Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

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philip964
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

#661

Post by philip964 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:45 am

philip964 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:07 pm
philip964 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:44 am
philip964 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:08 am
philip964 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:11 pm
philip964 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:04 pm
philip964 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:47 am
philip964 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:23 am
philip964 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:53 pm
philip964 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am
March 13, 2020- 137,000 world, 5000 dead, 1700 in the US. Almost 15,000 in Italy. China is still holding near 80,000

March 16, 2020- 169,387 world, 6513 dead, 3774 in US. 24,745 in Italy with 1809 deaths. China is still holding near 80,000. Texas has 77 Houston at 30

March 17, 2020- 196,639 world. 7893 dead. 5894 in US. 32,506 in Italy with 2503 deaths. Houston at 36.

March 18, 2020- 204,277 world. 8,246 dead. 6519 in US. 31,506 in Italy with 2503 deaths. 81,102 in China. Texas has 132 Houston at 39
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
March 19, 2020- 227,743 world. 9,318 dead. 9415 US. 35,713 Italy with 2978 deaths. 81,155 in China. Texas has 223 Houston at 62.
March 20.2020- 246,000 world. 10,040 dead. 14,250 infected US, 205 dead. 41,035 Italy, 3405 dead. 81,250 China. Texas has 307 Houston at 77.
March 21, 2020- 297,090 world. 12,755 dead. 22,177 infected US, 340 dead. 53,578 Italy ,4825 dead. 81,304 China Texas has 434 Houston at 117.
March 22, 2020- 318,662 world, 13,672 dead. 27,004 infected US,
347 dead. 53,578 Italy, 4,825 dead. 81,397 China. Texas has 557 with 5 deaths. Houston at 154.
March 23, 2020- 354,677 cases worldwide with 15430 dead. 35,345 infected US, 473 dead. 59,138 Italy with 5,476 dead. 81,496 China. Texas has 674 with 8 deaths. Houston 166 with 2 deaths.
March 24, 2020 am- 396,249 cases worldwide with 17,252 dead. 46,805 infected US, 593 dead. 63,927 Italy with 6,077 dead. 81,591 China (is anyone believing this). Texas has 807 with 9 deaths. Houston 199 with 2 Deaths.
March 25, 2020 pm- 468,523 cases worldwide with 21,192 dead. 66,132 infected US, 947 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,667 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,289 with 16 deaths. Houston 371 with 2 deaths.
March 26, 2020 am. 492,603 cases worldwide with 22,184 dead. 69.210 infected US, 1,046 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,782 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 372 with 2 deaths. Obviously some of these numbers have not been updated from last night.


I am surprised that all health care workers were not ordered to wear protective clothing and masks earlier, for any patient not just ones who are showing symptoms. The more people you come in contact with the higher your odds of getting the virus.

The earlier swine flu H 1 N 1 virus in 2009, is not a memory I have. It killed like 16,000 people in the US. I remember nothing about it. It happened during the financial crisis. Did the media just play it down. Was the economy so fragile no one wanted to talk about it. I have heard the word H 1 N 1 before, so it must have had some press coverage. I believe this virus is more dangerous and if we did nothing like with H 1 N 1, the death toll would be much higher. We will really have to see what happens in countries without real heathcare systems to see if it is really as dangerous as we think it is.


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#662

Post by philip964 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:33 am

https://news.yahoo.com/us-virus-deaths- ... 24116.html

Study shows despite confinement deaths will reach 80,000 in the US.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#663

Post by Charles L. Cotton » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:22 pm

It's not possible to estimate the total number of deaths because it's impossible to get an accurate mortality rate. The current mortality rates published are grossly inaccurate because the ratio is being calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. There are multiple articles by reputable doctors and medical institutions pointing out this fact. I've linked just one below.

To get an accurate mortality rate, you must compare the number of deaths to the total number of cases, i.e. both reported and unreported cases. That's not possible when people suffer minor symptoms and never get tested, or they get medical treatment, recover, and are never tested.

The bottom line is COVID-19 is a major problem, but probably not nearly as deadly as some are predicting.

Chas.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford ... PhRkaTv8Tc


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#664

Post by srothstein » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:31 pm

I found this article on why we should not be trying to flatten the curve. Interesting read.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening ... rS7gYJ6fPE
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#665

Post by Rafe » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:59 pm

US unemployment claims reach record 3.28M this week amid coronavirus crisis
By comparison, the highest number before this was 695,000 claims in one week in 1982.
And I'm afraid this is just the start. Small and midsize companies were trying to hold on last week, and they'll keep trying to hold on. But they can't survive the cash-flow faucet to be cut off the way stay-at-home orders are forcing. They don't have the cash reserves or lines of credit that larger companies have. Another week left in March, and I think the month's final unemployment numbers are going to continue to be historic. The whole fragile chain of end-to-end commerce has to kick back in to action to help stem layoffs.

