The Annoyed Man wrote:surprise_i'm_armed wrote:IIRC, a personal defense gun battle boils down to "3-3-3".
That's 3 shots fired, at 3 yards, in 3 seconds.
Has anyone else heard this?
SIA
Not that exact variation, but something like it. I believe that statistically, most gun battles consist of 2-3 shots fired by either party. I know that others will disagree, but this is generally why I don't bother to carry a second gun. In fact, when I
have done so, the second wasn't really a backup gun. I was just transporting it, and it was loaded. The guns that I
do carry have proven to my satisfaction to be very reliable, and I generally don't carry more that one backup magazine, although rarely I will carry two. The extra mags aren't so much for the extra ammo, as they are for the rare possibility of a magazine failure...
...and for executing tactical reloads while somersaulting.
The 2-3 shot count per officer is a very old statistic - from the 1980's.
This
article contains a table from NYPD's SOP 9 report that shows an average of about double that in the decade of 1990 - 2000. The column on hits vs. shots fired is instructive as well. It's also worthwhile to remember that many of NYPD's encounters involved multiple officers who fired their guns. Some fired a lot, some fired a little - and from that data averages are derived.
Relying on the old 2 - 3 shot statistic and figuring that you'll have rounds left over in your J frame after a violent encounter is a lot like not carrying a gun because on average on any given day your chances of becoming the victim of a violent crime are close to zero, although that rises considerably when wider time frames are considered. Even if both statistics were taken at face value, averages don't mean that's the way things usually go. They are calculated from a whole bunch of incidents that departed both from above and below what emerges as the average.
Keep in mind also that shots fired do not equal hits. The 2006 SOP9 report (the latest one I have) shows a 43% officer hit rate at distances of zero to two yards, and a 23% hit rate at from 3 - 7 yards. Things go south quickly from there.
The 2006 average of shots fired per officer in gunfights was 7.6, with a 30% hit rate. This was compiled from 13 incidents and 19 involved officers. These numbers will vary from agency to agency and from year to year, but note that 7 out of every 10 rounds fired in NYPD gun fights that year hit something other than the intended target.
Does your ammo load account for misses, which happen a lot, even to highly trained people in the chaos of a gunfight?