srothstein wrote: Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:57 am
Ruark wrote: Sun Mar 06, 2022 8:58 pmHe also said "if Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine." Not true. Russia's mission in Ukraine is twofold: to stop the persecution of ethnic Russians in the south and east, which continues as you read this, and to demilitarize the country, because of the threat it poses if it ever joins NATO. The goal is for Ukraine to become a neutral country politically, without militaristic aspirations like it has today. Zelensky is horribly inflaming the situation, pretending to be some valiant Joan of Arc hero, and making everything worse and increasing the destruction and suffering.
I disagree based on what is being reported out of Ukraine recently, plus reports from other countries and some slip ups that have been reported. I am not sure there was persecution of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, though I am sure that persecution depends heavily on the eye of the beholder. Were they killed for being Russian or were they killed while rebelling against the established government? If persecution of a part of nation's citizenry justifies a military invasion, can we expect Mexico to send their army into the southwestern US?
I am sure that part of the goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. I can see a fear of American troops being stationed on the Russian borders. But is that justification for an invasion? I don't see it that way but I support each countries right to determine its own path. If that threatens their neighbors, the neighbors might want to look at other diplomatic solutions. Putin could have tried to be more friendly towards Ukraine and supported them. Bring them into the Russian "sphere of influence" by economic and diplomatic support. Of course, Ukrainians may not have wanted this, at least in part because Russia has conquered them in the past and then refused to let it go until the fall of the USSR. It also does not address the fact that Belarus has already shown that they intend to take Moldova next, and the fact that Russia has threatened Finland and Sweden also.
If Russia wanted to "conquer" Ukraine, they could have easily steamrolled over it in a few days. They could have bombed Kiev into the stone age in a couple of hours. They haven't, simply because they're not interested in "acquiring" Ukraine in any way, shape or form. Russia wouldn't have Ukraine if you handed it to them on a silver platter.
Umm, if Russia could have steamrolled over Ukraine, why has it not finished conquering it yet? Seems like Russia is not quite as powerful as you think. Of course, the same question could have been asked about either Russia or the US in Afghanistan. If Russia wanted to bomb them into the stone age, it could have. There is little doubt in my mind about this. Except that Russia knows we would have then bombed them into the stone age, and China and Russia would then bomb us, and we end up with places like Kenya and Uruguay being the world leaders and technological masters after a couple weeks of nuclear war. There is no winner in a nuclear war. Russia not taking Ukraine on a silver platter ignores around 200 of the past 250 years of history. Putin wants to restore Russia to the size and influence of the USSR. And on a side note, based on reports of Russia's current economy, it appears it needs to conquer these other countries to improve its basic economy for its own citizens. There is more at play in this than just how crazy Putin is.
DISCLAIMER: I have not thoroughly studied the background of this war. I am basing a lot of my conclusions on internet based reports, both from formal and informal media. I also have a bias in favor of Ukraine due to my family heritage coming from that area.
More wisdom.
I’m not a Russian scholar, but it doesn’t take a genius level understanding of Russia to understand that they’re very uncomfortable with the idea of having NATO nations pressing in on them. One of the things that has Putin’s panties in a bind is that there is no clearly discernible geographical feature, such as a mountain range or a large river, that easily defines a national boundary along the border between Ukraine and Russia. It’s a big wide-open gateway for an invasion into Russia's interior along her southern border. Russia has been invaded before, and they are culturally paranoid of another one, and not without reason. They suffered terribly in WW2 (as did the Ukrainians). But don’t forget that
they ALSO invaded Poland and Finland during WW2…and all but enslaved the populations of east Germany, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Hungary, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, etc, etc. I’m sure I’ve left some out. The USSR kept up the fiction that these were independent nations who chose democratically to align themselves with Russia, but the fact is, they were governed from Moscow. In fact, Russia divided up Poland with Germany several hundred years ago, and Poland ceased to exist as a nation state for a long time—except perhaps as an idea in the minds of individual Poles. Both Russia and Germany have long histories of expansionist aggression against other European nations. This is in fact what Ukraine is up against today.
