Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

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RoyGBiv
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#61

Post by RoyGBiv » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:29 pm

Coronavirus spreads for first time in U.S., CDC says
A person living with the patient diagnosed in Chicago has tested positive for the new coronavirus.
I wonder how many people THAT person infected. And those people. And those people.
2 Weeks is a long incubation period, able to transmit the disease without showing symptoms.
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#62

Post by Grayling813 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:53 pm

Anyone know of an "in-stock" source for N95 or N100 masks?
Precautionary measures.
Bought bleach, bottles of hand soap and hand sanitizer; store was out of masks.
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RoyGBiv
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#63

Post by RoyGBiv » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:03 pm

I am not a lawyer. This is NOT legal advice.!
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strogg
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#64

Post by strogg » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:00 pm

You can always go with a reusable P100 mask. They might look a bit ridiculous, but it'll work. I have one for my personal projects, and it beats me wasting money on the disposable masks. Worse comes to worse, I'll be "that guy" walking around town wearing one.

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03Lightningrocks
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#65

Post by 03Lightningrocks » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:09 pm

Rob72 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:50 pm
philip964 wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:34 pm
I have been told 10% bleach and 90% water is a very effective disinfectant including level4.
True, but overly simplistic. What that means, with a virulent airborne pathogen, is that you have a 2-3 "portal" entry into your home, and a means of handling clothing worn on the outside.

You leave for work, not in a bug-suit, but masked. You come home. You step into the outer tent and get a vapor dispersion bath of (home recipe) 10% bleach. Wait about 3 minutes, and strip naked. Get bathed again, after placing your clothes in a sealed laundry bucket that's in the tent with you. wait. Step into the ante-chamber where you get a rinse. That's really basic, and unnecessary for most things, but really "iffy" for anything on the order of pneumonic plague.

So, yes, bleach solution is a great disinfectant, but every time someone infected with an airborne pathogen breathes, more vapor is expelled, needing decon.

If it isn't overly virulent, wiping down your doorknobs, places where bags & purses are dropped at the end of the day, and LOTS of hand washing is about as good as you'll get. Be sure to use a good hand cream, as dry, cracked skin is an entry for other infections.
Hahaha... yeah... count me as one of the folks who will just take his chances. The CDC is working hard on this one. I am expecting some kind of vaccine to come out. I also wonder if the deaths are mostly along the same lines of deaths from the flue. Older folks, young kids people with existing health issues. The "regular flue" has already killed more folks in the USA than that corona virus has.

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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#66

Post by Beiruty » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:53 pm

My analysis:
Confirmed cases are 8,000
Untested cases are 100,000
Confirmed deaths are 200
Unconfirmed deaths are 3000
Recovered cases are 150

Cases are doubling each 2-3 days
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#67

Post by Lynyrd » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:56 pm

Confirmed cases now close to 10,000. Death toll over 200. That's only a 2%+ mortality rate. But this is going to get worse.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/coronav ... rises.html
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#68

Post by strogg » Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:59 pm

From what I'm reading, the expected mortality rate is between 2-5%. It should dwindle down as humans figure out how to combat the virus. In comparison, the annual flu outbreak has a mortality rate of 0.1%. The only scary thing about the virus is the two week incubation period, so containment will be rough. At mortality rates that low, we're looking at mostly very young children and the elderly. I don't see this being as bad as the Spanish flu. I, for one, will not be worried.

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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#69

Post by Beiruty » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:02 pm

If it is an uncontained and assume the mortality rate is 2% say a country of 100,000,000 has 2% overall mortality rate annually. Now, it would doouble leading to catastrophic economical consequences
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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#70

Post by jason812 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:07 pm

strogg wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:59 pm
From what I'm reading, the expected mortality rate is between 2-5%. It should dwindle down as humans figure out how to combat the virus. In comparison, the annual flu outbreak has a mortality rate of 0.1%. The only scary thing about the virus is the two week incubation period, so containment will be rough. At mortality rates that low, we're looking at mostly very young children and the elderly. I don't see this being as bad as the Spanish flu. I, for one, will not be worried.
2-5% in a 3rd world country. I would expect even less here and probably more if it spreads in the African continent. Now, that could change if the ratio is drastically different than what's being reported. Even with the suspected cases, the mortality rate is about 3% which could still mean a lot of people could die.


