TexasCHLforum.com

C-dub wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:45 pm



IBTL

Ya I know. The most recent thread I could find was 2016, but I'm sure this has been discussed to death here and on other forums.

That fact of the matter is if a vote were held tomorrow, I'm pretty sure most would vote "Yes" over "No". That's a pretty big deal. It is also pretty disgusting how the vote has been prevented time and again through typical politics.

Jusme wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:56 pm PTR,
It it obvious that you have spent a lot of time, and effort to not only research, your information, but to put your conclusions, into a readable form.
While the argument, for secession, is compelling, the fact remains, continuing,to stay a part of the USA, is, and would be, better, for Texas. The transition, from State, to independent, country, requires, a huge investment, in resources, that would quickly deplete, the assumed, surplus, you for see, in your thesis.
Not to mention, the fact, that trade with other countries, icluding, the US, is not a foregone conclusion.
One often overlooked feature, of the secession, or "Texit" is what happens to the numerous, military bases, which bring in untold dollars, in military salaries alone? Also, what incentives would be offered, to corporations, and their employees, to suddenly become " foreign" to the US?

Lastly, while your opinion, is well thought out, and may have validity, to postulate, beforehand, that if the founder, or moderators, decide to delete the thread, is akin, to the actions, of Facebook, or Twitter, to me, is very insulting. This is one of the best places, on the internet, to express opinions, and as long as they don't personally attack someone's, race, religion, or other classification, have been allowed to stay. You are fully entitled to your position, and others are just as entitled to disagree with it, so, and this is just my opinion, don't denigrate the site, or it's moderators, to try to bully them, into accepting it. JMHo

Firstly, I address the number and economic influence of US Federal workers above. They are the smallest segment of the workforce in Texas. Last I saw, they account for about 1.5% of Texas workers. Also, If Texas were to keep taxation at exactly the same levels, it would be possible to replace federal workers for Texas workers on a 1:1 ratio. Also, Assuming a peaceful Texit occurs, the rollout of removing all (or some) of the US military installations could take well over a decade. In the event of a peaceful Texit, the US would not want to compromise its own security for the same of pulling the bases out when the US regularly has bases on foreign soil and has typically leased the land for the base and peacefully coexisted. We are currently doing this with Germany, South Korea, Japan, Honduras, The Philippines, Canad (I'm pretty sure), Egypt, and others. And those are only the ones I can remember off the top of my head. It is completely normal for the US to have bases on foriegn soil. As such, it isn't like they would just pack up and move overnight.

Secondly, my statements regarding Charles and the forum were not intended to be negative. They are, however, in response to direct statements by Charles and others on the older threads regarding Texit. As such, I wanting to point out that comparison as, the way I see it, if this thread is removed then we are no better than facebook when it comes to suppressing content as long as it remains appropriate.

while it all sounds good on paper you have to think about import/exporting, aid that the govt has been giving businesses/people like social security and medicare/medicaid (not sure how those work tbh) food stamps housing etc etc... and you have to think about TX from a military stand point. do we really have enough fire power to stand against the US if trump decided to just be like "They wanna leave? blow em up!" I'm sure tons of people would love the idea of leaving the US but in reality the way things are now, it just wouldn't work... Texas could probably support itself just from the oil we're sitting on but there are a TON of differnt things we (as a state) would have to consider before making a rash decision l ike that. personally, i would love if Texas was independent. Do I think it would be wise to attempt it. No.

I love the idea, but I don't think it's realistic right now for a whole lot of reasons.

PTR,

You put a great deal of thought and care into articulating your viewpoint. I agree with some of your points, but not all. Most importantly, while you make a good argument for Texit, I firmly believe that establishing Texas as an independent country is much more complex than I think people appreciate.

The replacement of the services provided by the Federal government would not be a simple task. Take something like the postal service. While many people pay bills electronically, many people that live paycheck to paycheck still pay bills by mail because they don't have a banking relationship with a financial institution. Many people depend on the postal service and check cashing services. In addition, replacing the Medicare would be extremely hard. While Obamacare was a disaster for the general population, many people over 65 depend on Medicare. That replacement cost alone would be extremely difficult for senior citizens with health problems to afford if they weren't able to work because of their health. Could Texas absorb the cost of providing a Medicare replacement? I have my doubts given the magnitude of the costs. Finally, there are the numerous details that would need to be ironed out to establish trade, currency, defense, citizenship, diplomacy, credit, etc. if Texas became independent.

