Re: I'm kind of an expert in your field
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 3:26 pm
I thought I was wrong once, but then I realized that I was mistaken in that belief. 
You've got a point. And not to knock cops, but like most people in this country, they're math skills are going to be very limited. On the whole lawyers and doctors also have very limited math skills and a lot of statistical nonsense gets admitted into trials and gets used to sell or justify various medical prescriptions and procedures. One of the most obvious statistical misuses common in the media and medical profession are the claims that X increases your chances of Y by 20%, or 50%, etc. So they take, say, a doubling of incidence, from 1 to 2 in 100,000 and claim your risk has doubled. It's technically true but essentially meaningless, since your risk has only changed from 0.001% to 0.002%. Lawyers are equally adept at misusing probabilistic math.mojo84 wrote:Just for fun:
I think the same things when people are criticizing insurance agents and companies. There are very few industries in the world that have been built and refined on as much data and analysis.
People, some of them cops, like to tell me they are being overcharged for their auto or home insurance or how they think their claim isn't being adjusted properly. I want to ask them to show me their actuarial data or their policy provisions and claims handling analysis that supports their contention . Keep in mind, I'm the expert because I've been in the business for 20 plus years and have worked with hundreds of clients over that time. Mere citizen insured's can have no valid opinion regarding what you are charged or how your claim is adjusted. Insurance companies are big and powerful and never make mistakes. Therefore, they should not be questioned by the uneducated unwashed masses.
See what I did there?