Although it has never been a historical fact, the "natural" geographical boundary between Ukraine and Russia would be the Dnieper river. I’m not suggesting they
should, but if Ukraine decided, for instance to cede everything north of the Dnieper to Russia, there’s a good chance Putin would have never ordered the invasion. By virtue of where the Dnieper empties into the Black Sea, ceded territory would necessarily include the Crimea and the ports of Sebastopol and Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. But that area north of the Dnieper contains easily half or more of Ukraine's entire territory. Such a ceding would be unthinkable to the citizens of ANY nation, let alone Ukrainians.
But does Russian paranoia justify an invasion of a non-aligned country that has not threatened Russia militarily? I am convinced that the answer is NO, and therefore Russia is an aggressor acting in defiance of international law.
The Ukrainians are not saints. A HUGE percentage of the hacking attempts against my own websites originate from Ukrainian IP addresses. It’s not cyber warfare, it’s purely hacking for the sake of taking over my domains for the dissemination of porn and spam emails. I take measures against it, so I’m good. But the number of attempts from the much smaller country of Ukraine rivals the number of attempts from much larger Russia. This condition exists specifically because both countries allow it. And they both allow it because their political and legal systems are corrupt.
Both countries, despite being "old-world" in many respects, are also post-modern in many respects. Living under decades of communist rule destroyed any moral foundation for vast swathes of both country’s populations. Given this, it is useless to decry the corruption of either country’s political classes. It’s just a given, a fact of life, that they’re mostly all corrupt.
The roots of
this war go back to Putin having initially succeeded in establishing a pro-Russia president in Ukraine. He did this to force Ukraine's alignment with Russia’s interests. He has recently done this in Kazakhstan as well, and he has done it in other countries. But this "Russia-adjacent" Ukrainian president was not popular with the largest part of the Ukrainian population. They had an uprising, and threw the bum out, and elected someone far more palatable to the majority of Ukraine's population. This is known in most circles as democracy in action. Did they choose wisely in electing Zelenskiy? It’s not for me to say. It’s what
THEY wanted, and that’s what counts.
Yes, it is true that there are several million ethnic Russians in far eastern Ukraine. Let’s examine how they got there. Some have been there generationally, going back to Russia’s historical occupations of Ukraine over the past few hundred years. Some are there because the Ukraine's northern border with Russia is geographically more porous than even
our southern border. But there is absolutely no question that some of them are there because that is where the USSR put them, in order to ensure the political reliability of territory that was strategically important to the USSR. When the USSR collapsed, these Russians
could have gone home. They chose to stay, and by so doing, they
chose to become part of Ukraine. They chose to become Ukrainians—the same way as a Mexican immigrant to the United States chooses to become an American. If, 30 years down the road, that immigrant’s children decides to fight for Mexico’s annexation of our southwestern states, that would be equally unacceptable to the rest of the US, and Americans—both those living in the southwest, and those living elsewhere—would
RIGHTLY oppose it.
THAT is what’s been happening in Eastern Ukraine. Ethnic Russian Ukrainians are calling it "Ukrainian oppression of ethnic Russians" whenever the Ukrainian gov’t and the majority of Ukraine’s citizenry act to oppose the Russian "reconquista" of eastern Ukraine. What the Russian separatists in Ukraine are doing is
exactly analogous to what would happen here in the US if the "reconquista" attempted to recapture Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California for Mexico’s glory. What Ukraine has been doing is to actively resist seeing a large chunk of their territory AND national strategic assets carved off by the Russian reconquista for Russia’s glory. It’s Ukraine's
RIGHT as a sovereign nation to protect its sovereignty over its territory. Russia has ZERO sovereign right to ANY part of Ukraine. So what Pooty-poot has been doing to is stir the flames of, and materially support, that ethnic Russian insurrection—because it benefits Russia strategically to do so…not because he gives a dead cat for those Russians. If he really cared about Russians, he wouldn’t be subjecting his fellow citizens to the collapse of the Russian economy that HE brought about through his actions. Nor would he be throwing Russians in prison for publicly voicing opposition to his insanity.