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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#71

Post by jason812 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:10 pm

Beiruty wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:02 pm
If it is an uncontained and assume the mortality rate is 2% say a country of 100,000,000 has 2% overall mortality rate annually. Now, it would doouble leading to catastrophic economical consequences
This will wreck China's already weakening economy. Short term it may hurt ours too but it could lead to an awakening that we need to bring back manufacturing to the US. I wonder how my old company feels about outsourcing my job to the Chinese now?


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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#72

Post by eyedoc » Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:51 am

jason812 wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:07 pm
strogg wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:59 pm
From what I'm reading, the expected mortality rate is between 2-5%. It should dwindle down as humans figure out how to combat the virus. In comparison, the annual flu outbreak has a mortality rate of 0.1%. The only scary thing about the virus is the two week incubation period, so containment will be rough. At mortality rates that low, we're looking at mostly very young children and the elderly. I don't see this being as bad as the Spanish flu. I, for one, will not be worried.
2-5% in a 3rd world country. I would expect even less here and probably more if it spreads in the African continent. Now, that could change if the ratio is drastically different than what's being reported. Even with the suspected cases, the mortality rate is about 3% which could still mean a lot of people could die.
China covering up true number of Coronavirus mortalities
NEWS | Jan 27, 00:39 GMT | By Ross J Burland
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While China's Coronavirus (CoV) death toll rises to at least 80 from 56.
China could be covering up the true picture to avoid a panic.
While China's Coronavirus (CoV) death toll rises to at least 80 from 56, with 2744 confirmed cases of WuhanCoronavirus, there are some reports that argue that China is suppressing the full extent of nCoV's lethality, and keeping the mortality rate of the coronavirus artificially low.

It appears that the underlying incentive is to underreport the true extent of the epidemic for as long as possible. Casting minds back to 2003, a Chinese doctor exposed the cover-up of China’s SARS outbreak. Dr. Jiang disclosed in a letter circulated to international news organizations that at least 100 people were being treated in Beijing hospitals for severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.

At the time, the Chinese medical authorities were asserting that the entire nation had only a handful of cases of the disease. The revelation prompted China’s top leaders to acknowledge that they had provided false information about the epidemic. The health minister and the mayor of Beijing were removed from their posts.

This time around, instead of putting down coronavirus as the cause of death for an unknown number of Wuhan casualties, China's coroners and hospitals merely ascribe death to "viral pneumonia", case closed.

A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs.

Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia,”

– reported in the WSJ, which gives us an insight to how China could be keeping the mortality rate of the coronavirus artificially low to void a panic.

"There are likely to be many times more cases in Wuhan than officially confirmed,” said Neil Ferguson, a disease modeler at Imperial College London, estimating as many as 4,000 people may have been infected in Wuhan.

What's worse is that if there are indeed 4,000 injected already, then the previously discussed catastrophic forecast of 250,000 cases by Feb 4 may be overly optimistic by half.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-cov ... 2001270039


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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#73

Post by philip964 » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:31 pm

https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/01/30 ... l-in-sick/

Ohio school district closes for 2 days after 600 students call in sick.

Regular flu.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/a ... d=12304547

China burning bodies in secret.


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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#74

Post by Ruark » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:45 pm

My wife is a nurse practitioner, exposed to flu every day, and tells me this:

Don't handle stuff you don't have to, especially in public places. Doorknobs, merchandise, etc. Always be mindful of what you're touching out there.

At ALL times in public, KEEP YOUR HANDS AWAY FROM YOUR FACE. The "gateway" for viruses entering your body is through your eyes, nose and mouth.

Any time you've been in public, walked through a public door, etc. wash your hands. Keep a little bottle of hand sanitizer in your car and use it every time you get in the car, before you touch anything.
-Ruark


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Re: Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) from China: Its going to be bad.

#75

Post by Pete92FS » Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:42 pm

Does anyone really expect the Chinese gov't to be forthcoming about anything?
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