how random are shootings?

[smyrna]

From another thread...

...The fact that several happen in a short time is just a statistical blip, like two unrelated plane crashes the same day.

It also can't be repeated often enough that every day, millions of people go to the range, go hunting. or carry a sidearm (LEOs and non-LEOs) with no one getting hurt. These lunatics are a tiny fraction of the population.

- Jim

If I understand what Jim is saying here, then these mass shootings are so random and statistically insignificant that as a member of the general population, I have a greater chance of being a victim of a personal crime (robbery, rape, theft, etc.) than I do becoming a victim of a mass shooting. In fact, while antis usually argue their emotional cases from the standpoint of the mass shooting scenario, some in favor of concealed carry argue from the standpoint of being a victim of crime in general.

While I agree that these incidents are statistically rare compared to crime in general and that these lunatics are indeed a tiny part of the population, what I do find interesting is that it seems that most of these mass shootings happen late winter or early spring. I don't have any data to back it up, but most shootings that I remember seem to have happened in a cluster during the first months of a new year. Could this explain the "statistical blip"? Are people more likely to go coo coo for cocoa puffs at a certain time of year? I know educators, prison workers, and hospital personnel who will swear that peoples' capacity for agressive behavior increases during this period of the year. I dunno...just got me to thinking.

[Stupid]

For married guys, they tend to go coo coo during certain days of the month.

[Oldgringo]

smyrna wrote:

...most of these mass shootings happen late winter or early spring....

Do you reckon that "Cabin Fever" has anything to do with the timing of events?

[WildBill]

While I agree that these incidents are statistically rare compared to crime in general and that these lunatics are indeed a tiny part of the population, what I do find interesting is that it seems that most of these mass shootings happen late winter or early spring. I don't have any data to back it up, but most shootings that I remember seem to have happened in a cluster during the first months of a new year. Could this explain the "statistical blip"? Are people more likely to go coo coo for cocoa puffs at a certain time of year?

I just read somewhere that they blamed it on the full moon. Sometimes people remember what they want to remember. I think that, by definition, a "statistical blip" can not be explained. Come back with some data and I'll give you my opinion.

[seamusTX]

We can look at the data in the article from the Chicago Tribune:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... 5798.story" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

January 0
February 1
March 5
April 2
May 1
June 0
July 2
August 1
September 0
October 1
December 1

I left out Kent State, because there was nothing random about that.

I don't have enough command of statistics to say whether the number of incidents in March is significant in this small a data set.

I can think of a few factors that would contribute to murders, suicides, and other violent crimes occurring early in the year:

• In much of the U.S., by late winter, people have been through six months of miserable weather. They are depressed and have cabin fever.
• If the holidays didn't live up to one's expectations (which they often don't), that makes the depression worse.
• Many of these mass murders are committed by students in their own school, or a school that they recently dropped out of (like the one in Germany this week).
  
  If you're going to fail in school, you know it by March (after the mid-terms). You haven't accomplished anything all year. You don't have a date for the prom....
• In Southern California, although the climate is mild, they have Santa Ana winds that supposedly make people very edgy.

Harris and Klebold specifically planned their evil deeds for Hitler's birthday, so that's not random, either.

There are in fact small waves of copycat crimes. When some killer makes a big splash in the news, some pathetic mopes will try to imitate him. However, they usually screw up by trying to buy a weapon illegally from an undercover cop, or lose their nerve when confronted by someone in authority.

I dunno. I'm not a criminologist. I just try to avoid jumping to conclusions without a rational basis.

- Jim

[Taxman]

It appears that there may be a correlation to the mass shootings and it being Income Tax filing season. I know that I have ticked off a few clients this year!

[seamusTX]

Here are some solid data from the FBI: http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/offenses ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They chart violent crimes by month over the period 2000-2004. July is consistently the worst month, but the difference from month to month is small.

I'm inclined to say that there is no correlation between violent crimes and the month of the year, until proven otherwise.

