Any Predictions On Gun/Ammo Sales Slow Down

[Abraham]

Does anyone see when or if gun/ammo sales will bottom out?

Will costs ever cycle back to what was once considered normal?

Or, are we now on a permanent Obama alert and it's: BUY, BUY, BUY, exclaimed like an emergency submarine dive!

[frazzled]

I'd proffer it will start to thin out as the hoarders reach critical mass and manufacturers ramp up production. Also if the economy stabilizes and no action is taken on the part of Congress it wil fall off as well. We're in a "bullet bubble." Can I get a bailout?

[tfrazier]

Here' the inside scoop/rumor I got from a guy who claimed to work in one of the larger non-corporate gun shops in the DFW area:

Some stores are putting ammo in the stock rooms at rates as high as 50% and only placing half their incoming supply on the shelves. They figure prices are going to continue to climb and the ammo will sell for much higher prices in the coming months or years.

I don't guess ammo has an expiration date, but it would be interesting and explain a lot if this could be verified. Talk about a hedge fund!

The obvious other explanation is that it's all our fault...we are freaked about what may happen with taxes and bans so we're all buying up and hoarding as much as we can. But then I keep hearing everyone say they can't hoard any because they can't find any to buy.

[txfireguy2003]

But you also hear people like I heard yesterday either here, or on another forum, that go to Walmart at 0600 on the day the truck comes in and buys all the ammo they have. Even calibers that he didn't have a gun for!!! I'm sorry, but that really chaps my posterior section! These people BUY BUY BUY, and prices go UP UP UP, it's worse than gasoline was a year ago. And the gas problem was caused by "hoarders" too, just on the stock market level instead of the individual gun owner level.

[BobCat]

Hey, it is free market, free enterprise. I share your anger and frustration, but this is the price we pay for living with a relatively-free market. Better a panic and hoarders, than a government dictum that an individual can only buy one box of ammunition a week, or own 1,000 rounds maximum (i.e. 2 550 round bulk packs of .22 would put you over into illegality).

If you watch the various web sites (Powder Valley, Midway, Natchezz, Grafs, Midsouth, Wideners, and so forth) you will find powder, primers, and bullets eventually. If you want loaded ammunition you can find that too, but it costs more than it should.

Please don't shoot the messenger.

Regards,
Andrew

[fickman]

Does anyone see when or if gun/ammo sales will bottom out?

The day the ban goes into effect. The day before, however, watch out.

I don't think it's all hype - I think something is going to happen. It may not be the sweeping ban some of the hardcore antis want, but they'll get something across.

Even if the collectors, hoarders, and panicky alarmists get fully stocked up, each day you have previously uninterested citizens deciding to become gun owners, you have an entire crew of new men and women turning 18 or 21, you have the chance of a man getting his wife, siblings, parents, kiddos, or friends interested in shooting. . . .

Whenever we successfully preach the benefits of responsible gun ownership and gain a new convert, we create new competition for ourselves in procuring guns and ammo. I think the benefits outweigh the costs, though.

[tfrazier]

...Whenever we successfully preach the benefits of responsible gun ownership and gain a new convert, we create new competition for ourselves in procuring guns and ammo. I think the benefits outweigh the costs, though.

Amen, Bro!
By the way, my younger brother was at the WalMart in Tyler yesterday (he's been camping out at the rumored stocking times as much as he can just trying to pick up some decent carry ammo) and he bought two boxes of .45 ACP HP, the only two they had to put out. He said the guy behind him in line got a little irritated that he bought both boxes.

Meanwhile, I decided to start casting my own (already doing reloading and well stocked on brass, primers, and powder, but can't find bullets). Everywhere I go trying to find used wheel weights I get the same stories. Somebody else has already bought them out, or like one mom & pop shop in Grapevine told me today, wheel weights have gotten so expensive they're cleaning the old ones and re-using them. Guess my next step is to buy some land with ore and start my own mining operation!

[MFrazier]

My brother (Tim Frazier) made a coment about me camping out at the stores at rumored stocking times. I do visit the stores at set times and have so far found it to be pretty accurate pending employees being on break or hiding somewhere else in the store. I only buy a box or two and don't hord as others are doing. WM is one of the cheapest places in my area
to buy still. What is frustrating about ammo sales is not just ammo supliers but store clerks as well.
I overheard a clerk letting someone know that they would have their ammo hidden behind the counter under something or other. Well after today I learned from another clerk "whose elevator stopped floors shy of top" about how he can check the recieving list for the next day and hold ammo for "certain"folks even cases before they get put on the shelf. He went on about how cases can be picked up and some other ways and times that I will pass along to my friend that happens to be the store manager.
At this time I am not about to buy a case at a time and will buy what I need for my family and me to be able to enjoy the hobby and keep up my focus. You can bet your gun that some of the WM clerks are doing some things that are not right and would get them fired on the spot if they have an upstanding boss catching them.

Tips
Don't look at an empty shelf and walk out think'n they don't have your ammo.
ASK ?s.
Don't ask yes and no questions. They have inbound product invetory sheets that update daily for the next day.
If you are fortunate to have gal like mine they are good at extracting information and even the product when we fail.

[TEX]

Waiting for the bounce or train wreck. Dealers or big time back ordered on guns and ammo. Manufactures have stepped up production. Folks are strarting to fill up the limit they think they need or can afford. Ammunition stamping will never come to be because the technology exists in talk only and no government, especially ours could cope with the cost of actually administering such a thing. Apparently Obama understands how much screwing with the second amendment cost the democrats in the early 90s. The train will run into a wall eventually and dealers will suddenly have more ammo and guns sitting on the shelf than they know what to do with. EVERYTHING comes in cycles. ARs will drop to $800, AKs to $450 and ammo prices will get back to normal (box of 45 for $15) when train "B" runs right up the posterior of train "A". If you have an adaquate and reasonable amount of ammo and guns now, but are paying high prices to secure more, you are a dummy. Myself - holding cash and waiting for the bounce or train wreck. I am not a prophet and do not play one on TV - JMHO.

TEX

[Frost]

I would count on sales being strong until the economy recovers. Which is to say, for the foreseeable future.

[jeeperbryan]

Waiting for the bounce or train wreck. Dealers or big time back ordered on guns and ammo. Manufactures have stepped up production. Folks are strarting to fill up the limit they think they need or can afford. Ammunition stamping will never come to be because the technology exists in talk only and no government, especially ours could cope with the cost of actually administering such a thing. Apparently Obama understands how much screwing with the second amendment cost the democrats in the early 90s. The train will run into a wall eventually and dealers will suddenly have more ammo and guns sitting on the shelf than they know what to do with. EVERYTHING comes in cycles. ARs will drop to $800, AKs to $450 and ammo prices will get back to normal (box of 45 for $15) when train "B" runs right up the posterior of train "A". If you have an adaquate and reasonable amount of ammo and guns now, but are paying high prices to secure more, you are a dummy. Myself - holding cash and waiting for the bounce or train wreck. I am not a prophet and do not play one on TV - JMHO.

TEX

I certainly hope you're right. The problem with cycles is that people have short term memory. This time last year I had friends selling their SUVs, riding public transportation, being "green". Now that gas is cheap they've all forgotten about our oil problem. Enjoy the cheap gas because it won't last.

[Mike1951]

A close friend spoke to a sales rep for ATK (Federal, CCI, Speer). Granted, this isn't from management, but two statements were very believable.

ATK has been operating at 100% production since last August.

They do not intend to expand production, fearing the eventual collapse.