Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

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PWK
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Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#1

Post by PWK » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:27 pm

My voting strategy for 08 is to vote for Bob Barr as I am in Texas and this state will almost for sure go McCain. In fact any state that is already going one way another allows true gun rights, conservative liberty supporters quite an opportunity. Consider TX, if McC gets 48%, Others (Barr et all) 13% and BO 39% then McC gets all the electoral votes. It is amazing how few people know how the electoral votes are distributed. To get all the electoral votes you only need the most popular votes not the majority of votes. Even when explaining it people still don't get it which will guarantee McC takes TX. If in CA or NY which will undoubtedly go BO then a vote for Barr doesn't change anything. What I'd like to see is McC win with less than 50% of the vote, BO get around 40% and others pick up the rest. I personally think BO's popularity will shrink in the voting booth. Basically, what I believe will be best given our pathetic choices from both the Dems & Repubs is a weak McC presidency where no elected rep will stand with him. When he backpedals on drilling for oil few Repubs will go along with him, when he tries for amnesty for illegals nobody goes along with him. He is basically a lame duck from day 1, gridlock reigns supreme. And we get a strong foreign/military policy too. Tis a wonderful thing.


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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#2

Post by tboesche » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:15 am

PWK,
While I commend you on voting your choice, I can't help but think it is a wasted vote. Now hold on, don't get angry. I do not think that McCain will be a great president. But he got my vote anyway. The reason I say this is that any vote NOT for McCain IS a vote for Obama. Lets face it, Barr has zero chance of being elected. In our system, only a Dem or a Rep will be elected. Is it fair. No way, but that is the way it is. Again, I commend you for making your voice heard, but at this point........we have to elect the candidate that will do the least amount of damage to our country.
"Water's, wet, The sky is blue. And old Satan Claws, He's out there, and he's just getting stronger." Joe Halenbeck
"So what do we do about it?" Jimmie Dix
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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#3

Post by Kalrog » Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:58 am

I think you missed the point - because it is all about the electoral college, a vote for Barr in Texas is NOT a vote for Obama. It might play out that way in Ohio or Florida, but not in Texas where the electoral votes are all but locked up for the R candidate. This might also not be the case in smaller/local elections.

The point is that we have a horrible person running in the "R" camp, but if we keep voting for them because they are the "lesser of 2 evils", then the R party has no reason to change as they can count on our vote. But if it looks like they need to court us in order to assure our vote, then maybe we can actually get some true conservative / smaller government people back into the party and/or platform. A high Libertarian turnout says that much more loudly than not voting at all. Voting for McCain doesn't encourage the needed changes at all. Of course, having 3+ viable parties in most elections would be very nice.

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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#4

Post by The Annoyed Man » Wed Oct 22, 2008 12:14 pm

I echo what tboesche said. That is what I meant when I posted this thread about the ACORN platform and Obama's being inextricably wedded to it.

McCain was not my first pick for the GOP nomination, but the fact is that he wound up getting it. Like tboesche said, it's going to be either McCain or Obama in the White House. There is no other choice with a realistic chance of getting elected. Right now today, if the most recent polls are to be believed, McCain is barely even in the battle ground states, and behind in almost every other state. However, that is actually an improvement for him from just a week ago. In other words, things appear to be shifting in his direction as the last days of the campaign wind down. Even so, at best McCain would win by the very slimmest of margins; whereas an Obama win could potentially be a blowout.

As I said in the other thread:
Think of this before casting your vote for anybody else except McCain/Palin. Obama supports and is driven by the ACORN agenda. This document proves that ACORN is a socialist organization. Therefore, Obama supports and is driven by a socialist agenda. That will drive his budgetary plans, his tax plans, his healthcare plans, his Supreme Court nominations, his assaults on your gun rights, your freedom of speech, ALL of it. If you are a conservative or libertarian whose conscience and heart may not reside with McCain/Palin because they are not conservative/libertarian enough, this platform below is what you will be helping to bring about if you vote for anyone else next month. If Obama/ACORN win, may God help us all, because we are going to badly need it.
While I was never a Barr supporter, I am more conservative than McCain, and like I said above, he would not have been my first choice. BUT... he is the only one currently in the race who has even a prayer of defeating Obama - and it is absolutely critical that Obama be defeated.

Barr doesn't have a snowball's chance of getting elected. Period. If you cast your vote for Barr (or any other third party candidate), the net effect will be to take a vote away from McCain. That net deduction has the mathematical effect of putting Obama up by one vote. That's just the cold hard math of it. Putting Obama up by one vote takes you one vote further away from what you want out of government. If you want to know how that will impact you, go read my thread which I linked above.

On the other hand, if you vote for McCain, you will get at least a small part of what you want, and you will have contributed to staving off the catastrophe that an Obama victory would mean. Even former Democrat presidential candidate George McGovern thinks Obama is too liberal. McGovern, by the way, is undergoing his own conversion to libertarianism.

