Brownells email

[PBratton]

So, this evening I received an email from the good folks at Brownells that I am sure alot of you got as well.

They are talking about expected ammo shortages this year.

So, my questions to you all are these:
1. Do you feel that we will be seeing a re-run of the bad old days of 2009 in 2012?

2. Do you think it would be wise to advise folks to stock up?

[alvins]

sounds like fearmongering to me.

[pbwalker]

If Obummer is reelected, which (sadly) I think he will be, I imagine there will be a surge like 2008 / 2009. I'd bet even more so because people are going to think that he's going after 2A now because he doesn't need to worry about campaigning for another term.

[68Charger]

sounds like fearmongering to me.

[PBratton]

That was my impression as well.

I'm not trying to advertise for them, but for those of you that did not get the email, here's a copy:

We made a couple of predictions last month about how to prepare for 2012. If you missed it, we suggested you focus on Ammunition, which we are going to concentrate on in this article.

So, for a quick update: specifically, over the last 30 days, while we were following our own advice and preparing for 2012, we have observed that the ammunition manufacturers productions are at an all-time high and that the customer demand for ammunition is going to more than likely supersede the 2008-2009 “Election-Year Bubble”.

I checked in with one of our bright kids here to find out just what he was getting from his contacts in the industry – what he was hearing – and here is a condensation of what he told me.

General Industry Sentiment –
During the SHOT Show we began to hear rumblings that ammunition was heating up and that scarcity would likely be a concern as the year progressed. This has begun to manifest itself in major ways already. A few examples:

A great friend of ours reported: “Just returned from all the buyer-group shows and they were crazy busy. It’s starting to look like 2009 over again; we’ve been overwhelmed since December 1st. If it continues at this pace, we are going to see some major holes in inventory. The ammo guys are talking about shortages in .223 already . . . here we go again.”

Additionally, we have heard directly from one of the most prominent ammunition manufacturers who is reporting that they are a minimum of 60 to 90 days out on new purchase orders as of today.

Quantities of .223 and 5.56 that seemed to manufacturers at the SHOT Show like they should be plenty for the year are depleted already. Another great friend of ours had an entire warehouse of 5.56 go out in ONE purchase order!

Products to Take Advantage of NOW –
In preparation for this, our group has been working their tail off to secure quantities of the best products to offer to you. A few items we would recommend:

A really great product in 5.56 ammunition is the 5.56mm 62gr 420-Round Ammo Can from Federal Premium. Bulk-packed 5.56 x 45mm NATO ammunition is first run, first-quality ammo with the green-tip M855 (NATO SS109) 62 grain FMJ steel core “penetrator” bullet. Comes in 10-round stripper clips packed in a steel M19A1 ammo can. These have been an incredible seller for us and we have them IN STOCK and ready to ship today.
Great products for Handgun ammunition are the WINCHESTER 500 ROUND AMMO CAN BUNDLES. We’ve taken 10 (50) round boxes of high quality Winchester ammunition and kitted it with a top-of-the-line MTM Molded Ammo Can. Best of all, these kits are available in three flavors and they ALL are in stock and ready to ship today.
105-000-025 9mm WINCHESTER 500 ROUND AMMO CAN BUNDLE
105-000-021 .40 WINCHESTER 500 ROUND AMMO CAN BUNDLE
105-000-019 .45 ACP WINCHESTER 500 ROUND AMMO CAN BUNDLE

Plus, we’re always looking for ways that we can provide you with revolutionary products – that are exclusive to Brownells – and that really can boost your bottom line. That’s why we’ve come up with our Ammo Value Packs. These ammo value packs are unique kits that combine Ammunition, Magazines, Magazine Loaders, and other great items into single stock number solutions for you. We currently have over a dozen innovative Ammo Value packs at brownells.com.

Additionally –
During the last “craze” the run on AR15 magazines was also incredible. We manufactureTHE BEST AR15 MAGAZINES and they are in stock and ready to ship today. Don’t wait on these until they are too hard to get. Better to stock up on them early.

As you look forward, once the loaded ammunition becomes scarce, the run to reloading components begins. Sinclair International has a great inventory of brass, bullets, primers and powder for reloading. Check out what they have available and in stock. You'll be pleased at the choices.

Here at Brownells we're in great shape in inventory as this email goes out, and we're ready to answer your questions and ship your chosen items to you. We can't say that ammo is going to get scarce – we're only keeping our ear to the ground, to the phone and talking to the people who hopefully are reading their tea-leaves correctly. Personally, I'm lying in my own personal supply – after all those matches and prairie-dogs are waiting for me to attend to them. Plus, personally, I just like to be prepared – my nature, I guess.

[alvins]

maybe since brownells started selling ammo recently they are just trying to drum up business.

[cougartex]

The following is part of an email Bud’s Gun Shop sent this week -

“After spending the first six weeks of 2012 attending various firearms industry shows, including the NSSF Shot Show in Las Vegas with the highest dealer attendance of record, there was one obvious recurring theme from every manufacturer we visited with...."we just can't make enough firearms". Although we fully expected another surge later in 2012, it has already started as the ATF continues to report all time record highs in background/NICS checks as well as Conceal Carry/CCW permit applications.

Here's the deal....it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. Every contact and indicator we have tells us that guns and ammo are selling MUCH faster than they can be manufactured. Our suppliers inventories are dropping drastically every day and they are already quoting 4-6 month back orders on all new orders!”

[fishfree]

Marketing.

Still it could easily happen that temporary shortages arise as a result of the stress & politicking that is going to descend on us this year.

On the other hand as Afghan & Iraq shut down there goes a lot of the demand for brass and powder.


But then if Iran & Israel ignite that could lead to WWIII...

Or if.... oooooh I'm getting a headache!

I'll just buy a few extra boxes to stash away and use them sparingly if there is an ammo price spike ahead.