Re: Record vote for House Speaker?
Posted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:31 pm
Thanks Charles.Charles L. Cotton wrote:...... But this is a new day and we have Rep. Turner to thank.
Chas.
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Thanks Charles.Charles L. Cotton wrote:...... But this is a new day and we have Rep. Turner to thank.
Chas.
jimlongley wrote:With all of everything else, I am gratified to see that my representative voted the way I wished.
Roughly 4.5 million voted in the last gubernatorial election. They represented approximately 25% of the voting age public. 850,000 CHLs represents 18.9% of the voting public IF all CHL holders voted. So "we" have a powerful voice if "we" chose to use it.The Annoyed Man wrote:It's roughly 850,000 CHLs out of 26.45 million million souls.....or roughly 3.2% of the population. 2 out of 18 is higher than average at 11.11%.baseballguy2001 wrote:Hey Mojo --
I agree on both points. It IS up to us to educate, advocate, but I'm telling you -- It's not a lost cause, but it's a very steep climb. Of my circle of friends, me and one other have our CHLs. Nobody else does. We're talking about an 18-2 ratio here. I don't know the numbers of CHLs v regular voters, but I'm willing to bet it's hundreds of thousands v millions
I certainly didn't take your points as a personal attack, I hope you didn't think I attacked you either.
Charles L. Cotton wrote:Confession time. I had to delete two of my own posts, then give myself some cooling off time before posting this. Several people, me included, need to take a deep breath, put emotion aside, and take a rational look at the impact of the first contested race for Speaker of the House in 40 years. Turner lost, but he did a great service for all Texans, other than ultra liberals.
Straus has helped numerous pro-gun bills pass and he has killed some pro-gun bills either in committee or the Calendars Committee. He has promoted far more bills than he has killed, though he has killed some that I consider critical.
For the first time in 40 years, we have a record vote for Speaker of the House. Obviously some people don't appreciate the importance of this vote and how it will impact this legislative session and the 2016 elections. More voters were aware of the Speaker's race this year than ever before, primarily because there was a contested race. Turner has broken the ice and we can expect to see many contested races for Speaker. That puts more pressure on the Speaker to perform up to public expectations.
Conservatives have won several seats in the Senate as well as the Lt. Governor's chair. The news media is running reports that the House till keep a lid on Lt. Gov. Patrick and the more conservative Senate. If conservative bills die in the House, you can bet that the 2016 campaigns will be broadcasting the results of the Speaker's race voting like it was a Super Bowl.
Some have argued that the public doesn't know or care about the Speaker of the House, but that ignores news reports. It also ignores how political campaigns are run. I personally don't think Straus will run in 2016, but I could be wrong. I am convinced that the Republicans who voted for him will demand that their support be rewarded and that their vote not become a political disaster. This is possible only because there was a record vote. If Straus does want to run again in 2016, he'll need those same Republicans to support him and to do that, they must be reelected. Straus already lost some of his closest Lieutenants in the primaries; he can't afford to lose more. If Straus doesn't want to run for the House in 2016, he'll run for something else. He can't afford to lose Republican support for any race he enters, nor can he alienate Texas conservatives.
I would like to have seen someone other than Straus and candidly, someone other than Turner. We need someone with clout, experience and credibility and Turner had only one of those traits. It wasn't to be, just as every experienced politico knew. But this is a new day and we have Rep. Turner to thank.
Chas.
A lot of eyes will be watching what happens to those 19 Representatives, and if anything negative happens to them, other people will be held accountable. I suspect you'll see something similar happen in the Texas House that happened in the US House. Boehner's knee-jerk reaction was to punish his opponents, but many conservatives who voted for him made it clear that was a bad idea. Suddenly Boehner is preaching anti-immigration messages and the punishment has stopped. I suspect Strauss now realizes he risks losing a lot of support if he does anything radical to punish the 19. The public is waking up, and they are not going away. Politicians are suddenly being deluged with phone calls, faxes and letters, and they can't escape. Most of them realize that if they don't follow through on what they ran on they will be primaried in 2 years and a lot of very loud opponents will be banging on doors trying to get them thrown out.Blindref757 wrote:These people couldn't realistically vote for Turner...the "Turner 19" will be the last people placed on the Dog Catcher committee. Tough to go back and tell your constituents in 7 months that you fought hard for them against the SPCA in Austin as your number one fight. Sometimes the whole "elections matter" mantra is the biggest hoax!
