Japanese Documentary: Govt knew A-bomb was coming, did not warn cities

[ELB]

Blogger EX-SKF is apparently a Japanese blogger with excellent written English whom I never heard of before Instapundit posted this link (part 1):
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2013/08/spec ... art-1.html

There is also this post (part 2):
http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2013/08/spec ... art-2.html

I know nothing else about the blogger except that he has a lot of interest and posts about Fukushima reactor. The blogger's posts are from 2013, about a Japanese documentary that aired in 2011. The two links above translate a Japanese documentary that says the WWII Japanese government knew that that a B-29 was enroute to Hiroshima to likely to drop an atomic bomb... but did not warn the the city. Two days later they knew another B-29, using the same call-sign (V675) was enroute, but did nothing to warn the locals then either.


Cliff's notes:

The Japanese knew the US was working on an atomic bomb, and had started their own program. They were not able to successfully refine uranium from uranium ore, and cancelled their program in June 1945, just before the US detonated its first bomb at Trinity. Even within the confines of the government they were not able to admit the Japanese could not do something that the Americans could, so out loud they said refining uranium was impossible. The Japanese were aware of the Trinity test, but since "officially" they had concluded that it was impossible to extract usable uranium from ore, therefore the US must not be able to build a bomb either, and so "officially" the Trinity test was just a very large conventional bomb. No one dared admit out loud that the US might have an atomic weapon.

Japanese intelligence had also determined that a special B-29 unit had recently started operation on Tinian. In general US radio traffic was encrypted, but for reasons unknown to me, the lead element of a message was the unencrypted call-sign. The Japanese knew B-29s operated in large formation (often 300 planes for a single raid), and that call signs fell into the V400, V400, V700 groups for planes from the North Marianas. When call signs in the V600 group started being used, they were able to figure out there were only about 12 or 14 aircraft in this group, based on Tinian, so concluded those airplanes had a special mission, that involved a lot of precision bombing practice on islands near Tinian. This information was provided to the top elements of the government, the same people who knew of their own atomic program and the efforts of the Americans.

When the Enola Gay executed its mission the Japanese intel identified it, and a weather reconnaissance B-29 an hour ahead of Enola Gay, five hours before the Enola Gat was over Hiroshima. They noted it transmitted a message to Washington DC. They notified their top headquarters that a weather recon B-29 followed by a "special task" bomber was enroute, but the headquarters did nothing to warn Hiroshima. The city had air raid shelters that would have protected at least part of the population (a 14 year old girl who was in a shelter only 700m from ground zero survived without injury and was interviewed for the documentary). Also there were squadrons of a special fighter plane that could fly high enough to intercept B-29s, but nobody that could take action was alerted. The locals had alerted on the WX recon plane, but realizing it was a recon and not knowing it was followed by another bomber, they stood down.

When Bock's Car was launched, Japanese Intel again identified it as a special task bomber from Tinian hours before its arrival --- it was even using the same call sign, V675. Again they notified up the chain, and no one acted on the intelligence, despite the bombing of Hiroshima. Bock's Car went to Kokura City first, but it was obscured by weather, so it went to its alternate target, Nagasaki. Again the local squadron of fighters dedicated to attacking B-29s was not alerted, and Bock's Car completed its mission without interference.

There is much more at the link, well worth reading.

[C-dub]

This all sounds similar to the theory that FDR knew Pearl was going to be attacked. The issue I have with that similarity is that if FDR knew the reason is obvious. We needed to be in that war and there was no way that was going to happen voluntarily.

I can’t think of a similar or valid reason the Japanese government would not warn their people.

[ELB]

...
I can’t think of a similar or valid reason the Japanese government would not warn their people.

Did you read the posts at the link?

I think there is a case to be made that the government was so bureaucratically inept and so overwhelmed by (losing) the war that they didn't quite put 2 and 2 together. But unless NHK is completely lying it is apparent that the Japanese knew the US had an atomic weapon, and that there were B-29s at Tinian that were segregated and not being used for regular bombing missions. In this case, they failed to put 2+2 together twice.

It would not be the only time that government leaders had plain evidence of a threat to their people and purposely failed to act on it because that would collide with their own beliefs and priorities.

[C-dub]

...
I can’t think of a similar or valid reason the Japanese government would not warn their people.

Did you read the posts at the link?

I think there is a case to be made that the government was so bureaucratically inept and so overwhelmed by (losing) the war that they didn't quite put 2 and 2 together. But unless NHK is completely lying it is apparent that the Japanese knew the US had an atomic weapon, and that there were B-29s at Tinian that were segregated and not being used for regular bombing missions. In this case, they failed to put 2+2 together twice.

It would not be the only time that government leaders had plain evidence of a threat to their people and purposely failed to act on it because that would collide with their own beliefs and priorities.

I did.

It wasn't that they were so inept or overwhelmed, they didn't want to admit that someone else could do what they couldn't so they said it was impossible. Did you read it?

Just kidding.

[ELB]

I lean more towards shear denial of reality, but I made to the case for ineptness as a slightly less damning possibility.

[oljames3]

I have not read the linked articles and do not intend to. Nagasaki was not the Army's first choice as a target. That decision was made in flight due to cloud cover over the primary target.

As Veteran's Day 2019 approaches, the US Army remains the only entity having used atomic weapons in war.

[chasfm11]

I have not read the linked articles and do not intend to. Nagasaki was not the Army's first choice as a target. That decision was made in flight due to cloud cover over the primary target.

As Veteran's Day 2019 approaches, the US Army remains the only entity having used atomic weapons in war.

Estimates of casualties in Nagasaki are around 40,000. While some estimates have been inflated beyond that level for Dresden,Germany, it appears that an accurate count was closer to 25,000. My point is that it wasn't just the atomic weapon that inflicted massive civilian deaths. One might argue that the atomic bomb is more efficient but I'm not sure that really matters.

[Paladin]

Interesting stuff.

One other piece of WW2 history that hasn't received a lot of attention:

Deadly WWII U.S. firebombing raids on Japanese cities largely ignored

From January 1944 until August 1945, the U.S. dropped 157,000 tons of bombs on Japanese cities, according to the U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey. It estimated that 333,000 people were killed, including the 80,000 killed in the Aug. 6 Hiroshima atomic bomb attack and 40,000 in Nagasaki three days later. Other estimates are significantly higher. Fifteen million of the 72 million Japanese were left homeless.

The bombing campaign set a military precedent for targeting civilian areas that persisted into the Korean and Vietnam wars and beyond. But the non-atomic attacks have been largely overlooked.

[equin]

Interesting stuff.

[Redneck_Buddha]

Some of the destruction wrought on German cities was pretty horrific, as well. Entire cities like Dresden effectively wiped out.