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This thread will garner a lot of attention.

The following is just my opinions, IANAL, and since, as you said all of these things are hypothetical, namely, because as far as I know, there have been no cases, where any of the scenarios, have occurred

In my opinion, anytime someone knowingly carries past, a legally posted 30.06 sign, they have created, a situation, that even if there are no major consequences, they start out on the wrong side of the law, no matter their personal, rationalizations. That being said, if something should happen, where that person was forced to use their gun, in a self defense, or defense of a third person, scenario, there is the hurdle, to clear, as to why they had the gun in that location. As I said, I am not a lawyer, and I don't know whether, the property, owner, or the State, would actually be the complainant, in a trespass case against the LTC holder. If it is the property owner, they can decline to press charges. However, if it is the State, or if a left leaning, prosecutor, decided to go after the LTC holder, it could turn into really bad time, both legally, and financially. Not to mention, the type of press coverage, something like that would generate. And then, since, the LTC holder, was in violation, at the time of the shooting, even if it is a clear case, of justified, self defense, the BG, and/or his family, would be able to file lawsuits, that the LTC holder would not be protected against.
While no one, likes the thought, of being in a situation, where they are disarmed, everyone has to weigh the risk/reward, of disobeying the law. JMHO