Your vote, my vote, anybody's vote, is more than just an expression of political conscience. It has real and measurable consequences. Those consequences are expressed in the changes to the nation following any presidential election. If you like Obama's vision for the nation, and agree with his plan for achieving it, go ahead and vote him. Neither Barr's nor McCain's platforms are the same as Obama's. However, your vote for Barr's platform will have the consequence of promoting Obama's. Being realistic, there aren't enough libertarian votes in the state of Texas to swing the state's electoral votes away from either Obama or McCain and toward Barr. There just aren't. But let's assume that 10% of the state's voters are libertarians... ...the race between republican and democrat voters is tighter than that. Right now, RealClearPolitics.com quotes Rasmussen as showing McCain up by 9% in the state. If all libertarians and disaffected republicans go vote for Barr or some other third party candidate, Obama probably wins Texas - and there went that pro-gun majority you were counting on to make it safe for you personally to vote for Barr. However, as of today, RealClearPolitics.com shows Obama up by 7.6% nationally. If that holds, then Obama wins by a landslide.

In politics as in other endeavors, the law of unintended consequences applies. There is no escaping it, and it is unrealistic to think that you can. You may not intend an Obama win, but if enough disaffected conservatives vote third party instead of Republican this year, an Obama win will nevertheless be the consequence. The responsibility for that consequence will lie squarely on the shoulders of those who voted for either Obama directly, or for a third party candidate, and not upon the shoulders of those who acknowledged the political realities, held their noses, and voted for the win.

What you are proposing isn't a strategy, it's a protest. Strategies are actually calculated to win. Voting for Barr isn't calculating to win. The reality is that voting for Barr is voting for the spoiler. I am pleading with you to reconsider.
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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#5

Post by flintknapper » Wed Oct 22, 2008 12:22 pm

The Annoyed Man wrote:I echo what tboesche said. That is what I meant when I posted this thread about the ACORN platform and Obama's being inextricably wedded to it.

McCain was not my first pick for the GOP nomination, but the fact is that he wound up getting it. Like tboesche said, it's going to be either McCain or Obama in the White House. There is no other choice with a realistic chance of getting elected. Right now today, if the most recent polls are to be believed, McCain is barely even in the battle ground states, and behind in almost every other state. However, that is actually an improvement for him from just a week ago. In other words, things appear to be shifting in his direction as the last days of the campaign wind down. Even so, at best McCain would win by the very slimmest of margins; whereas an Obama win could potentially be a blowout.

As I said in the other thread:
Think of this before casting your vote for anybody else except McCain/Palin. Obama supports and is driven by the ACORN agenda. This document proves that ACORN is a socialist organization. Therefore, Obama supports and is driven by a socialist agenda. That will drive his budgetary plans, his tax plans, his healthcare plans, his Supreme Court nominations, his assaults on your gun rights, your freedom of speech, ALL of it. If you are a conservative or libertarian whose conscience and heart may not reside with McCain/Palin because they are not conservative/libertarian enough, this platform below is what you will be helping to bring about if you vote for anyone else next month. If Obama/ACORN win, may God help us all, because we are going to badly need it.
While I was never a Barr supporter, I am more conservative than McCain, and like I said above, he would not have been my first choice. BUT... he is the only one currently in the race who has even a prayer of defeating Obama - and it is absolutely critical that Obama be defeated.

Barr doesn't have a snowball's chance of getting elected. Period. If you cast your vote for Barr (or any other third party candidate), the net effect will be to take a vote away from McCain. That net deduction has the mathematical effect of putting Obama up by one vote. That's just the cold hard math of it. Putting Obama up by one vote takes you one vote further away from what you want out of government. If you want to know how that will impact you, go read my thread which I linked above.

On the other hand, if you vote for McCain, you will get at least a small part of what you want, and you will have contributed to staving off the catastrophe that an Obama victory would mean. Even former Democrat presidential candidate George McGovern thinks Obama is too liberal. McGovern, by the way, is undergoing his own conversion to libertarianism.

Your vote, my vote, anybody's vote, is more than just an expression of political conscience. It has real and measurable consequences. Those consequences are expressed in the changes to the nation following any presidential election. If you like Obama's vision for the nation, and agree with his plan for achieving it, go ahead and vote him. Neither Barr's nor McCain's platforms are the same as Obama's. However, your vote for Barr's platform will have the consequence of promoting Obama's. Being realistic, there aren't enough libertarian votes in the state of Texas to swing the state's electoral votes away from either Obama or McCain and toward Barr. There just aren't. But let's assume that 10% of the state's voters are libertarians... ...the race between republican and democrat voters is tighter than that. Right now, RealClearPolitics.com quotes Rasmussen as showing McCain up by 9% in the state. If all libertarians and disaffected republicans go vote for Barr or some other third party candidate, Obama probably wins Texas - and there went that pro-gun majority you were counting on to make it safe for you personally to vote for Barr. However, as of today, RealClearPolitics.com shows Obama up by 7.6% nationally. If that holds, then Obama wins by a landslide.

