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Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:19 am
by jerry_r60
From Fox this morning: Growing Demand for CHL on the Rise.

And from the article:
"Additionally, the study found that concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding—in Florida and Texas permit holders are convicted of misdemeanor and felonies at one-sixth the rate at which police officers are convicted."

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/08/18/ne ... rmits.html

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:28 am
by RSX11
permit holders are convicted of misdemeanor and felonies at one-sixth the rate at which police officers are convicted."
You hear a statistic like this pretty often, and I don't doubt that it's true. But today, it occurred to me to wonder, why it is the case? It's easy to understand that permit holders are going to be a pretty law abiding bunch - they get screened pretty carefully. But, the police are screened pretty carefully as well before being hired - so why do they wind up 6 times worse than permit holders?

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:03 am
by Scott B.
I think there's multiple reasons.

Varying training and hiring standards across the state. The sometimes too thin of a line between cop and criminal. Being surrounded by the worst in society day after day. Standards for reserve or part-time officers. Bad luck.

And I wouldn't look at it as 6 times worse than license holders, look at it as they're at least 6 or 7 times less likely than the general population to commit crimes. License holders are just 12 ~ 14 times less likely. :mrgreen:

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:08 am
by Jusme
RSX11 wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:28 am
permit holders are convicted of misdemeanor and felonies at one-sixth the rate at which police officers are convicted."
You hear a statistic like this pretty often, and I don't doubt that it's true. But today, it occurred to me to wonder, why it is the case? It's easy to understand that permit holders are going to be a pretty law abiding bunch - they get screened pretty carefully. But, the police are screened pretty carefully as well before being hired - so why do they wind up 6 times worse than permit holders?


Sometimes, it's a personality issue, they start out law abiding, and take the job to help people, but their is a certain group, that allow authority, to go to their head, and feel they can get away, with things, they wouldn't be able to, as a regular citizen. There is also, the mental aspect, in that, LEO, are exposed to a lot of grim scenarios, and are very susceptible to PTSD. Then they go home, and their significant other, doesn't understand the issues they're going through. LEO, have a high rate of alcoholism, domestic violence issues, etc. I know, I knew several LEO, that dealt, with some of those issues. There is also, the professional courtesy, whereby, a fellow LEO, will not arrest, another LEO, for infractions, and they get the idea, that they can get away with more and more serious crimes. JMHO

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:15 am
by jerry_r60
I hope this quote also translates to the ballot box for 2nd amendment supporters: "It also found that the number of women and minorities with permits has continued to climb."

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:16 am
by MaduroBU
I think that we are liking at this statistic in the wrong way. Gaining a CHL or joining the ranks of law enforcement are both rare activities; most folks are not a member of either group. But those groups offer insight into a far broader section of society.

Look at murder, a crime for which we have good statistics (at least on victims): it's an exceptionally focal problem. Visiting or living in "Chiraq" doesn't put you at risk unless you go to a select few neighborhoods. Hundreds of folks are shot and killed there every year; Obama's neighborhood has seen exactly 2 murders. YTD for 2018. That pattern of highly focal crime varies from type to type, but in general the image of a free for all in which the law of the jungle prevails is a mockery of the real state of affairs.

Put another way, the CHL statistics may point out how law abiding we are, but they also speak to how law-abiding MOST folks are. In terms of predicting the likely effect of gun control, that point cannot be over emphasized. Far and away most people who die from a gunshot wound in a given year were either a) already prohibited from having a gun or b) could've achieved their purpose with a flintlock. Gun control doesn't try to address cyclical poverty or untreated depression.

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:40 am
by G.A. Heath
RSX11 wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:28 am
permit holders are convicted of misdemeanor and felonies at one-sixth the rate at which police officers are convicted."
You hear a statistic like this pretty often, and I don't doubt that it's true. But today, it occurred to me to wonder, why it is the case? It's easy to understand that permit holders are going to be a pretty law abiding bunch - they get screened pretty carefully. But, the police are screened pretty carefully as well before being hired - so why do they wind up 6 times worse than permit holders?
I suspect the main factor in the statistics for police committing more crimes than license holders is due to a number of factors. First is the fact that there are far fewer officers, so each time an officer is convicted of a crime it has far more weight from a statistical point of view. All other factors combined probably are not half as significant as this one reason alone. Consider a situation where 'group A' which has 1,000,000 members and 6 commit a crime. 'group B' has 1,000 members and 1 commits a crime. Group A has a rate of 6/1,000,000 or 0.0006% while group B has a rate of 1/1000 or 0.1%. Group B is roughly 167 times more likely to commit a crime than group A based on statistics but Group A committed 6 times as many crimes in actuality.