Come November, I wonder how many voters classified as independent will remember that the dems tried hard to sideline the financial rescue package and steer huge amounts of the funding into things like a $1 billion “cash for clunkers” airplane program where the Transportation Department buys fuel-inefficient planes from airlines in exchange for agreeing to buy new ones, $10,000 blanket student loan loan forgiveness, automatic extension of all visas and work authorizations expiring within the next year for an amount of time equal to their prior visa, permanent expansion of Obamacare entitlement, $1 billion for the return of the notorious "Obamaphone" program. And dozens more things that had little or nothing to do with the current crisis. NRCC's Michael McAdams described it as: "People are dying and all Nancy Pelosi and Democrats can focus on is ripping off the American taxpayer to help pay for their liberal wish list of government handouts."

The image of Nero playing a fiddle (probably a lute) while watching Rome burn comes to mind. :mad5


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#666

Post by imkopaka » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm

srothstein wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:31 pm
I found this article on why we should not be trying to flatten the curve. Interesting read.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening ... rS7gYJ6fPE
Good article. I feel the same way.
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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#667

Post by strogg » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm

imkopaka wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
srothstein wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:31 pm
I found this article on why we should not be trying to flatten the curve. Interesting read.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening ... rS7gYJ6fPE
Good article. I feel the same way.
Likewise. It's an incredibly unpopular opinion, but I'm willing to admit that sentiment.


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#668

Post by Grayling813 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:22 pm
It's not possible to estimate the total number of deaths because it's impossible to get an accurate mortality rate. The current mortality rates published are grossly inaccurate because the ratio is being calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. There are multiple articles by reputable doctors and medical institutions pointing out this fact. I've linked just one below.

To get an accurate mortality rate, you must compare the number of deaths to the total number of cases, i.e. both reported and unreported cases. That's not possible when people suffer minor symptoms and never get tested, or they get medical treatment, recover, and are never tested.

The bottom line is COVID-19 is a major problem, but probably not nearly as deadly as some are predicting.

Chas.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford ... PhRkaTv8Tc
:iagree: Other places I’ve read say that “recovered” cases have to be calculated in order to get true mortality rate. So far all we really know is the conclusions/opinions doctors and scientists have about what “might” happen.
Meanwhile the global economy is tanking....to whose benefit?

Approximate Deaths in the US today, every day.
1643 - Heart Disease
958 - Cancer
1500 babies will be killed in their mother’s womb.

Corona virus year to date - 994
“Is there nothing to sing about to-day? Then borrow a song from tomorrow; sing of what is yet to be. Is this world dreary? Then think of the next.” - Charles Spurgeon


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#669

Post by Deitz83 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:12 pm

My company just implemented having your tempature taken before entering the facility each moring. This is the same procedure we implemented in China back in Feb. If you have a temp, go home for 14 days.

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#670

Post by 03Lightningrocks » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:38 pm

Charles L. Cotton wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:22 pm
It's not possible to estimate the total number of deaths because it's impossible to get an accurate mortality rate. The current mortality rates published are grossly inaccurate because the ratio is being calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases. There are multiple articles by reputable doctors and medical institutions pointing out this fact. I've linked just one below.

To get an accurate mortality rate, you must compare the number of deaths to the total number of cases, i.e. both reported and unreported cases. That's not possible when people suffer minor symptoms and never get tested, or they get medical treatment, recover, and are never tested.

The bottom line is COVID-19 is a major problem, but probably not nearly as deadly as some are predicting.

Chas.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/stanford ... PhRkaTv8Tc
:iagree: :iagree: :iagree:

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#671

Post by 03Lightningrocks » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:48 pm

I was at a customers home this morning that ask me to put on rubber golves and a mask to come inside. My first thought was that they were sick in that house. Yeah, sometimes I am naive. He was worried about me. I told him I could just stay outside since most of the work was on their outdoor unit. He has a kid with some health issues and he said they have not left the house in 4 weeks.

So I go and tell him I am in the school of thought that this thing is blown out of proportion. He kind of flips out. LOL... well he has a brother who is a Dr in Chicago and his brother tells him it is FAR WORSE than we are being told. he had all kinds of nightmare stories of Chicago cornhole virus.His brother told him they are even talking of not trying to save people who are at deaths door. Pretty crazy to hear his whole aspect of this thing. It did make me think a bit.


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#672

Post by Rob72 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm

srothstein wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:31 pm
I found this article on why we should not be trying to flatten the curve. Interesting read.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening ... rS7gYJ6fPE
Silo-thinking. Quarantine buys time to develop treatments/vaccines, to localize hotspots so that resources may be allocated rather than having the same problem everywhere. I'm a research nurse, actively working. It helps.


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#673

Post by Ruark » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:02 pm

One thing I don't see anybody looking at is our focus on fatalities. Just because a case isn't fatal doesn't mean everything's peachy. You have hospitals running out of ventilators and beds, so many people are in ICU from CV19 - including an increasing number of younger patients. For example, New York has about 53,000 hospital beds, and current statistical metrics show that over 170,000 will need hospitalization. There's a lot more to this picture than just "fatality rate."
-Ruark


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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19)( SARS-CoV-2) from China: Its going to be bad.

