'm aware of in the mainstream media.

But it might bode well for 2A issues in the coming elections. And the numbers simply make sense. We saw the reports that the number of first-time gun buyers was growing dramatically during COVID and the 2021 Summer of Love with scores of violent riots replete with looting and burning going on (BTW, have you seen the reports that in gun-free Hawaii the looters came out, armed, to steal what was still of value in the smoking Maui rubble?), yet estimates overall of gun owner numbers didn't shift. And we see consistently high numbers of NICS checks each month and the reports of continuing high sales volumes of firearms. So it certainly tracks that there are more gun owners than ever previously thought...or at least than accepted.

I mean, I certainly don't have a dedicated walk-in vault with 200 guns, so it ain't the average person who already owned a gun in 1999 who can account for where all the guns go. Take reasonable care of it, and a decent firearm will last a lifetime, and millions more are manufactured and sold--and sold not to military or law-enforcement contracts--every year.

The guns are going somewhere. And to the horror of the leftist politicians who might stop to consider it, there's the observation in that last sentence quoted: "More urbanites, females and minorities are exercising [their Second Amendment] right than ever before and, as the study notes, 'Our results highlight the potential that several groups, particularly women and individuals living in urban environments, may be prone to falsely denying firearm ownership.'" Gasp! Urban females and minorities? Not just old white guys in flyover states? That's the democrats' base!

[Rafe]

And just because I keep a data table for NICS checks as reported by the FBI, I thought I'd attach a chart showing where we are as of July 31.

These in no way directly correlate to new gun purchases or to first-time gun buyers. But in there somewhere there is still a correlation to the movement of firearms among the non-LEO, non-military, and in some instances, like the Great State of Texas, non-LTC citizenry.

The spike years so far have been COVID time, 2021 and 2022. In ordinal rank of the years with the greatest numbers of NICS checks, the Top 5 starting with the highest: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2019, 2016.

As of the end of July, 2023 is on a pace to exceed 2019 and to take its spot as #4. Since the inception of the program in late 1998, there have been a total of 458,279,181 NICS checks processed.

Over the the last four years, we've averaged approximately 34.6 million checks per year, or 2.88 million per month. If that rate continues, we'll cross the half billion mark of total processed sometime in November 2024.

[2farnorth]

You can bet that the Antifa, BLM, etc. activists are arming as well.

[powerboatr]

And just because I keep a data table for NICS checks as reported by the FBI, I thought I'd attach a chart showing where we are as of July 31.

These in no way directly correlate to new gun purchases or to first-time gun buyers. But in there somewhere there is still a correlation to the movement of firearms among the non-LEO, non-military, and in some instances, like the Great State of Texas, non-LTC citizenry.

The spike years so far have been COVID time, 2021 and 2022. In ordinal rank of the years with the greatest numbers of NICS checks, the Top 5 starting with the highest: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2019, 2016.

As of the end of July, 2023 is on a pace to exceed 2019 and to take its spot as #4. Since the inception of the program in late 1998, there have been a total of 458,279,181 NICS checks processed.

Over the the last four years, we've averaged approximately 34.6 million checks per year, or 2.88 million per month. If that rate continues, we'll cross the half billion mark of total processed sometime in November 2024.

thanks thats impressive data

[Grayling813]

You can bet that the Antifa, BLM, etc. activists are arming as well.

Not everyone who is arming up are on the right or have the same desire to restore American ideals.

All those military age males from various countries crossing the border are going to have access to plenty of firearms as well, whether obtained legally or not.

[Rafe]

You can bet that the Antifa, BLM, etc. activists are arming as well.

Not everyone who is arming up are on the right or have the same desire to restore American ideals.

All those military age males from various countries crossing the border are going to have access to plenty of firearms as well, whether obtained legally or not.

I have no doubt. But I think we can absolutely guarantee that Antifa clowns or illegal aliens or gangbangers will never respond to a poll about firearm ownership. So I think it's fairly safe to say that the ~60% that Rutgers predicts will be spread mostly across more of "normal" America.

And the biggest loophole in the NICS is that the people who would (or could) never buy a gun legally will never have an NICS background check run at an FFL. That isn't how they get their guns. And it isn't "ghost guns," either; despite the MSM and the Biden administration, those require some decent equipment--including drill presses that aren't easy to move around--and some skill to make reliably from blank frames. It's far easier and more lucrative to simply steal guns that are lawfully owned, file off the serial numbers, and then sell them on the black market.

You (not you, but D.C. and the states) wanna actually help reduce violence resulting from the illegal use of guns? It ain't by outlawing pistol braces or suppressors or "universal" background checks or preventing law abiding citizens from occasionally selling a firearm to another law abiding citizen or banning black rifles that you know nothing about.

Instead, why don't you try coming down hard on criminals who use guns in crimes? Quit letting them skate on personal recognizance bonds of $100. Then try to find ways of helping stop felons from stealing firearms in the first place. All those LEOs who have quit or retired over woke DAs and wokeism in general? You could have moved some of them out of drug enforcement undercover work and had them target the firearm black market. Wouldn't stop it, but the leftist mantra about gun control is always "if it will save even one life." Well, heck. Plug up, say, even one of Chicago's biggest black market outlets for illegal guns, and you'll save a lot more lives than that in just one city.

Sorry. Let me shove this soapbox back underneath my desk...