The graphs in this report also illustrate the steady decline in the rate of violent crime over the period. Violent crime in this case means murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.

Crime rates are often biased by the inclusion of misdemeanor assualt. Most of those incidents are fights where no one is seriously injured, and the cops just bust everyone involved to get them off the street.

- Jim

[smyrna]

Here are some solid data from the FBI: http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/offenses ... index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They chart violent crimes by month over the period 2000-2004. July is consistently the worst month, but the difference from month to month is small.

I'm inclined to say that there is no correlation between violent crimes and the month of the year, until proven otherwise.

... Violent crime in this case means murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.

- Jim

I would tend to agree with that assessment. However, my original thoughts were about these mass shooting scenarios.

We can look at the data in the article from the Chicago Tribune:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... 5798.story" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

January 0
February 1
March 5
April 2
May 1
June 0
July 2
August 1
September 0
October 1
December 1

I left out Kent State, because there was nothing random about that.

I don't have enough command of statistics to say whether the number of incidents in March is significant in this small a data set.

I can think of a few factors that would contribute to murders, suicides, and other violent crimes occurring early in the year:

• In much of the U.S., by late winter, people have been through six months of miserable weather. They are depressed and have cabin fever.
• If the holidays didn't live up to one's expectations (which they often don't), that makes the depression worse.
• Many of these mass murders are committed by students in their own school, or a school that they recently dropped out of (like the one in Germany this week).
  
  If you're going to fail in school, you know it by March (after the mid-terms). You haven't accomplished anything all year. You don't have a date for the prom....
• In Southern California, although the climate is mild, they have Santa Ana winds that supposedly make people very edgy.

Harris and Klebold specifically planned their evil deeds for Hitler's birthday, so that's not random, either.

There are in fact small waves of copycat crimes. When some killer makes a big splash in the news, some pathetic mopes will try to imitate him. However, they usually screw up by trying to buy a weapon illegally from an undercover cop, or lose their nerve when confronted by someone in authority.

I dunno. I'm not a criminologist. I just try to avoid jumping to conclusions without a rational basis.

- Jim

This data on mass shootings does at least anecdotally support the supposition that you are more likely to be involved in a mass shooting scenario at a certain time of year. Whether it is statistically significant or not...I dunno.

I do however agree with your assessment of factors that could contribute to an unstable person committing such a crime at this time of year.

I just read somewhere that they blamed it on the full moon. Sometimes people remember what they want to remember. I think that, by definition, a "statistical blip" can not be explained. Come back with some data and I'll give you my opinion.

Call me crazy, but I believe that people are influenced by cyclical events from psysiological functions to even the phase of the moon or season of the year. Notice I said, "influenced" and not , "blamed". In that regard, I think we are not that far removed from the rest of the animal kingdom. What separates us is a moral compass and the ability to reason, both of which these lunatics that commit these crimes sometimes fail to develop or even possess.

[Oldgringo]

smyrna wrote:

...I think we are not that far removed from the rest of the animal kingdom...

Do opposable thumbs count for anything?

[mr surveyor]

I think it is possible to relate a lot of mental stress induced actions to the "short daylight" periods of the year. "Cabin fever" is an example of how individuals can be driven into a form of introversion or depression, and I think has been generally proven to be a result of low light exposure. And, as for the "full moon" effect.... ask any first responder, ambulance worker, ER staff, cop, etc., about their experiences with "Full Moon Friday". I know from my own past experience on ambulance calls that there was no rest for the crew on Full Moon Friday.

I do believe that people that are prone to do stupid things, will do stupid things. I also believe there are outside influences that may trigger the timing as well.

Oh, and I am not a psycologist.... (did I spell that right...obviously I ain't one)

surv

[bkblaw84]

[bdickens]

It would be interesting to see someone apply chaos theory to a study of occurences of this type of event. They do seem to cluster together.

I do know from empirical observation that in my line of work, certain types of jobs will cluster together. I'll go through a spell of doing a lot of brake jobs, for instance and then none will come in for a while.