Crime statistics are published about a year after the calendar year, and they encompass an entire year. Texas castle doctrine went into effect in September 2007. It would be difficult or impossible to distinguish before-and-after effects for that year.
In 2007, Texas had a total of 38,769 robberies. The data are not presented in a way that would tell us how many of these would have fallen under castle doctrine. However, most robberies are in homes or business, with workers in the business being the target of the robbery.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_05.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The final report for CY 2008 is not available yet. The data that is available is not divided by state. The preliminary report shows that overall violent crime was down about 2% from 2007 to 2008:
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/2008prelim/table_3.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Personally, I doubt that castle doctrine or the number of CHLs will affect crime rates.
The rate of violent crime and theft is a function of the number of young men, roughly age 15-25, who are living in poverty and what used to be called "broken homes," combined with the state of the economy. These young men are not very bright, if not outright crack babies; and they do not think of consequences.
To put it bluntly, they do not think, gee, I had better not rob people, because they might shoot me. They are living in a fantasy of some gansta hip-hop video.
There is also a fairly constant rate of mentally ill people and deranged people in failed relationships who commit assault and murder. Those people also do not think of consequences. Look at the number of men who kill their estranged wife or girlfriend and then commit suicide, either directly or by cop.
P.S.: I used robbery instead of burglary because the victim of a robbery is always a person who is present. Burglary can involved an occupied or unoccupied building, probably more often unoccupied. In 2007, there were 228,313 reported burglaries in Texas.
- Jim