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:02 pm
by twomillenium
RSX11 wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:28 am
permit holders are convicted of misdemeanor and felonies at one-sixth the rate at which police officers are convicted."
You hear a statistic like this pretty often, and I don't doubt that it's true. But today, it occurred to me to wonder, why it is the case? It's easy to understand that permit holders are going to be a pretty law abiding bunch - they get screened pretty carefully. But, the police are screened pretty carefully as well before being hired - so why do they wind up 6 times worse than permit holders?
There is never an excuse for bad behavior, I suspect that some LEO confuse authority with power. Although, just a very few do this, it doesn't take many to make the vast majority suspect. Just my thoughts. The LEOs I know are not like that and it would really hurt if any that I know turned.

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:29 pm
by imkopaka
RSX11 wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:28 am
permit holders are convicted of misdemeanor and felonies at one-sixth the rate at which police officers are convicted."
You hear a statistic like this pretty often, and I don't doubt that it's true. But today, it occurred to me to wonder, why it is the case? It's easy to understand that permit holders are going to be a pretty law abiding bunch - they get screened pretty carefully. But, the police are screened pretty carefully as well before being hired - so why do they wind up 6 times worse than permit holders?
While this is far from the only factor, I think one factor is that LEO's are more frequently placed in situations which present the opportunity to commit a crime (accidentally, even!).

For example, how many LTC holders actually draw their weapon at any point in self defense? Very few, from what we can see. So if a person never defends himself with his firearm, he can never be taken to court for manslaughter with that weapon. Now look at an LEO. How many times might the average LEO have to shoot a bad guy? Each and every time opens the possibility of a lapse in judgement (or a really skilled prosecutor, or a media lynch mob, or, or...) that leads to a manslaughter or murder charge.
G.A. Heath wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:40 am
I suspect the main factor in the statistics for police committing more crimes than license holders is due to a number of factors. First is the fact that there are far fewer officers, so each time an officer is convicted of a crime it has far more weight from a statistical point of view. All other factors combined probably are not half as significant as this one reason alone. Consider a situation where 'group A' which has 1,000,000 members and 6 commit a crime. 'group B' has 1,000 members and 1 commits a crime. Group A has a rate of 6/1,000,000 or 0.0006% while group B has a rate of 1/1000 or 0.1%. Group B is roughly 167 times more likely to commit a crime than group A based on statistics but Group A committed 6 times as many crimes in actuality.
I disagree. Every time I've seen these statistics, they are "per capita," meaning that the actual figures are proportionally expanded or reduced to reflect what they would be if the population samples were the same size. While these figures are not exact and can be thrown off by extremely small sample sizes, there are enough LTC's and LEO's to make an accurate per capita comparison.

Re: Growing Demand for CHL On The Rise

Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:44 pm
by G.A. Heath
imkopaka wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:29 pm
G.A. Heath wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:40 am
I suspect the main factor in the statistics for police committing more crimes than license holders is due to a number of factors. First is the fact that there are far fewer officers, so each time an officer is convicted of a crime it has far more weight from a statistical point of view. All other factors combined probably are not half as significant as this one reason alone. Consider a situation where 'group A' which has 1,000,000 members and 6 commit a crime. 'group B' has 1,000 members and 1 commits a crime. Group A has a rate of 6/1,000,000 or 0.0006% while group B has a rate of 1/1000 or 0.1%. Group B is roughly 167 times more likely to commit a crime than group A based on statistics but Group A committed 6 times as many crimes in actuality.
I disagree. Every time I've seen these statistics, they are "per capita," meaning that the actual figures are proportionally expanded or reduced to reflect what they would be if the population samples were the same size. While these figures are not exact and can be thrown off by extremely small sample sizes, there are enough LTC's and LEO's to make an accurate per capita comparison.
So 1 in 1,000 adjusted 'per capita' means that 'group B' has a rate of 1,000 in 1,000,000 even though 'group B' committed only one crime it's crime carried roughly 167 times as much weight as each crime committed by 'group A'. I want to say that there was around 78,000 LEOs in Texas around the first of the year and 1.2 million LTCs. So each crime a LEO commits carries around 15 times the weight each crime an LTC commits.

Edited to restore everything after first sentence which I accidentally deleted prior to originally posting my reply.