Statistics ??: % CHL and % LEO vs TX Population

[WildBill]

I am curious what the percentage of those LEO's handly administrative duties only.

That information would have to come from their employers and would vary based on their organization. It seems like a very large percentage of TCLEOSE certificate holders are prison guards or jailers, so I would think that they wouldn't be carrying on the job. I don't know if they can carry off-duty.

[WildBill]

it appears to me from the national statistics that come out regularly that the one of biggest differences between states with higher crime levels and those with lower crime levels are the number of LEOs per capita (more LEOs = lower crime).

Does that apply to cities as well as states?

[drinks]

I spent 10 years with TDCJ, so far as I know, almost none of the employees are TCLOSE, at least for their job with TDCJ. Internal Affairs officers are the only ones required to be TCLOSE, I did know a few wannabe Wyatt Earps COs who went to school and got their TCLOSE, most just volunteered to be unpaid reserve LEOs until a chance came along to get a full time LEO job and they could tell TDCJ to shove it, as most wanted to do.
TDCJ is not a very nice place to work.

[Excaliber]

Don't forget that a lot of Texans have traditionally carried a handgun in their car, CHL or no CHL.

Having said that and while concealed carry makes a difference in crime levels, it appears to me from the national statistics that come out regularly that the one of biggest differences between states with higher crime levels and those with lower crime levels are the number of LEOs per capita (more LEOs = lower crime).

Political entities generally increase the LEO to population ratios in response to high crime levels.

The figures I believe you're referring to are called the Uniform Crime Reports put out by the FBI.

I'd like to see an analysis of these figures that supports your hypothesis.

[seamusTX]

You can't look at entire states. You need to look at what are called Metropolitan Statistical Areas and compare those figures to the statewide averages.

U.S. cities are nearly always worse than their statewide averages. (I say "nearly" but I would bet that all cities are worse. I'm just too lazy to run the numbers.)

If you can find a breakdown by ZIP code within a city, the difference is even more striking.

I agree with Excaliber that high levels of police staffing are a response to rising crime, and sometimes to the vagaries of federal funding. Some Congressmen are better at bringing home bacon than others.

Here's a related thread: http://www.texasshooting.com/TexasCHL_F ... &sk=t&sd=a" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There really are two Americas that occupy the same geographic area. It is almost as if they were in different dimensions.

One is populated by honest, hard-working people who rarely commit or encounter violent crime (except for domestic abuse. which crosses all social and economic lines).

The other is populated by impoverished, desperate people whose lives are plagued by family breakdown, drug abuse, ignorance (in the sense of doing poorly in school and dropping out), and violent crime, even if they are not themselves criminals.

- Jim

[srothstein]

Well, I can give you some help on the LEO side of things.

First, if anyone wants to know how many peace officers there are in Texas, you could submit an open records request to TCLEOSE. You can get the number of people who have licenses that are not suspended or revoked, the number of active licenses (slightly different from above since without training, a license is inactivated after two years), and the number of currently employed peace officers. They can give firm hard numbers as they have to approve any licensee and his activation by an agency.

Clarification: Any activated TCLEOSE peace officer licensee can carry off duty. They are peace officers, with all that it implies. That includes those whose duties are as jailers. Further clarification is that TCLEOSE licenses peace officers, jailers for other than TDCJ, and telecommunication operators (dispatchers). TDCJ guards are licensed by TDCJ only. Their Office of the Inspector General (IA for most things) are certified peace officers by TCLEOSE also. County sehriffs may have peace officer deputies or jailer deputies. A peace officer deputy may be assigned to work the jail but a jailer deputy cannot work the street or investigations.

Finally, the number of peace officers in relation to the population does not change significatnly due to rural or metropolitan area. There are more agencies in each area than the local police, but the number of people climbs also. For example, Caldwell County is considered rural (45,000 total population). It has a sheriff's office, 4 constable offices, a fire marshal's office, a DPS office, and four municipal police departments. No shcool police yet, but there are 4 districts that have the legal authority to start their own PD's. Management theory in law enforcement is to have 2.5 officers per 1000 population. A few parts of the country have more, but it is very little more. A few have less, but it is very little less. I would say (my best off the cuff estimate) is the range would vary from 2.2 to 2.8.