In politics as in other endeavors, the law of unintended consequences applies. There is no escaping it, and it is unrealistic to think that you can. You may not intend an Obama win, but if enough disaffected conservatives vote third party instead of Republican this year, an Obama win will nevertheless be the consequence. The responsibility for that consequence will lie squarely on the shoulders of those who voted for either Obama directly, or for a third party candidate, and not upon the shoulders of those who acknowledged the political realities, held their noses, and voted for the win.

What you are proposing isn't a strategy, it's a protest. Strategies are actually calculated to win. Voting for Barr isn't calculating to win. The reality is that voting for Barr is voting for the spoiler. I am pleading with you to reconsider.
:iagree:

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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#6

Post by The Annoyed Man » Wed Oct 22, 2008 12:35 pm

Kalrog wrote:I think you missed the point - because it is all about the electoral college, a vote for Barr in Texas is NOT a vote for Obama. It might play out that way in Ohio or Florida, but not in Texas where the electoral votes are all but locked up for the R candidate. This might also not be the case in smaller/local elections.

The point is that we have a horrible person running in the "R" camp, but if we keep voting for them because they are the "lesser of 2 evils", then the R party has no reason to change as they can count on our vote. But if it looks like they need to court us in order to assure our vote, then maybe we can actually get some true conservative / smaller government people back into the party and/or platform. A high Libertarian turnout says that much more loudly than not voting at all. Voting for McCain doesn't encourage the needed changes at all. Of course, having 3+ viable parties in most elections would be very nice.
Kalrog, I appreciate what you're saying, but I couldn't disagree more. It's a false strategy. As I posted above, Rasmussen shows McCain up by 9% (in a fluctuating and volatile polling enviroment). If 10% of Texas votes libertarian this year, OBAMA GETS THE STATE'S ELECTORAL VOTES!! That's just plain old math. There's no way around it. So the more you encourage Texas libertarians to vote for Barr instead of McCain, the more you encourage an Obama win for the state's electoral votes. Your vote is not without consequence. If your strategy blows up in your face and Obama wins Texas, it will not be the fault of Texans who voted Democrat - because they are currently behind by 9%. It will not be the fault of Texans who voted Republican - because they voted to maintain that 9% lead. However, it will be the fault of Texans who voted third party - because they voted to squander the Republican lead.

I think it boils down to whether or not you believe that an Obama win will result in irreparable damage to the nation. Understand that, if he wins, Obama's administration is likely to last 8 long years. Do you think that you will still have the right to a CHL 8 years down the road into an Obama administration? If you currently own an AR variant, M1A1, AK variant, FN-FAL variant, do you think you will still lawfully own one 8 years down the road with an Obama administration? Do you think that, 8 years from now, centerfire rifle ammunition will still be legal if Obama wins? Do you think that FTF transactions will still be legal in Texas 8 years onto an Obama administration? Do you think that a Democrat supermajority with a Democrat president won't pass the unions' desired "card check" law? Do you think they won't pass the "fairness doctrine" for broadcast media? Do you think your taxes will go up or down if Obama is elected? Do you think the Supreme Court won't be packed with liberals who will rule by judicial fiat for the next 30 years?

You're willing to pursue that strategy in the face of all these things, but not willing to take ownership of the consequences of how you vote? And by the way, Barr isn't running in Texas only, and those will be the consequences for any Libertarian who votes for Barr in this particular election. It is a luxury the nation cannot afford.
Give me Liberty, or I'll get up and get it myself.—Hookalakah Meshobbab
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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#7

Post by PWK » Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:18 pm

Don't mean to insult anyone but Kalrog gets it. The rest are trapped in this majority vote mindset. Which is why the plan works. So few understand the electoral college and how politicians play it. Why do you think BO and McC are spending no time in TX, CA or NY. They don't care about the majority vote. Cause there all wrapped up. A vote in CA for Barr is not, repeat not, a vote for BO. A lot of people, especially party officials, want to see their party garner the most votes because many state election laws are set up to favor parties that get high vote counts. It's their way of keeping a 3rd party from rising up. If there is one thing that Repub's & Dem's can agree on is there ain't no way their going to allow a 3rd party to rise up.

In TX if Barr gets 10%, McC gets 45.2% and BO gets 44.8% McC gets all the electorial votes. No way BO pulls more than 42% in TX. The reverse is true for CA & NY. It is a numbers game and that is all.

