flintknapper wrote:Charles L. Cotton wrote:Texas population: Approx. 22,000,000
Number over 21: Approx. 14,000,000
Number of CHL's: 258,165
Ratio of eligible population to CHL's: 54 to 1.
Ratio of total population to CHL's: 85 to 1.
We're grossly outnumbered and a minuscule number of us, relatively speaking, open-carrying aren't going to force a huge majority to accept anything. What we'll do is wake a sleeping giant.
Remember folks, this is a hypothetical question asking you to presume open-carry would result in widespread posting of 30.06 signs. The goal is to see how many people would be willing to sacrifice our ability to carry in vast numbers of businesses that currently don't post 30.06 signs.
Chas.
IMO, this presumes the "huge majority" is either anti-
gun or would be so intimidated by anyone they knew to be in possession of one, that it would result in your hypothesis. I just don't think this is the case (in this state).
I believe the percentage of Texans who are anti-gun is very small. However, I don’t believe anti-gun sentiment is necessary for the backlash I fear to occur. CHL has become a non-issue for two reasons. First, because the statute has been a huge success and CHL holders are far less likely to commit any index crime than is the general population in Texas. In short, CHL’s have a great track record. Secondly, the general public never thinks about us not only because of our great track record, but also because they never see us carrying our guns. 258,000 Texans are legally carrying guns that are never seen.
I am also convinced that anti-gun sentiment in 1995 and 1996 represented a very small portion of the general population in Texas. However, beginning with the signing of SB60 on May 26, 1995, the now infamous “ghost-busters� no-guns signs were popping up on businesses like crabgrass. Were it not for the BOMA convention in Houston and their letter recommending against posting of “no-gun� signs, the problem would have grown exponentially. In my view, this was a watershed event for CHL’s. Without the BOMA letter, we would have been fighting this issue for years. While BOMA did affect the decision making of large real estate owners and management companies, that organization had little impact on small businesses that continued to post “ghost-busters� signs in ever-increasing numbers.
By the end of 1996, it was clear that the blood-in-the-streets predictions of our opponents had not come true. However, CHL’s had only been issued since January 1st of that year, so the anti-gunners were saying, “just wait, it’s coming.� In the 1997 Legislative Session, HB2909 was passed to deal with a number of CHL issues, not the least of which was the “ghost-buster� decals that were numerous and often very difficult to see. This was the bill that established TPC §30.06 and the “30.06 sign.� For the first time since Gov. Bush signed SB60 on May 26, 1995, we saw a decrease (a huge one) in the number of businesses posting enforceable (i.e. 30.06 compliant) no-guns signs. Even then, a number of businesses posted 30.06 signs, but many soon came down not because the owners had a sudden change of heart, but because the sign was really big and ugly! (This, by the way, was by design.) As time went on, the blood-in-the-streets crowd and their predictions were proven to be unfounded. People didn’t see anything different in their lives both because violent crime actually went down and because CHL’s guns were not visible.
All the things in the preceding paragraphs occurred in an atmosphere that was very pro-gun. The media as a whole did it’s very best to foster fear and aid the anti-gunners and it worked well enough for over two years to prompt numerous businesses to post ghost-busters decals. It was not a change of heart that stopped the flow of no-guns signs, but a change in the law. Of course it would be different now, because of eleven years of a very successful CHL program. (But I am convinced that very few people outside the CHL community are aware of our exemplary track record.) However, open-carry would cost us one of the two reasons why citizens-carrying-guns has become a non-issue, anonymity. People in the grocery store, Home Depot, church, city parks and everywhere else we go never see our guns, so they never give CHL a second thought. With open-carry this would change.
The media would again be an ally of anti-gunners. Reporters with cameramen in tow would be scouring the malls, public libraries and school parking lots looking for people carrying guns. I can just imagine a reporter’s diatribe against guns that would accompany a news video of school children waiting for a bus with someone carrying a pistol walking behind them. Or how about a video of a mother scurrying her children away from one of us at a Home Depot or perhaps a Barnes & Noble? Do we really think a business manager would hesitate to post a 30.06 sign? (If open-carry were to pass, then TPC §30.06 would be amended to allow a property owner to prohibit open-carry as well.)
I know many people feel that the experience of other states that allow open-carry is a good predictor of what would happen in Texas. I cannot accept that argument. I think comparing a state that has had open-carry for a long time to Texas which has outlawed open-carry since the 1870's is invalid. In current open-carry states, people are already used to it and have been for decades, perhaps even since the 1800's. In Texas, this would be a significant change and people would be seeing something no Texan has seen since about 1875. I don’t think we can discount this distinction. (Does anyone know of a state that only recently allowed open-carry? That might be a better predictor.)
I have admitted in at least one other thread on open-carry that my concerns may be unfounded. However, they are based upon our experience in the early days of CHL as well as a well-founded mistrust of what the media will do with this issue. I hope open-carry supporters will also admit that they may be wrong about the reaction we may see from businesses, but I’m yet to see such an admission. If I am wrong and open-carry never passes in Texas then what do we lose? We lose the ability to carry openly when we choose or when it would be far more convenient, such as during Texas’ hot summers. We will still be able to carry almost everywhere we go, but we won’t be able to carry our guns openly. If open-carry supporters are wrong, what will we lose? We will lose the ability to carry openly or concealed in many businesses that currently don’t post 30.06 signs. I don’t think open-carry would result in wholesale changes of Texas’ gun laws, but I would not be surprised to see places like churches, hospitals and nursing homes once again off-limits even without a 30.06 sign. If even one or two CHL’s are seen or photographed open-carrying in a school parking lot or walkway, then you can bet the definition of “premises� will be amended to include everything on the school grounds.
I received an email from someone who asked if I would oppose open-carry if the TSRA or the NRA supported an open-carry bill. The answer is an emphatic “no.� I am giving purely my personal opinions and concerns. If, after deliberation and debate, the decision is made to support open-carry, then I will work for it’s passage just as diligently as I did all of the CHL bills and the “clean-up� bills. I’ll do so thinking that we’d better be careful what we wish for, but I’m a good soldier and I’ll fight the battle I’m given. (I also would not oppose an open-carry bill promoted by one of the open-carry groups in Texas.)
I realize that I am in the minority on the open-carry issue, at least with the TexasCHLforum community. In my view, the risks far outweigh the benefits of making such a dramatic change in the law. (Perhaps it would have less impact after car-carry by non-CHL's has been on the books a while.) All I ask open-carry supporters to do is at least consider that we could see a backlash from the business community, and to a lesser degree from the Legislature. If open-carry ever does pass in Texas, I hope you folks are saying “I told you so,� rather than the other way around. I truly want to be wrong on this issue - I just don’t believe I am.
Chas.