Breaking News: Another Asia airliner missing!

[philip964]

Still not found after a day.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/ ... 1C20141229" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pilot asked for a course change due to weather and control refused the request due to traffic.

This part of the world has lost 3 planes in one year.

[jmra]

Notification on my phone this morning said objects have been spotted in the water.

[philip964]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... tml#page=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oily spots and debris spotted.

[philip964]

http://news.yahoo.com/indonesia-bodies- ... 30727.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RIP

[Dadtodabone]

CIA?

[philip964]

To me it was interesting that a body that was photographed and shown on the internet was naked, except for underwear and did not show trauma, as if the man drowned. There was also a report of an evacuation slide being spotted.

If the plane broke up at some altitude passengers would fall out and their bodies might look like the photo I saw, except for the lack of clothing.

However, when a plane augers in, there is not much left of the passengers.

Could the pilot have managed to ditch the plane?

Could there be hope of survivors?

[Charles L. Cotton]

This is purely a guess on my part. The pilot asked ATC for permission to climb from 32,000 to 38,000 but the request was denied because of other traffic at the higher altitude. This request is usually made to get out of turbulence for passenger comfort. (If a pilot wants to avoid weather before entering it, they usually make a request to deviate from their course, not change altitude.)

Since there was no contact with the aircraft after the request was denied, it makes me think it suffered a catastrophic inflight breakup, possibly of the wing spar or tail. When flying in turbulence, the pilot reduces speed to what is called "maneuvering speed" to avoid just such a problem. (Maneuvering speed is a speed at which the aircraft is capable of experiencing severe turbulence without sustaining structural damage.) However, maneuvering speed is no guarantee of survival if the turbulence is too severe or if the pilot makes a maneuvering error such as a steep bank.

I know we have some professional pilots on the Forum, so please jump in and correct anything I may have wrong. My flight training days are decades in the past. I still know what to do, but I may be rusty as to why.

Chas.

[cb1000rider]

All of that is right. A few things to note, but maybe someone with bigger aircraft experience can comment:

* At those altitudes, the "allowable" speeds are substantially narrowed. If you're high, you have to stay fast.
* At 30,000 feet, maneuvering speed for a A320-200 is about 295 knots. It's cruise speed is approximately 529 knots. That's a pretty decent spread.
* Somewhere between 30,000 feet and 39,000 feet - maneuvering speed and cruise speed get much closer together and end up being almost the same at 39,000 feet.

If the pilot was anticipating being able to climb, he'd want to retain current speed... That would need to be balanced against reducing speed to maneuvering in case of turbulence.
Pilots are not to fly through thunderstorms. Pilots can ignore ATC where they deem it necessary for the safety of the flight, but that's a very hard call to make without hindsight It's also dangerous to ignore ATC.

Bad year for Asia Air, which had a very good record up until recently.

[Beiruty]

The theory the I can propose, considering a body was found with life jacket, and the exit slide was deployed or at least inflated, and the fact that the plane may have been 100 mile from the point of loss of contact with ATC.
1) Plane was flying in a severe thunderstorm
2) Pilot tried to deviate from the his original flight plan
3) For a reason, the airplane lost all electric power and lost both engines and all communication to the ATC (no Mayday call)
4) Pilot tried to glide the airplane and ditch it on the ocean.
5) On impact either the plane broke up or entered the water at deep angle and passengers could not escape their trap.

[G26ster]

Here are the facts. Nothing will be known for certainty until the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder are recovered along with major portions of the aircraft, if possible. Everything else at this point is pure speculation. Some initial reports (i.e. passenger with life vest on) have already been retracted. But, it's just human nature to speculate.

[philip964]

http://news.yahoo.com/airasia-plane-may ... 19123.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

All bodies recovered so far are intact. Speculation that the pilot landed the plane in the water. Report says emergency exit door floating on surface indicated someone opened it. Plane may have been overcome on the surface by a wave and sunk. Reports of a shadow of a plane on the bottom.

[philip964]

http://news.yahoo.com/two-big-parts-air ... 39045.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Two big parts of the plane have been found on the bottom.

The airline did not have authorization to fly that route on the day the plane crashed.