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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#8

Post by Liberty » Wed Oct 22, 2008 4:56 pm

The Annoyed Man wrote: Kalrog, I appreciate what you're saying, but I couldn't disagree more. It's a false strategy. As I posted above, Rasmussen shows McCain up by 9% (in a fluctuating and volatile polling enviroment). If 10% of Texas votes libertarian this year, OBAMA GETS THE STATE'S ELECTORAL VOTES!! That's just plain old math. There's no way around it. So the more you encourage Texas libertarians to vote for Barr instead of McCain, the more you encourage an Obama win for the state's electoral votes. Your vote is not without consequence. If your strategy blows up in your face and Obama wins Texas, it will not be the fault of Texans who voted Democrat - because they are currently behind by 9%. It will not be the fault of Texans who voted Republican - because they voted to maintain that 9% lead. However, it will be the fault of Texans who voted third party - because they voted to squander the Republican lead.
The last poll I saw had McCain ahead by 19 percent. Your numbers don't add up though . The Rasmusan poll is the only poll that shows such a small lead. Your assumption is if every undecided voter jumped to the Libertarian side that Obama would win. The polls already take into concideration the Libertarian vote Which is one reason that the nuMbers don't add up to 100%.

The Republican party this year has offered us conservatives swill, and their argument is that McCain swill should be easier to swallow than Obama swill. I will vote in conscience for the Libertarian instead of the garbage the Democrats and Republicans are trying to jam down our throats.

Obama is favored by ignorant. Onbce he is elected there will be a great awaking once the ignorant are shown what socialism really means. He likely won't get elected a second term. Most democrats don't.
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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#9

Post by KBCraig » Wed Oct 22, 2008 8:51 pm

The best response yet, seen on opencarry.org:

"Blame me for wasting my vote? Try blaming the GOP for wasting a nomination!"

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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#10

Post by The Annoyed Man » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:26 pm

Liberty wrote:The last poll I saw had McCain ahead by 19 percent. Your numbers don't add up though . The Rasmusan poll is the only poll that shows such a small lead. Your assumption is if every undecided voter jumped to the Libertarian side that Obama would win. The polls already take into concideration the Libertarian vote Which is one reason that the nuMbers don't add up to 100%.

The Republican party this year has offered us conservatives swill, and their argument is that McCain swill should be easier to swallow than Obama swill. I will vote in conscience for the Libertarian instead of the garbage the Democrats and Republicans are trying to jam down our throats.

Obama is favored by ignorant. Onbce he is elected there will be a great awaking once the ignorant are shown what socialism really means. He likely won't get elected a second term. Most democrats don't.
First, let me say that it is not my intention to be disrespectful, so please don't take what I write next that way, but I absolutely could not disagree with you more. So, let's unpack what you've said here...

First:
You said Obama is favored by the ignorant. Well, that makes somewhat more than half of the nation's voters then to be ignorant. (I prefer the word "deceived.") If their ignorance causes them to favor Obama, and his policies reinforce their ignorance, then they aren't likely to change, are they? Therefore, 4 years from now, virtually all of those voters will still support Obama... ...plus the additional votes he picks up between this election and the next. That's not much of an awakening. It took Russians 80 years to decide they didn't like socialism. Guess what? My mother was there recently, and a huge number of Russians miss the old days and would like to return to a more socialist system. That's not much of an awakening. Most of Europe has been largely socialist for 50 years or more. They still like it that way, and whenever the government of France threatens to cut back entitlements even the tiniest bit, tens of thousands of people riot in the streets and burn cars. That's not much of an awakening. When you institute socialism, you rob the people of the ability to make future decisions in a responsible manner. They never get it back. Maybe they do as a small number of individuals, but not as a people. If Obama gets the chance to institute his socialist policies, they will be here permanently. Even if it does change, it can take many decades, and as the Russian example proves, they often want it back after they've gotten rid of it. Imagining that people will change their socialist tendencies once they've had a taste of the real thing is wishful thinking.

Second:
The Rasmussen polls are polls of likely voters, which means a heck of a lot more than other polls, and which is why they are so respected by both major parties. It's like the difference between asking all gun owners if they prefer Glocks or 1911s, or asking just those who are most likely to actually buy one or the other 3 weeks from now. The second group will give you a far more accurate answer, because they are the ones actually putting their money where their mouth is. Any poll showing a McCain lead of 19% is just plain loopy because it is not based on likely voters, so you're basing your hope in that regard on a chimera. I realize that the polls take Libertarians into account, but if a reliable poll shows a McCain lead of 9%, and your argument persuades the most conservative elements of the Republican voters to do what you are doing because they are not satisfied with McCain (and many of us are not entirely satisfied with him), then that 9% dwindles to nothing, and Barr's smooth talking has given the state over to Obama. And, any reputable pollster will tell you that their number has a margin of error of +/- 3-4%. So, if McCain's lead shrinks in Texas to 3%, then an Obama victory in Texas is well within the margin of error, so McCain doesn't really need to lose all 9% to risk losing the state.