If someone were trying for a statistical comparison, you could probably safely use the 2.5 ratio as a basis. But, don't forget to control for the fact that, like some chl's, there are going to be some LEO's who do not carry off duty too. When it comes to weapons, cops run the range from Tackleberry to Barney Fife, and I know some where one bullet may be two too many. When doing the study, don't forget to estimate the legal gun owners other than LEO and CHL that have been known to help.This includes the neighbor with a gun on his own property, the traveller, the security guard, etc..

I would also freely stipulate that there are more CHL's than there are cops. I will also stipulate that when the CHL does get involved in something, he is more likely to handle it correctly than the cop. The corollary statistic is that the cop is much more likely to get involved in something that doesn't affect him directly. I will also stipulate AND strongly support the concept that you, as an individual, are responsible for your own defense. I urge you to carry 24/7 or guess right.

[WildBill]

Clarification: Any activated TCLEOSE peace officer licensee can carry off duty. They are peace officers, with all that it implies. That includes those whose duties are as jailers. Further clarification is that TCLEOSE licenses peace officers, jailers for other than TDCJ, and telecommunication operators (dispatchers). TDCJ guards are licensed by TDCJ only. Their Office of the Inspector General (IA for most things) are certified peace officers by TCLEOSE also. County sehriffs may have peace officer deputies or jailer deputies. A peace officer deputy may be assigned to work the jail but a jailer deputy cannot work the street or investigations.

So, am I correct in assuming that to havd an "activated TCLEOSE liscense" you must be currently employed by a law enforcement agency? What about those off duty LEOs carrying outside their normal jurisdiction? What powers do they have beyond those of a civilian.

The range of 2.3-2.8% is 0.5%. So for a city the size of Houston you could have 10,000 more LEOs than Caldwell County and still be in the normal range.

[Excaliber]

First, if anyone wants to know how many peace officers there are in Texas, you could submit an open records request to TCLEOSE.

Law enforcement officer numbers for every state are also included in the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports. Here's a link to the 2006 data. The numbers won't be quite as current as those from TCLEOSE, but they're easier to access and they don't change a whole lot from year to year. The confirmed data is about 2 years old and pending data for the past year is available too. Breakdowns by city are also available from the FBI on another UCR page.

[srothstein]

So, am I correct in assuming that to havd an "activated TCLEOSE liscense" you must be currently employed by a law enforcement agency?

Sorry, I worded it a little poorly. In this case, activated means it has been used once. An activated license is one where you have been employed by an agency and have continued your training. If you leave an agency, you can still keep an activated license if you keep up the training on your own. This allows you to go back to work for another agency at any time. A license is inactive if you are not employed and have not kept up the training. TCLEOSE uses the term inactive for this to differentiate it from suspended.

Suspended is a disciplinary action by TCLEOSE for a violation of its rules or the law.

What about those off duty LEOs carrying outside their normal jurisdiction? What powers do they have beyond those of a civilian.

In Texas, any peace officer can carry with the same authority, whether on or off duty or in their jurisdiction or not. As an aside, this includes all honorably retired Texas peace officers also. The law on 30.05 does not apply to retired officers like ti does active, so they can be banned from private property. 30.06 does not apply to retired officers or off duty officers either.

The range of 2.3-2.8% is 0.5%. So for a city the size of Houston you could have 10,000 more LEOs than Caldwell County and still be in the normal range.

Yep. If Caldwell County were at the bottom of the range, it would have 103 officers. If Harris County were at the top of the range, it would have about 10900. But even if they were at the same end of the range (both at the bottom 2.3 number) Harris County would have 8,500 more officers than Caldwell County.

I think the reality is that smaller areas tend to be at the higher rates since there is some much more overhead as a percentage of the agency. The Chief and detectives are probably a larger percentage of the department in Caldwell County than in Houston, though the number of Chiefs and overhead for each department in Houston may make up for it.

[stroo]

I haven't done any "analysis" to support my belief, nor am I going to. It just comes from eyeballing numbers. You can look at them and come to the same or a different conclusion. I believe that the Uniform Statistics were what I looked at although it could have been something that was done based on the Uniform Statistics. I don't really remember where I saw the information.