I saw some speculation just this morning—
probably Ukrainian disinformation, but I hope that it’s true—that Putin has a terminal cancer; that the bloated appearance of his face is due to the steroids he’s been having to take as part of his treatment; and that essentially he launched the invasion because he has “chemo-brain”. It’s probably not true, and I don’t normally hope for this kind of thing, but in
his case I HOPE it’s true for two reasons…no three… (1) He's a pig and I hope his time on earth is short; (2)
Russians deserve better leadership than they’re getting; and (3) he deserves to suffer for what he has done to Ukraine, and to other nations……
and for what he’s done to the individual soldiers he sent off to unknowingly act as cannon fodder to die sometimes terrible deaths, and to their families, and for the collapse of Russia's economy which will affect all Russians except that handful of oligarchs who helped to put that son of a dog into office and keep him there. I hope he and his oligarch buddies burn for it.
EVEN IF his reasons for invading were pure and justifiable (they’re not), his execution of it is criminal. MLRS barrages launched against civilian population centers without military targets, that aren’t strategic or military objectives? That’s a war crime, and he should hang for it. A combined rocket attack, artillery barrage, and armored assault
ON EUROPE'S LARGEST NUCLEAR POWER PLANT? That’s some criminally insane clown show stuff, and he should be imprisoned for it. Agreeing in negotiations to allow a safety corridor for civilians to flee a contested city, and then dropping mortars on those civilians within minutes after they attempt to use it? That’s a category of evil I can’t even pretend to comprehend, and he deserves to be pushed into a volcano for it. And not just him, but also the pigs who are making the tactical decisions and issuing those orders, and also any individual Russian soldier who never questioned the savagery of his illegal orders and dutifully carried them out.
The Ukrainians are not saints. Their disinformation campaign is ridiculously transparent. At least they’ve managed to put their hackers to work doing cyber warfare against Russia; but I sincerely hope that they put them out of business when this is over. I feel horrible for the average Josef and Josefina Ukrainians who happen to be decent people with honest jobs, and who are being killed and driven out of their homes and cities by this century’s Hitler, against whom they’ve done nothing to deserve this. I am inspired by the spirited defense that even private citizens of Ukraine are putting up…not just the Ukrainian military. I
hope that average Americans would be as froggy if the US were invaded by a foreign power. I also feel bad for those poor Russian soldiers who were sold a bill of goods, and didn’t even know they were
in a war until AFTER it started; who bear Ukraine no ill will; and who were either killed or captured. It is true that, by publicizing videos of these captured Russian soldiers and the KIA bodies of their comrades, Ukraine is violating the Geneva Conventions. But also given that Russia is the overt and unapologetic aggressor in this war, I’m happy to look the other way. Russians back home need to see these videos and images, so that they’ll fully appreciate what their Dear Leader has gotten them into.
We have Nazis here in the US……not very many, but we DO have some. Should Canada or Mexico invade us to "de-nazify" us? Putin's invasion of eastern Ukraine to "de-nazify" it is purely cow dung. We have a certain percentage of our Hispanic population that, for any number of reasons, live in poverty. And because many of them are either here illegally, or they’re legal but not citizens, they can’t vote to change things in their favor. Are they being oppressed, and should Mexico invade the southwest to protect them? If you answer yes, then you don’t have your head screwed on straight. Americans would
RIGHTLY resist such an invasion, both as individuals, and as a matter of national policy! Our southern border is a sieve, and millions of immigrants of all kinds of nationalities have illegally crossed it. Furthermore, the Mexican gov’t has made policy decisions which
encourage this invasion…JUST as Putin has encouraged ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Should the US invade Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala to establish a more easily defensible southern border below the Yucatán peninsula? Of course not!
Here’s a fact: if the Russians stop shooting and go home, this war is over, and the suffering stops. If the Ukrainians stop shooting, their country will be erased, and eventually, so will their national identity. This too is indefensible.
Putin's reasons for invading Ukraine are indefensible. They are indefensible on the grounds of "de-Nazifying a neighboring country. They are indefensible in claiming to protect ethnic Russians. And they are indefensible in seeking to establish a different southern border protected by an obvious geographical feature. They are indefensible. Period.
Other than that, I have no opinion.
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EDITED 2X TO CORRECT SPELLING ERRORS.)