#674

Post by srothstein » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:16 pm

Rob72 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
srothstein wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:31 pm
I found this article on why we should not be trying to flatten the curve. Interesting read.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening ... rS7gYJ6fPE
Silo-thinking. Quarantine buys time to develop treatments/vaccines, to localize hotspots so that resources may be allocated rather than having the same problem everywhere. I'm a research nurse, actively working. It helps.
From the medical side, it may help. As the article points out, that is not the only think to consider though. Do we care how long we stay quarantined or do we want to get back to life? If we are not going to stay quarantined for two years (best estimate for a vaccine and to deploy it to everyone), then do we want to flatten the curve or try to get it done with now. Especially considering the economic ruin and the societal changes that are being inflicted.

I do not have the answers (well, I have my opinions on it but they don't count for much) but I can almost guarantee that we cannot stay quarantined for long. People WILL not stay that way.
Steve Rothstein

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Re: Corona Virus (COVID-19) from China: Its going to be bad.

#675

Post by The Annoyed Man » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:40 pm

philip964 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:45 am
March 26, 2020 am. 492,603 cases worldwide with 22,184 dead. 69.210 infected US, 1,046 dead. 74,386 Italy with 7,503 dead. 81,782 China (is anyone believing this). New York state has 33,006 with 366 deaths. Louisiana has 1,795 with 65 deaths. Texas has 1,353 with 17 deaths. Houston 372 with 2 deaths. Obviously some of these numbers have not been updated from last night.


I am surprised that all health care workers were not ordered to wear protective clothing and masks earlier, for any patient not just ones who are showing symptoms. The more people you come in contact with the higher your odds of getting the virus.

The earlier swine flu H 1 N 1 virus in 2009, is not a memory I have. It killed like 16,000 people in the US. I remember nothing about it. It happened during the financial crisis. Did the media just play it down. Was the economy so fragile no one wanted to talk about it. I have heard the word H 1 N 1 before, so it must have had some press coverage. I believe this virus is more dangerous and if we did nothing like with H 1 N 1, the death toll would be much higher. We will really have to see what happens in countries without real heathcare systems to see if it is really as dangerous as we think it is.
I had an enlightening conversation with my urologist yesterday. He’s not a man given to hyperventilating about things. He’s been reading a study that has been pretty accurately predicting the daily mortality rate for the US. Yesterday morning, it was within 4 deaths of the actual number tallied on the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 website....which I actually saw for myself. Anyway, my doctor said that this study is predicting around 1 million total American dead by the time this thing blows over. He was serious. It was sobering. He also said that there are probably on the order of a couple of million infected people walking around right now, who don’t even know they’ve been exposed and and are incubating it. I asked him what about the whole "flattening the curve" thing. He said, we can do that to some extent, but it won’t change the overall numbers; it might hopefully keep us from running out of ICU beds and respirators during the peak of the curve. In fact, he said that our hospitals could end up having to make the same decision Italian hospitals have been ordered to make....to withhold respirators from people above a certain age.

He also said that researchers are anxious to see what happens when COVID-19 begins to blow up in Africa. China has a heavy presence in several African nations, with something like 1200-1500 Chinese nationals arriving in Africa every day as part of the huge infrastructure projects the Chinese are building over there. Obviously, the potential for pandemic spread in Africa is huge, except for one thing. A large part of the population of the African continent is already taking Chloroquine for malaria treatment. My doctor said that Chloroquine doesn’t kill the COVID-19 virus (or the malaria plasmodium, for that matter). Rather, the drug apparently binds to the cellular receptor sites that the virus normally binds to, preventing the virus from taking over the victim's body.

So when COVID-19 takes off in Africa, which it certainly will do, it will provide a perfect laboratory with a HUGE study population to study the effectiveness of Chloroquine in treating and/or preventing COVID-19. If the drug is effective, then those who are already taking it for malaria should become infected with COVID-19 at a MUCH lower rate than everywhere else.

My doctor—who is also part Asian—said that one of the reasons the pandemic was so devastating in China was that Asian males tend to have a higher number of these receptor sites in certain of their cells (I don’t remember which), which means that each of the infected cells can host more viruses than the same cell in say an African or European male...so the effects are more severe.

I grant that it’s impossible to know the true mortality rate without knowing the true total number of cases, but we DO know what the mortality rate is for those who’ve BEEN hospitalized, and THAT number is pretty serious. The Chinese numbers are nonsense. There’s no way to know what their real numbers are. But discounting those, OUR numbers are now the highest. I just now checked, and there are 82,404 known US cases, 1,178 fatalities, and 619 recoveries. 20 of those dead are our fellow Texans.

Here’s what I do know.... when this dies down, we’ll be emerging to face an entirely new normal.
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