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Paladin wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2024 9:13 am Biden/Harrisomics for all:

https://www.uscourts.gov/news/2024/07/2 ... .2 Percent

Personal and business bankruptcy filings rose 16.2 percent in the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2024, compared with the previous year.

Business filings rose 40.3 percent, from 15,724 to 22,060 in the year ending June 30, 2024.

This is not what a growing economy looks like. Its just gaslighting to say the economy is not in a recession

U.S. banks face a reckoning: Over the next two years, more than $1 trillion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans will come due

The damage could metastasize into a full-blown financial crisis if scores or even hundreds of small- and midsize commercial banks fail simultaneously. A worst-case scenario might include contagion to other economies and banking deserts across the U.S.

Fed officials have indicated that a CRE crisis will probably lead to bank failures. Multiple, simultaneous bank failures could be catastrophic for the financial system.

It’s unlikely that the Fed, FDIC, and a consortium of the largest banks can rescue hundreds of compromised commercial banks at once.

Pandemic-accelerated troubles in the CRE market may take more than a decade to resolve.

Increasing office space vacancies linked to remote and hybrid work could extend price declines and deepen losses for lenders in this space. Most empty or underutilized office space is too costly to convert to residential or other uses and will require deeper price concessions. As leases can stretch to 10 years before they are due for renewal, it may take years for the office space market to clear.

Paladin wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2024 1:54 pm Harvard Business Review: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis

U.S. banks face a reckoning: Over the next two years, more than $1 trillion in commercial real estate (CRE) loans will come due

The damage could metastasize into a full-blown financial crisis if scores or even hundreds of small- and midsize commercial banks fail simultaneously. A worst-case scenario might include contagion to other economies and banking deserts across the U.S.

Fed officials have indicated that a CRE crisis will probably lead to bank failures. Multiple, simultaneous bank failures could be catastrophic for the financial system.

It’s unlikely that the Fed, FDIC, and a consortium of the largest banks can rescue hundreds of compromised commercial banks at once.

Pandemic-accelerated troubles in the CRE market may take more than a decade to resolve.

Increasing office space vacancies linked to remote and hybrid work could extend price declines and deepen losses for lenders in this space. Most empty or underutilized office space is too costly to convert to residential or other uses and will require deeper price concessions. As leases can stretch to 10 years before they are due for renewal, it may take years for the office space market to clear.

Wall Street is likely to be a bloodbath today. The first warning signs were on Friday, culminating on Sunday night when all * broke loose in Asia. The Nikkei had its worst day since 1987, sinking nearly 4,000 points. It suspended trading after sinking nearly eight percent. South Korea’s stock exchange halted all sell orders as a looming wave of brutality is expected to hit Wall Street this morning. We’ll update this post accordingly, but a drubbing on the New York Stock Exchange shouldn’t surprise anyone. Also, don’t look at your 401ks

Foreign investors are selling Japanese stocks due to concerns that the U.S. may be heading for a recession, said Naka Matsuzawa, chief strategist at Nomura Securities. “The fall is not really happening due to Japan-specific reasons,” he said. “Markets are still trying to find the bottom.”

He said he is taking a “wait-and-see approach until U.S. tech stocks show some kind of resilience.” He does not foresee a global recession, and said markets will be volatile until the U.S. Federal Reserve lowers rates. Investors are pricing in a cut by September.

...maxed-out credit cards and depleted personal savings have pushed credit card loan defaults to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

Financial Times cited new data from BankRegData revealing that credit card companies wrote off $46 billion in "seriously delinquent loan" balances in the first nine months of the year—an alarming 50% increase from the same period last year and the highest level in 14 years.

“The 1.57 percent delinquency percentage means more than $47.1B of loans would have been delinquent at the end of the year,” writes Billy Wadsack for Bisnow’s Dallas-Fort Worth bureau. That’s an 88 percent increase from a decade ago.

Delinquencies in CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities) are setting multi-year highs with $38B in arrears at year-end 2024, a 41 percent increase from the previous year end.