Do we have any idea when that will take place?mojo84 wrote:Much will be revealed with his committee chair appointments.
Your numbers are better than mine for determining political influence, and I'd bet that CHL holders vote in higher percentages than the general population too. But my answer wasn't so much about political influence as to answer the question from baseballguy2001 about the significance of a ratio of 2 CHLs out of 18 people.baldeagle wrote:Roughly 4.5 million voted in the last gubernatorial election. They represented approximately 25% of the voting age public. 850,000 CHLs represents 18.9% of the voting public IF all CHL holders voted. So "we" have a powerful voice if "we" chose to use it.The Annoyed Man wrote:It's roughly 850,000 CHLs out of 26.45 million million souls.....or roughly 3.2% of the population. 2 out of 18 is higher than average at 11.11%.baseballguy2001 wrote:Hey Mojo --
I agree on both points. It IS up to us to educate, advocate, but I'm telling you -- It's not a lost cause, but it's a very steep climb. Of my circle of friends, me and one other have our CHLs. Nobody else does. We're talking about an 18-2 ratio here. I don't know the numbers of CHLs v regular voters, but I'm willing to bet it's hundreds of thousands v millions
I certainly didn't take your points as a personal attack, I hope you didn't think I attacked you either.
joe817 wrote:Do we have any idea when that will take place?mojo84 wrote:Much will be revealed with his committee chair appointments.
Thank you for the reminder. I am disappointed that Turner didn't win, but I also understood going into this that a Turner win was a pretty long shot. I am not as pessimistic as some are about Strauss retaliating against either Turner or his supporters. The reason is that the publicity surrounding this record vote elevates the issue into the public consciousness. I posted before that I was afraid that some people have short memories and would forget the importance of this vote. But, I ALSO posted that as long as someone was around to remind The People of it come 2016, then any perfidy in the interim from Strauss against any of the "Turner 19" or Turner himself, would be beaten like a big bass drum during the campaign, and Strauss would pay heavily as a result. Unlike some, I don't think Strauss is stupid. You don't get to be Speaker for two terms, let alone three terms, by being a mental defective. No..... what Strauss is is a politician, and his great sin is that of putting his political game-playing ahead of the conservative ideals he claims to uphold, and in so doing, he has angered a lot of voters. If he punishes anybody for this record vote, the anger won't go away; it will double and triple, and he'll be finished, at least in the legislature.Charles L. Cotton wrote:Confession time......
Whoever wrote that was high on drugs.....especially the last part that I highlighted. Republicans (read that as "conservatives"*) gained seats in the Texas house, did they not? In this session, House republicans outnumber democrats 97-51, with 2 seats still vacant. In 2013, the ratio was 95 republicans to 55 democrats. In other words, with 2 seats still unfilled, democrats went down by 4 seats, and republicans went up by 2 seats. The worst case scenario is that, EVEN IF democrats end up filling the two vacant seats, republicans will still have a 97-53 lead. Alternatively, it could be 98-52, or 99-51.baseballguy2001 wrote:"The great changing of the guard is taking place in Texas, and the trains of transformation are rolling," "The question is: Are you on board?" -- San Antonio Republican Joe Straus
It's uncertain whether this alienated Turner from his supporters. Most of them are from North Texas — a small but vocal minority inside the Republican Party who were unsuccessful in pushing a conservative state further to the right.
That's from a news report from my local TV station.
The evidence already suggests that Straus IS swayed by the anti-gun establishment hence his democratic support.Keith B wrote:While that voting record looks favorable, that is not total proof that he can't be swayed by an anti-gun constituancy. I stand by my statement.The Annoyed Man wrote:Respectfully, yes we do know: https://votesmart.org/candidate/key-vot ... LVqwaOCOrVKeith B wrote:As Charles stated earlier we don't know for sure how Turner would be on gun legislation.