In simple terms, the idea of being an independent country is appealing, but the devil is in the details. Also, with Texas' major cities being Liberal Democrat enclaves, I wonder if many people in Texas would really back a Texit. I know, a referendum would answer that question. But the referendum would not present all of the details.

One lesson I took away from the Brexit vote, is that many people voted for the concept of Brexit, but that many people did not appreciate the consequences of Brexit. My firm has an office in London. Many people in that office are from other countries and may have to leave Great Britain because of Brexit. Many people from Great Britain that work in other parts of the EU will have to relocate back to Great Britain. The EU and Great Britain have not resolved the trade issues.

I believe that if the people that voted for Brexit were presented with all of the details, consequences, changes, etc. that goes along with Brexit, the results of the referendum would have been much different.

Those are just my thoughts.

PriestTheRunner wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:01 pm Now, I know Charles may ban me for this or delete this thread, but if he chooses to do so (and that would be his right), but that would make this forum no better than the likes of Facebook, Twitter, Google and others who are silencing public (appropriate) speech in a public venue.

This crap almost got you banned sport. You live to push the envelope, but stooping to this insult gets you your last warning.

Chas.

PriestTheRunner wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:01 pm Now, I know Charles may ban me for this or delete this thread, but if he chooses to do so (and that would be his right), but that would make this forum no better than the likes of Facebook, Twitter, Google and others who are silencing public (appropriate) speech in a public venue. I certainly wouldn't consider this thread as yelling "fire" in a crowded theater, and it certainly doesn't stoop to the revolting levels of some speech that has been deemed 'protected'. I believe we need to have a discussion on Texit and we need to have it now, despite what those 'on the other side' may see or think when they watch this forum. I don't want us to stoop as low as the left. Dozens on here have decried such actions from facebook, it would be a shame if we repeated them. Though, if Charles wants to remove this from texaschlforum, it would be his right.

I quit reading at this paragraph. Attacking our host isn’t cool. Your lengthy essay could have stood on its own without the above paragraph throwing down a gauntlet daring a response from the site owner.

There's only one state I'd like to see secede and it ain't Texas.

cirus wrote: ↑Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:57 am There's only one state I'd like to see secede and it ain't Texas.

Texas sends about 265 Billion dollars annually to the Federal government, but only gets back about 162 Billion. In other words, if ALL Texas dollars were kept in Texas, we would have a 100-120 Billion Dollar surplus to lower Texas taxes and keep in Texan’s pockets.

Outside of the other valid reasons, the above statement is more than enough to kill the deal.




A quick tip on self preservation: Don't insult and then taunt Charles. Doing so will usually only give you something to complain about on another forum.

Grundy1133 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:11 pm while it all sounds good on paper you have to think about (1) import/exporting, (2)aid that the govt has been giving businesses/people like social security and medicare/medicaid (not sure how those work tbh) food stamps housing etc etc... and you have to think about TX from a (3)military stand point. do we really have enough fire power to stand against the US if trump decided to just be like "They wanna leave? blow em up!" I'm sure tons of people would love the idea of leaving the US but in reality the way things are now, it just wouldn't work... Texas could probably support itself just from the oil we're sitting on but there are a TON of differnt things we (as a state) would have to consider before making a rash decision l ike that. personally, i would love if Texas was independent. Do I think it would be wise to attempt it. No.

1- Importing and exporting is a valid point, but we already have Texans doing those federal jobs. Yes, in the process of a Texit we would have to work out trade deals (the exact same thing the UK is doing right now) but the good news for us is that if we wanted, we just just adopt the World Trade Organizations tarriff tables and be done with it. We would be a net exporter overnight overall, and an extremely high net exporter of oil. Oil access is actually one of the driving factors in keeping a Texit peaceful.

2- Texas already runs all of the welfare programs. Food Stamps, TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (aka Welfare)), Medicare and Medicaid, Temporary Housing, etc. are ALL currently administered by Texas using predominantly Texas dollars. I believe those programs have a 50/50 split Federal to State dollars (but I would have to check). And since we send more to DC than we get back (by 60% or so), then it would be relatively easy for Texas to foot the bill if we kept Taxes the same.

3- Maybe, maybe not. The exact determination of a shooting war and civil war would be pretty much impossible to predict. It would be a nightmare though. But the thought of forcing Texas to stay in the event of a proper and democratic vote to leave is a political non-starter for the reasons listed above.

