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Recently, someone challenged me as to why I felt the need to carry, asserting that the possibility of needing to use a firearm was exceedingly rare. I asked, "Do you have a fire extinguisher and smoke detectors in you home?" "Of course!" was the answer.

In the US there are 400,000 residential fires every year, and there are ~105,000,000 homes. Odds of a home fire? 1 in 263.

http://www.cdc.gov/HomeandRecreationalS ... sheet.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

According to the DOJ, the rate of being the victim of a violent crime is 20 / 1,000 overall (as high as 27 / 1,000 for some groups like african americans.) That comes out to 1 in 50.

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=1743" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's hard to argue with cold, hard facts.

I've been thinking of using fire insurance as the counter-example for carrying a gun. I like the smoke detector/fire extinguisher better. Thanks for the post and the statistics.

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't the odds of anything happening, 1 out of ???????

Guess who the 1 is . Got it yet?

davidtx wrote:I've been thinking of using fire insurance as the counter-example for carrying a gun. I like the smoke detector/fire extinguisher better. Thanks for the post and the statistics.

You could add asking if they wear a seatbelt, and if they reply in the affirmative, ask if that means they're planning on having an accident.

Folks--it's not about the odds-----it's about the stakes (my family member or me), which I think OG was referring to.

Excaliber wrote:

davidtx wrote:I've been thinking of using fire insurance as the counter-example for carrying a gun. I like the smoke detector/fire extinguisher better. Thanks for the post and the statistics.

You could add asking if they wear a seatbelt, and if they reply in the affirmative, ask if that means they're planning on having an accident.

According to NHTSA, US Bureau of Transit Statistics, US DOT's Federal Highway Administration..

Odds for being involved in a traffic crash (per driver)- 2.9M crash injuries per year, out of a population of ~210M drivers. 1 in 72.

Odds of being involved in a traffic crash (per car)- 2.9M crash injuries per year, out of ~260M. 1 in 89.

I'll try to find better sources for the numbers, NHTSA's non-fatal data isn't immediately apparent.

BR549 wrote:Folks--it's not about the odds-----it's about the stakes (my family member or me), which I think OG was referring to.

Thats a good reason to buy lottery tickets. It's not about the odds, it's about the payoff.

Tamie wrote:

BR549 wrote:Folks--it's not about the odds-----it's about the stakes (my family member or me), which I think OG was referring to.

Thats a good reason to buy lottery tickets. It's not about the odds, it's about the payoff.

And the odds are the bad reason.

BR549 wrote:Folks--it's not about the odds-----it's about the stakes (my family member or me), which I think OG was referring to.

Beautifully put! If someone doesn't get that, there's no helping them.

Oldgringo wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't the odds of anything happening, 1 out of ???????

Then why is it that 4 out of 5 Dentists recommend Crest?

WildBill wrote:

Oldgringo wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't the odds of anything happening, 1 out of ???????

Then why is it that 4 out of 5 Dentists recommend Crest?

It's hard to get that 1/4 dentist to talk right. It's kinda' like that 1/3 kid that everyone has. They just ain't right.

Dentists? It's impossible for patients to talk right with the suction tube in your mouth, even if they don't use novocaine.

If you buy lotto tickets because you think you might win, you should never buy a plane ticket.

Unless you also buy trip life insurance.

A old coworker of mine used to say that "The lottery is a tax on the mathematically inept".