Third:
You're also assuming that, if Obama gets elected, the people who elected him won't like what they get. That's a false premise. They are voting for him precisely because he stands unapologetically for what he says he stands for - even if he doesn't like to use the "socialism" word. They are going to be delighted with him, because they stand for exactly the same things they do. It is conservatives who aren't going to like what they get, and they already know he's a train wreck waiting to happen. BTW, I have heard a number of experienced political strategists, liberal and conservative, who actually work to elect electable candidates state that they believe that an Obama administration will last eight years, but that a McCain administration will likely only last 4 years - which would give conservatives time to lift up another candidate who has better credentials. Their opinion is based on actual working experience. Yours is based on wishful thinking. Mine is based on a healthy fear of Obama.

Fourth:
Who are those Obama voters comprised of? They are the 40% who don't pay any taxes at all anyway of the 95% that Obama always talks about giving a tax break to, who are going to receive a handout of money they haven't worked for, paid for by the money he has ripped off from those who actually paid taxes. They are every single grievance group of racial minority, who in the aggregate, comprise 40-50% of the general population and who have been successfully exploited by Democrats in the politics of racial division and class warfare. They are are not going to reject Obama's brand of socialism because their wallets will be fatter because of it without doing any additional work. Do you think for one minute that, on a political landscape in which playing the race card is now the standard tactic whenever someone cannot confront logic with logic, that logic will ever again have a chance in electoral politics? Nope. This particular election season has forever changed the way politics is done in this country. An honorable candidate with a wealth of good ideas cannot get elected in America anymore if his ideas depend on the personal responsibility of the electorate in order to work. As a libertarian, you should be doubly aware of that fact.

Obama's administration will excuse people from the consequences of their actions or lack thereof and will no longer require it from any of them. In fact, he has already tried to redefine personal responsibility, with some degree of success by the way, as the duty to pay higher taxes on the part of the wealthy so that the less wealthy don't have to be responsible. You don't like what republicans and democrats are forcing down your throat right now? What 'til Obama's president. He's going to force it on you, but it won't be down your throat, it will involve some other part of your anatomy. Once a sitting president has taught 150 million people that they no longer have to be responsible for their own conditions because government will do it for them, do you seriously think that the next president can ever convince them of anything different? It ain't gonna happen. Not in 4 years. Not in 16 years. That opportunity will have sailed for distant ports, and it ain't a comin' back.

In Conclusion:
So you can go ahead and give your vote to Barr if that's what floats your boat (even though voting 3rd party is functionally the same thing as giving it to Obama), but that choice ignores boots on the ground political reality, and reality makes no allowances for yours or anybody else's wishful thinking. Reality just is what it is. In a close election (and this one does appear to be tightening up), if McCain loses it will be the fault of conservative people who did exactly what you are advocating. Welcome to Obama's world. I hope you like it, because you'll never again see the world you want. It will have been permanently altered. You're not going to have the chance to change it back in 4 or 8 years. That's not a realistic expectation because the sin of socialism will have already been released from Pandora's box and set fully into motion (see the Russia example above). It is far easier to say "No, you can't have that" than it is to take back what has already been given away. Similarly it is almost impossible to regain a right that has already been lost. Remember that the Democrats are very confident, with some reason, that they will pick up a filibuster proof super-majority in Congress this go around. And, they will have a sympathetic president if Obama is elected. What are you going to do when Obama's "common sense" solutions say you can't have a CHL anymore? What are you going to do when Obama's "common sense" solutions make you surrender your AR/AK? What are you going to do when Obama says you can't buy centerfire rifle ammunition for hunting anymore because it is too powerful, and you don't need something that powerful? What are you going to do when Obama says you can only own a revolver, in .22 long rifle, and it must be stored at the local police station, because all semi-automatic pistols have been reclassified as machine guns? (Don't believe it? Look at DC's gun laws, which Obama supports.) They will have the political muscle to enforce all those things, and there won't be a single thing that any conservative can do about it - short of an armed insurrection. A Republican president with the power of a veto is the one thing that stands in the way of all this.

After you've lost all those things, are you going to come back here and opine that in 4 years, you'll get all those rights back? Ask the English and the Australians how well getting their gun rights back worked out for them. In case you've forgotten, it didn't work out well for them at all - and that is the vision that Obama has for this country. He wants us to be exactly like Europe. Speaking of Europe, what are you going to do when an Obama administration makes preaching what the Old Testament says about homosexuality into a crime of hate speech, like it is in Switzerland and Germany, where a pastor can be imprisoned for it. Talk about "failed policies!" That is what voting your bedrock conservative conscience will do for this nation during this particular election cycle if you can't see you're way to compromising with the more moderate elements of the Republican party even just for this election.

At almost any other time, I would say go ahead. I might disagree with you, but vive la difference. I just don't believe we have that luxury this time.

I'll stop here. The Bible was certainly right that "Pride goeth before the fall." Like I said, I call myself a conservative, but I certainly hope that conservative pride doesn't take us to the fall. Because we'll never recover from it.