Having said that, it makes logical sense that increasing the number of LEOs per capita would reduce crime. The more police you have the more likely BG will be caught. Having said that, other factors would also reduce crime, such as CHL laws, putting away multiple time offenders for longer term and other things. I wasn't suggesting that the number of LEO per capita was the only factor in reducing crime, just that it appeared to me to be one of the more significant ones.

[seamusTX]

Having said that, it makes logical sense that increasing the number of LEOs per capita would reduce crime. The more police you have the more likely BG will be caught.

It may sound logical, but no one can prove it with real-world statistics. A city can hire 10,000 cops; but if all they do is write traffic tickets between donut breaks, they are not going to affect violent crime.

It's the policing technique that matters.

- Jim

[WildBill]

Having said that, it makes logical sense that increasing the number of LEOs per capita would reduce crime. The more police you have the more likely BG will be caught.

It may sound logical, but no one can prove it with real-world statistics. A city can hire 10,000 cops; but if all they do is write traffic tickets between donut breaks, they are not going to affect violent crime.

It's the policing technique that matters. - Jim

If cities continue to treat police departments as revenue generating entities, this trend will continue.

[Excaliber]

I haven't done any "analysis" to support my belief, nor am I going to. It just comes from eyeballing numbers. You can look at them and come to the same or a different conclusion. I believe that the Uniform Statistics were what I looked at although it could have been something that was done based on the Uniform Statistics. I don't really remember where I saw the information.

Having said that, it makes logical sense that increasing the number of LEOs per capita would reduce crime. The more police you have the more likely BG will be caught. Having said that, other factors would also reduce crime, such as CHL laws, putting away multiple time offenders for longer term and other things. I wasn't suggesting that the number of LEO per capita was the only factor in reducing crime, just that it appeared to me to be one of the more significant ones.

With the understanding that I am not being personally critical of a member, the assertion that increasing the number of LEO's would reduce crime is is an assumption without basis and does not hold up to historical review. For example, in the last decades of the 20th century, New York City saw skyrocketing crime rates and increased the size of the police department substantially without bringing the crime rates under control. There were large parts of the city where you took your life in your hands to go into. It was bad enough that I wore a bullet resistant vest anytime I visited there, on duty or off. It took a radical change in policing strategy and tactics under Commissioner Howard Safir to radically reduce the crime rates by targeting (instead of ignoring) the low level criminals who directly impacted the quality of life, and by holding command level officers directly accountable for the effectiveness of policing in their command areas. Those strategies and tactics, among others, are directly responsible for the much lower crime rates in that city today. As Jim said, the policing technique matters. In my experience, the command guidance from the department's leadership matters even more.

I would be the first to defend anyone's right to hold an unsupported opinion if he wants to. However, I think when one is posted here it should be recognized and identified as such, particularly when it contains vague references to unspecified statistical sources that were not in fact systematically analyzed before unsubstantiated conclusions were drawn.

[stroo]

Excalibur,

Of course you are being personally critical of a member - me. Your personal criticism is unfounded.

First, most of the posts on this forum, including your post critical of me, do not include citations to studies or any rigorous statistical analysis to make their point and therefore are unsubstantiated. That is the nature of the internet.

Second, anyone who blindly trusts anything posted on the internet is a fool. You should always research any assertion on the internet for yourself. Indeed, in my post I invited members to look at the issue for themselves.

Third, your own post doesn't contain any rigorous statistical analysis or citation to any study to make your point. My assertion was not an "assumption". It was based on my eyeballing of statistics, probably the Uniform Crime Statistics. To discount my general assertion, you cite a single example of NYC in the 1980s and 1990s. A single example doesn't invalidate anything since there are always exceptions to rules, even more so when a "factor" not a rule is at issue. All I asserted was that the number LEOs per capita was one factor, albeit an important one, in the reduction of crime. Obviously I agree that other factors may undercut that one factor. In addition, you cite no studies, analyzes or any other factual source to corroborate your assertions about NYC. In failing to substantiate your assertions, you fail your own test.

[WildBill]

I believe that population density is a big factor in crime statistics. For example, both are large cities, but the people in New York City are crammed into a much smaller area than Dallas.