OneGun wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:33 pm The replacement of the services provided by the Federal government would not be a simple task. Take something like the postal service. While many people pay bills electronically, many people that live paycheck to paycheck still pay bills by mail because they don't have a banking relationship with a financial institution. Many people depend on the postal service and check cashing services. In addition, replacing the Medicare would be extremely hard. While Obamacare was a disaster for the general population, many people over 65 depend on Medicare. That replacement cost alone would be extremely difficult for senior citizens with health problems to afford if they weren't able to work because of their health. Could Texas absorb the cost of providing a Medicare replacement? I have my doubts given the magnitude of the costs. Finally, there are the numerous details that would need to be ironed out to establish trade, currency, defense, citizenship, diplomacy, credit, etc. if Texas became independent.

You are very right that there would be a wide array of details that would need to be ironed out. Thats why Texit would be a years-long process.

Regarding Medicare, Texas already administers the program in Texas. We are already running it. We already have documentation on program costs and since Texas is a 40% donor state (giving more than receiving) we have the money in hand at the current levels of taxation.

Now, considering how much sand is in the gears of the current medicare / medicaid system, a Texas-only system with Texas only dollars presents an opportunity to clean out the system and reduce spending in wasted areas (and possibly improve the system in other areas). I'm extremely certain that the federal dollars come with a price tag of tens of thousands of regulations regarding allotments, approved use, required services, etc. etc. that may or may not represent Texas' interests. Texit is an opportunity to remove the vast majority of that.

OneGun wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:33 pm In simple terms, the idea of being an independent country is appealing, but the devil is in the details. Also, with Texas' major cities being Liberal Democrat enclaves, I wonder if many people in Texas would really back a Texit. I know, a referendum would answer that question. But the referendum would not present all of the details.

That is also a good point, but we wouldn't ever know unless we had a vote on it. The most recent numbers have a pro-Texit majority of 54% of Republicans, 50% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. Considering the current distribution in Texas: (52.2% R, 43.2% D and 4.6% I based on 2016 Pres), that puts the vote at 46% Leave and 54% Stay. Yes, that vote is still a 'stay' vote, but considering this is based on 2016 numbers and the Democrats pro-leave side has arguably gained ground, it isn't a stretch to say that a vote needs to be had.

Also, all of the above is based on the presidential race. Independence votes typically garner 80%+ on voting as opposed to the last presidential race numbers of around 58%. It is difficult to tell how that would swing the numbers.

OneGun wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:33 pm One lesson I took away from the Brexit vote, is that many people voted for the concept of Brexit, but that many people did not appreciate the consequences of Brexit. My firm has an office in London. Many people in that office are from other countries and may have to leave Great Britain because of Brexit. Many people from Great Britain that work in other parts of the EU will have to relocate back to Great Britain. The EU and Great Britain have not resolved the trade issues.

Yes, the citizenship and visa issues would need to be worked out. It seems that visas have been part of the larger economic and trade talks over there, which is considerably slower. However, if we were to examine the pitfalls of Brexit, the biggest ones would likely be avoided, or at least they know whats coming.

OneGun wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:33 pm I believe that if the people that voted for Brexit were presented with all of the details, consequences, changes, etc. that goes along with Brexit, the results of the referendum would have been much different.

Those are just my thoughts.

|I'm not sure that they weren't. All of the details and consequences involved is necessary in untangling the mess that being in the federation caused. Divorces are messy. But the fact that it would be messy is more of a point that it needs to happen than not. The mess is being caused by the extreme amounts of overreach currently exhibited by the Federal government. It shouldn't be messy because they are not supposed to be involved in nearly anything they are currently doing. But considering both parties have long since given up restraint in expanding federal influence and power, it'll only get more tangled from here.

Politically speaking, if Tx is gone (and the electoral college shrinks) the dems likely control the US from that point forward. So I can't see any Rep. support outside the state. Although that might get the rest of the dems on board with the idea

Eventually for Tx, it would be like being stuck in between Mexico and Venezuela!

Jusme wrote: ↑Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:56 pm PTR,

Lastly, while your opinion, is well thought out, and may have validity, to postulate, beforehand, that if the founder, or moderators, decide to delete the thread, is akin, to the actions, of Facebook, or Twitter, to me, is very insulting. This is one of the best places, on the internet, to express opinions, and as long as they don't personally attack someone's, race, religion, or other classification, have been allowed to stay. You are fully entitled to your position, and others are just as entitled to disagree with it, so, and this is just my opinion, don't denigrate the site, or it's moderators, to try to bully them, into accepting it. JMHo