That's my 2¢. I realize that I probably didn't say one thing to get you to change your mind. Again, I meant none of the above in disrespect. I just profoundly disagree with you.
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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#11

Post by Liberty » Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:36 am

The Annoyed Man wrote:
First, let me say that it is not my intention to be disrespectful, so please don't take what I write next that way, but I absolutely could not disagree with you more. So, let's unpack what you've said here...

First:
You said Obama is favored by the ignorant. Well, that makes somewhat more than half of the nation's voters then to be ignorant. (I prefer the word "deceived.") If their ignorance causes them to favor Obama, and his policies reinforce their ignorance, then they aren't likely to change, are they? Therefore, 4 years from now, virtually all of those voters will still support Obama... ...plus the additional votes he picks up between this election and the next. That's not much of an awakening. It took Russians 80 years to decide they didn't like socialism. Guess what? My mother was there recently, and a huge number of Russians miss the old days and would like to return to a more socialist system. That's not much of an awakening. Most of Europe has been largely socialist for 50 years or more. They still like it that way, and whenever the government of France threatens to cut back entitlements even the tiniest bit, tens of thousands of people riot in the streets and burn cars. That's not much of an awakening. When you institute socialism, you rob the people of the ability to make future decisions in a responsible manner. They never get it back. Maybe they do as a small number of individuals, but not as a people. If Obama gets the chance to institute his socialist policies, they will be here permanently. Even if it does change, it can take many decades, and as the Russian example proves, they often want it back after they've gotten rid of it. Imagining that people will change their socialist tendencies once they've had a taste of the real thing is wishful thinking.
I've never seen any of the words you've typed as anything other than polite and intelligent discussion. Thanks,

We have in recent history drifted to the far left with wild eyed leftists. LBJ, and Jimmy Carter, we rejected them the second time around. The Obama supporters that I have talked to are typically young and have no sense of history, and believe that constitution charges the government with taking care of its people. I call that ignorance. Of course this is only my personal experiance.
The Annoyed Man wrote: Second:
The Rasmussen polls are polls of likely voters, which means a heck of a lot more than other polls, and which is why they are so respected by both major parties. It's like the difference between asking all gun owners if they prefer Glocks or 1911s, or asking just those who are most likely to actually buy one or the other 3 weeks from now. The second group will give you a far more accurate answer, because they are the ones actually putting their money where their mouth is. Any poll showing a McCain lead of 19% is just plain loopy because it is not based on likely voters, so you're basing your hope in that regard on a chimera. I realize that the polls take Libertarians into account, but if a reliable poll shows a McCain lead of 9%, and your argument persuades the most conservative elements of the Republican voters to do what you are doing because they are not satisfied with McCain (and many of us are not entirely satisfied with him), then that 9% dwindles to nothing, and Barr's smooth talking has given the state over to Obama. And, any reputable pollster will tell you that their number has a margin of error of +/- 3-4%. So, if McCain's lead shrinks in Texas to 3%, then an Obama victory in Texas is well within the margin of error, so McCain doesn't really need to lose all 9% to risk losing the state.
Even a 9% difference is huge. I suppose that conservatives have cause to feel paranoid, but worrying that a few Liberterian votes will throw the election to the Obamans is overboard, if things in Texas swing that much to the left, I'm afraid the rest of the nation would have swung too and it will be a landslide without Texan ballots anyway. Both Obama and McCain understand that Texans have already decided and that it isn't worth spending money or time here.
Third:
You're also assuming that, if Obama gets elected, the people who elected him won't like what they get. That's a false premise. They are voting for him precisely because he stands unapologetically for what he says he stands for - even if he doesn't like to use the "socialism" word. They are going to be delighted with him, because they stand for exactly the same things they do. It is conservatives who aren't going to like what they get, and they already know he's a train wreck waiting to happen. BTW, I have heard a number of experienced political strategists, liberal and conservative, who actually work to elect electable candidates state that they believe that an Obama administration will last eight years, but that a McCain administration will likely only last 4 years - which would give conservatives time to lift up another candidate who has better credentials. Their opinion is based on actual working experience. Yours is based on wishful thinking. Mine is based on a healthy fear of Obama.
Those talking heads really have no better of an idea than you or I. It is assumed that McCain only has 4 more years to him in and that Obama is younger and likely to run. The pundits forget that we as a nation won't re-elect leftist. We are not France. Presidents are not selected by the the Leftists or Right winged but by the middle grounders. Middle grounders are typically the ignorant who don't understand the difference. Think about it, how can anyone be "undecided" in this election? The ignorant are about to get a real education over the next 4 years.
The Annoyed Man wrote: Fourth:
Who are those Obama voters comprised of? They are the 40% who don't pay any taxes at all anyway of the 95% that Obama always talks about giving a tax break to, who are going to receive a handout of money they haven't worked for, paid for by the money he has ripped off from those who actually paid taxes. They are every single grievance group of racial minority, who in the aggregate, comprise 40-50% of the general population and who have been successfully exploited by Democrats in the politics of racial division and class warfare. They are are not going to reject Obama's brand of socialism because their wallets will be fatter because of it without doing any additional work. Do you think for one minute that, on a political landscape in which playing the race card is now the standard tactic whenever someone cannot confront logic with logic, that logic will ever again have a chance in electoral politics? Nope. This particular election season has forever changed the way politics is done in this country. An honorable candidate with a wealth of good ideas cannot get elected in America anymore if his ideas depend on the personal responsibility of the electorate in order to work. As a libertarian, you should be doubly aware of that fact.

Obama's administration will excuse people from the consequences of their actions or lack thereof and will no longer require it from any of them. In fact, he has already tried to redefine personal responsibility, with some degree of success by the way, as the duty to pay higher taxes on the part of the wealthy so that the less wealthy don't have to be responsible. You don't like what republicans and democrats are forcing down your throat right now? What 'til Obama's president. He's going to force it on you, but it won't be down your throat, it will involve some other part of your anatomy. Once a sitting president has taught 150 million people that they no longer have to be responsible for their own conditions because government will do it for them, do you seriously think that the next president can ever convince them of anything different? It ain't gonna happen. Not in 4 years. Not in 16 years. That opportunity will have sailed for distant ports, and it ain't a comin' back.

In Conclusion:
So you can go ahead and give your vote to Barr if that's what floats your boat (even though voting 3rd party is functionally the same thing as giving it to Obama), but that choice ignores boots on the ground political reality, and reality makes no allowances for yours or anybody else's wishful thinking. Reality just is what it is. In a close election (and this one does appear to be tightening up), if McCain loses it will be the fault of conservative people who did exactly what you are advocating. Welcome to Obama's world. I hope you like it, because you'll never again see the world you want. It will have been permanently altered. You're not going to have the chance to change it back in 4 or 8 years. That's not a realistic expectation because the sin of socialism will have already been released from Pandora's box and set fully into motion (see the Russia example above). It is far easier to say "No, you can't have that" than it is to take back what has already been given away. Similarly it is almost impossible to regain a right that has already been lost. Remember that the Democrats are very confident, with some reason, that they will pick up a filibuster proof super-majority in Congress this go around. And, they will have a sympathetic president if Obama is elected. What are you going to do when Obama's "common sense" solutions say you can't have a CHL anymore? What are you going to do when Obama's "common sense" solutions make you surrender your AR/AK? What are you going to do when Obama says you can't buy centerfire rifle ammunition for hunting anymore because it is too powerful, and you don't need something that powerful? What are you going to do when Obama says you can only own a revolver, in .22 long rifle, and it must be stored at the local police station, because all semi-automatic pistols have been reclassified as machine guns? (Don't believe it? Look at DC's gun laws, which Obama supports.) They will have the political muscle to enforce all those things, and there won't be a single thing that any conservative can do about it - short of an armed insurrection. A Republican president with the power of a veto is the one thing that stands in the way of all this.

After you've lost all those things, are you going to come back here and opine that in 4 years, you'll get all those rights back? Ask the English and the Australians how well getting their gun rights back worked out for them. In case you've forgotten, it didn't work out well for them at all - and that is the vision that Obama has for this country. He wants us to be exactly like Europe. Speaking of Europe, what are you going to do when an Obama administration makes preaching what the Old Testament says about homosexuality into a crime of hate speech, like it is in Switzerland and Germany, where a pastor can be imprisoned for it. Talk about "failed policies!" That is what voting your bedrock conservative conscience will do for this nation during this particular election cycle if you can't see you're way to compromising with the more moderate elements of the Republican party even just for this election.

At almost any other time, I would say go ahead. I might disagree with you, but vive la difference. I just don't believe we have that luxury this time.

I'll stop here. The Bible was certainly right that "Pride goeth before the fall." Like I said, I call myself a conservative, but I certainly hope that conservative pride doesn't take us to the fall. Because we'll never recover from it.

That's my 2¢. I realize that I probably didn't say one thing to get you to change your mind. Again, I meant none of the above in disrespect. I just profoundly disagree with you.
We survived Jimmy Carter and LBJ. This is America and we will survive this too. We really don't differ that much, We both understand that Obama is a disastor. We both agree that McCain won't be a good president. We really only disagree on how much at risk is that Texas could swing towards Obama and possibly give the rest of the nation to to him. I believe that Texas just isn't going to be that close. You are afraid it is. This will be settled in November. I believe that Texans will overwelmingly pick McCain, and that the rest of the country will vote overwhelmingly for Obama . I believe that my vote for Barr will help signal to the Republican party that I am tired of the swill they have offered me. You believe that it is to close in Texas to risk it. We will both know on the nite of November the 4th when the Texas returns come in. I have voted in 9 presidential elections. I have yet to vote for a Democrat. I won't do it this time by voting for McCain. Even McCain and Obama themselves believe that it is a given that Texas isn't in any danger of going Obama and they will spend their energy and money in states that are not so clear cut.
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The Annoyed Man
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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#12

Post by The Annoyed Man » Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:35 am

Thank you for accepting the sincerity of my respect for you. When discussing politics and religion, it is a very difficult thing to disagree while maintaining respect, and it can be easy to unintentionally offend. We will have to respectfully agree to disagree. Like I said, I understand your viewpoint, and while I'm not a Libertarian, as a conservative I share some parts of your political philosophy. I just don't think it is a wise strategy at this time, but like I said, we'll have to agree to disagree.

Tony Blankley has written a fairly hard-hitting opinion piece for Real Clear Politics called "The Birth of the Me-Too Conservative". There is a lot of truth in it:
With the rise to enduring power of President Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933, a new type of Republican emerged in reaction to FDR's attractive and overawing power: the me-too Republican. Until the election of President Reagan five decades later, these me-too Republicans supported, rather than opposed, Democratic Party policies but claimed they would administer them better. Of course, this led to a half-century of Democratic dominance of American government and politics.

FDR himself cruelly mocked this pathetic breed of spineless, protect-your-career-at-any-cost Republican politicians:

"Let me warn the nation against the smooth evasion which says: 'Of course we believe all these things. We believe in Social Security; we believe in work for the unemployed; we believe in saving homes. Cross our hearts and hope to die, we believe in all these things; but we do not like the way the present administration is doing them. Just turn them over to us. We will do all of them; we will do more of them; we will do them better; and best of all, the doing of them will not cost anybody anything.'"

Now, on the cusp of what some think will be a major Obama victory, we are beginning to see emerge what I will call "me-too conservatives" -- initially among conservative commentators (politicians to follow). I have in mind, among others: Peggy Noonan, David Brooks, Chris Buckley, David Frum and Kathleen Parker.
Now, the point he makes about so-called conservatives during FDR's presidency is spot on. I agree with it, and I realize that part of your point is that McCain is one of those kinds of Republicans. I get that, and, largely, I agree.

You have voted in 9 presidential elections. I have voted in 8. So our comparative experience is not that different. We've just come to very different conclusions about the long term impact of an Obama presidency. Here's my problem with all of this. You're comparing Obama to LBJ/Carter. But I think that LBJ/Carter were small potatoes compared to FDR. While we have in many ways reversed the sins of the LBJ/Carter presidencies, we are still living with FDR's "reforms" today - 75 years after the fact. I believe that Obama's impact on the future political landscape will be more like FDR's, perhaps even worse, than it will be like LBJ/Carter's; and I believe that it will take 50-100 years before we can dig ourselves out from under it, if it can be done at all. In other words, it is likely that the entire rest of my life will be lived under the impact of an Obama presidency. And just as we still live with the fallout from FDR today, I believe that it is likely that my son will live with the effects of an Obama presidency during most of his life. That is a prospect which I find it very difficult to accept, and it is that prospect that makes me willing to work for a McCain victory today, believing that it will be more attainable to recover from the effects of a "semi-conservative" like McCain, than a full on socialist like Obama.

FWIW, I've been kicking around the idea lately of changing my party affiliation from Republican to Independent. I might still vote Republican - if they can get their act together - but I don't want any political party to ever again feel like it can count on my vote. They are going to have to work for it from now on.
Give me Liberty, or I'll get up and get it myself.—Hookalakah Meshobbab
I don't carry because of the odds, I carry because of the stakes.—The Annoyed Boy


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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#13

Post by PWK » Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:06 am

In TX there is no party affiliation. No independent primary. You choose your party affiliation on primary day and if you want to vote you have to vote in the Dem or Repub primary. If you've been paying dues to the Rep. Party of TX or National Rep. party you could stop that but in TX you don't have to register with a party. The only thing voting in a primary gets you in TX, party wise, is you can only vote in the runoff of the primary you voted in. If you didn't vote in a primary then you can vote in either runoff if both exist. You can say your and independent, moderate, progressive, or feral voter but in the end you gotta vote Dem or Repub. in the primary.

More on TX going for McC: http://www.270towin.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Click on TX, scroll down a little, click on the more about TX and you'll see why 48/13/39 works.
For a little historical perspective consider the last governors race. Perry got 39% just the diehard Repub's voted for him as it will be for BO, just the diehard Dem's will vote for BO.


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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#14

Post by pedalman » Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:19 am

As much as I would like to vote my conscience and select Bob Barr on the ballot, I would have to go with McCain on this one. I still remember the fiasco that occurred when Ross Perot ran for office.

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Re: Electorial college strategy in 08 vote Barr

#15

Post by Purplehood » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:01 am

Obama is favored by ignorant. Onbce he is elected there will be a great awaking once the ignorant are shown what socialism really means. He likely won't get elected a second term. Most democrats don't.
You might want to crack open your Almanac on that one...

On the issue of "we survived Jimmy Carter and LBJ", I have a nasty but persistent feeling that BO is going to do everything in the UN's power to make us a socialist sub-entity of a world government.
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